EU's energy production in year 2030 : focus in scenarios, biomass and solar power

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Energy Technology

Vesa Korjula

EU’S ENERGY PRODUCTION IN YEAR 2030 –

FOCUS IN SCENARIOS, BIOMASS AND SOLAR POWER

Inspectors of Thesis: Professor Esa Vakkilainen

Research Assistant Kari Luostarinen

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Vesa Korjula

EU’ Energy Production in EU in Year 2030 – Focus in scenarios, Biomass and Solar Power

Energy Technology Lappeenranta 2020

Master’s Thesis, Energy Economics. Lappeenranta-Lahti University of Technology LUT

56 pages, 12 tables and 47 figures

Keywords: energy, future, scenario, EU, solar, biomass, sustainability

This master's thesis focuses on scenario modellings of five different organizations.

Very widely discussed topics in energy business, biomass and solar energy are also in focus in the thesis. In the future it will become more and more important to make sure that in energy production of biomass it is mainly used residues and not logs. In solar energy focus is on solar power. Technology development of solar power has taken quite huge steps mainly because assisting political actions in China and Germany.

Solar power has wider possibilities for usage than for example thermal solar energy production. Solar power technology will in the future quite rapidly take steps from laboratory knowledge to commercial applications.

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Vesa Korjula

EU:n energiantuotanto vuonna 2030 – Keskittyen skenaarioihin, biomassaan ja aurinkosähköön

Energy Technology Lappeenranta 2020

Diplomityö, Energiatalous, Lappeenrannan-Lahden teknillinen yliopisto LUT

56 sivua, 12 taulukkoa ja 47 kuvaa

Avainsanat: energia, tulevaisuus, skenaario, EU, aurinko, biomassa, kestävyys

Tämä diplomityö keskittyy viiden eri organisaation skenaariomallinnuksiin. Tutkielmassa keskitytään myös energia-alalla erityisesti puhutteleviin biomassaan ja aurinkoenergiaan.

Tulevaisuudessa on yhä tärkeämpää varmistaa, että biomassan energiantuotannossa käytetään pääasiassa tähdeainesta eikä runkopuuta. Aurinkoenergiassa keskitytään aurinkoenergiaan. Aurinkosähköteknologia ottanut kehitysaskeleita sekä kaupalliset markkinat ovat kehittyneet nopeasti Kiinan ja Saksan aktiivisilla poliittisilla toimilla.

Aurinkosähköllä on laajemmat markkinamahdollisuudet kuin esimerkiksi aurinkoenergian lämpötuotannolla. Aurinkoenergiateknologiassa on tulevaisuudessa kehitysaskeleita edessä, kun parempia teknisiä ratkaisuja laboratoriosta tulee kaupallisiin sovelluksiin.

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Technical progress and development interested me as a theme. I am especially attracted to the issues in the energy field, which kind of new technology solutions will appear, ways to forward them, which kind of barriers there are and some political issues. The whole energy business field is also under transition, which is also very interesting. The EU area is a very interesting combination of different kind of people and nations. As a field for research the EU is quite a unique economic union and political leaders are in Brussel, Belgium. EU has a reputation as a climate leader in global scale and it has an opportunity to be an example to other countries as which kind of trading system is useful and effective to deal with climate change. For example, this has influenced politicians in California, United States and China to build up their own Emission Trading Systems. (Reuters, 2020)

This master's thesis focuses on scenario modellings of five different organizations.

Very widely discussed topics in energy business, biomass and solar energy are also in focus in the thesis. From historical perspective biomass-based sources are quite commonly used for energy production especially in Finland, Sweden, Germany and Denmark. Nowadays, biomass resources shipment routes are from one continent to another. It will become more and more important to make sure that in energy production of biomass it is mainly used residues and not logs.

In solar energy focus is on solar power. Technology development of solar power has taken quite huge steps mainly because assisting political actions in China and Germany. Solar power has wider possibilities for usage than for example thermal solar energy production. The potential market is quite narrow for the thermal solar energy production, especially in countries, where it is cold a large part of a year and where is a need for heating buildings, for example in North Europe. Solar power technology will in the future quite rapidly take steps from laboratory knowledge to commercial applications. At present the efficiency of the solar panels in the commercial market is about 15-20%, whereas the efficiency in laboratory is about 35-50% (Wikipedia, 2020)

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EU-27 European Union countries before July 2013: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxemburg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and United Kingdom

EU-28 European Union countries from July 2013: EU-27 and Croatia

EV electric vehicle

EWEA European Wind Energy Association

FFF Fridays For Future

FSU Former Soviet Union

IEA International Energy Agency

GHG greenhouse gas

LDV light duty vehicle

LHV lower heat value

MSW municipal solid waste

NA North America: Canada and United States

OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development OECD Americans Members of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and

Development in North America: Canada, Chile, Mexico, and United States

OECD Europe Members of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development in Europe: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and United Kingdom

ORC Organic Rankine Cycle

PV photovoltaic

RES renewable energy sources

R&D research and development

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UN United Nations

UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

USD United States dollar

WEC World Energy Council

2DS IEA’s Energy Technology Perspectives, 2 °C Scenario

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1 INTRODUCTION

The aim of this Master’s Thesis work is to describe the EU-28’s energy consumption and RES-share, and compare them to the consumption, RES-share and average of the world.

Different of scenarios of the future energy consumption and policies are also described. In the RES-sector the focus is on biomass and solar power. Smart grids are briefly introduced.

In the year 2020 people are more and more concerned about the environmental issues and climate change. In China and in the Europe’s biggest cities the air pollution has become a very serious health problem.

Greta Thunberg started a school strike on 20th August 2018 by standing every day outside the Swedish parliament building. Her demands are that political people must take more effective actions to fight against climate change and people need to listen to scientists about what kind of actions are necessary to do. Many people have been inspired by Thunberg. She has been talking to politicians especially at the United Nations Climate Action Summit in New York in September 2019. Thunberg has inspired a lot of people.

Fridays For Future -movement is developed by influence of Thunberg. Young students gather all over the word usually once or twice in a month on Fridays in front of every country's parliament buildings and demand politicians to take actions for the climate. Time Magazine nominated Thunberg as Person of the Year 2019. Arguments were that Thunberg has led by example and changed worldwide attitude on against climate change.

(NBCNEWS, Time, 2020)

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2 ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN THE WORLD

The primary energy source quantity of the world is about 201 EJ, the electricity and heat output are 90 EJ and the losses are 112 EJ. The overall energy production efficiency is quite poor, about 45% are utilized benefit and 55% is losses. The largest part of losses occurred because there are not many CHP-plants and the conversion efficiency of the transport sector vehicles are only around 30 to 40%. Figure 1 shows energy flows in the power energy sector, transportation fuels are not included. (IEA, Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2013, 2014)

Figure 1. Energy flows in the global power sector in 2010. (IEA, Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2013, 2014)

From figure 1 it is seen that more than 50% of energy sources is losses. Coal and natural gas dominate in primary sources, and the RES-share is very low. The energy production share in CHP-plants is quite low compared to overall energy amount, but there is not so large household heating demand in countries near equator than in northern countries. On the power sector 20 EJ (10%) is RES-share and 151 EJ (75%) is fossil fuels, and 30 EJ (15%) is nuclear power.

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2.1 Energy consumption statistics in the year 2017

IEA collects energy consumption data from different countries over the world. Most statistics about of the industry, transportation fuels and electricity production and consumption are very accurate. In the RES-sector it is quite difficult to make reliable statistics about biomass. People use wood for heating their apartments and for cooking. It is very hard to calculate how much wood from forests are converted to gain energy. There is a need to make some average assumptions on people’s behaviors. Table 1 shows the energy consumptions over eight different groups in the year 2017. (IEA, Statistics, 2020)

Table 1. World’s energy consumption by different groups in the year 2017. (IEA, Sankey, 2020; Internet World Stats, 2020; PRB, 2020; World Bank, 2020)

It is very noteworthy that the TOP 30 countries consumed 81% of the worldwide energy.

EU-28’s (Croatia joined in July 2013) share was only 12% of the total worldwide energy share. Africa and Middle East shares are both 5%; Africa’s RES-share is 65% and Middle East’s less than 1%. The total world’s average RES-share is 20%. TOP 30, OECD and North America have lower RES-shares than world's average. EU-28’s RES-share is 21%, so about the same than world’s average RES-share (20%). BRIC, Asia and Africa have bigger RES-shares than world's average (20%). The energy amount from the primary sources is 787 EJ, so 48% is different kind of losses, because most of the power plants produce only electricity. (IEA, Statistics, 2020)

Rank Area / Group Inhabitants Hydro

[Million] [% ] [EJ] [% ] [EJ] [EJ] [EJ] [EJ] [EJ]

1. TOP 30 2,621 81 329 17 57 37 10.9 6.5 2.5

2. OECD 1,304 38 155 15 24 13 5.0 3.9 1.6

3. BRIC 3,122 34 139 19 27 17 6.6 3.0 0.4

4. Non-OECD Asia 4,494 33 136 23 31 21 5.6 2.9 1.7

5. North America 365 18 72 13 9.1 4.8 2.5 1.4 0.4

6. EU-28 512 12 48 21 9.9 6.6 1.1 1.9 0.3

7. Africa 1,284 6.1 25 65 16 15 0.4 0.1 0.2

8. Middle East 411 5.1 21 0.6 0.13 0.04 0.1 0.02 -

Total 7,621 100 406,828 20 81101 55,651 14,697 7158 3,595

Total World [EJ] 100 407 20 81 56 15 7.2 3.6

Total Share [% ] 20 14 3.6 1.8 0.9

Total RES Share [% ] 69 18 8.8 4.4

Resources [EJ] 787

Effiency [% ] 52

Share

Energy Consumption

Renew- able's share

Renew- able

Biofuels / waste

Solar / Wind / Tide

Geo- thermal

World [Million], [PJ]

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2.2 The World’s TOP 30 and EU-28

80% of the world’s energy consumption is used in the top 30 most consuming countries.

Table 2 shows these countries' consumptions and RES-shares. (IEA, Statistics, 2020)

Table 2. The TOP 30 world’s most energy consuming countries in the year 2017. (IEA, Sankey, 2020; PRB, 2020)

Rank Country Inhabitants Share Hydro

[Million] [% ] [PJ] [% ] [PJ] [PJ] [PJ] [PJ] [PJ]

1. China 1394 21 83,904 14 11818 4,771 4,116 2497 434

2. United States 328 16 63,658 11 7002 4,251 1,089 1276 386

3. India 1371 6.1 24,755 35 8656 7,833 510 313 0

4. Russia 147 5.0 20,429 4.9 1005 332 666 3 4

5. Japan 127 3.0 12,257 10 1247 624 298 231 94

6. Brazil 209 2.3 9,537 54 5139 3,614 1,335 190 0

7. Germany 83 2.3 9,504 20 1931 1,296 73 551 11

8. Canada 37 2.0 8,199 26 2104 573 1,413 118 0

9. Iran 82 2.0 8,136 0.9 75 21 54 0 0

10. South Korea 52 1.9 7,665 4.7 361 301 10 42 8

11. Indonesia 265 1.8 7,274 47 3394 2,408 67 0 919

12. France 65 1.6 6,460 17 1080 750 180 133 17

13. Saudi Arabia 33 1.4 5,891 0 0 0 0 0 0

14. Nigeria 196 1.4 5,542 88 4894 4,277 20 0 0

15. United Kingdom 66 1.3 5,329 14 767 522 21 224 0

16. Mexico 131 1.3 5,118 13 674 380 115 52 127

17. Italy 61 1.2 4,978 23 1142 622 130 160 230

18. Turkey 81 1.1 4,398 17 762 127 210 127 298

19. Thailand 66 1.0 4,142 28 1156 1,101 34 21 0

20. Pakistan 201 0.9 3,773 41 1558 1,447 101 10 0

21. Spain 47 0.9 3,497 20 701 316 68 317 0

22. Australia 24 0.8 3,427 11 373 225 58 90 0

23. Poland 38 0.8 3,144 13 408 341 9.2 57 0.9

24. Taiwan 24 0.7 2,933 3 100 63 20 17 0

25. South Africa 58 0.7 2,839 12 327 282 3.1 41.8 0

26. Argentina 45 0.6 2,555 12 308 162 144 2.3 0

27. Egypt 97 0.6 2,548 5.3 135 76 48 10 0

28. Malaysia 33 0.6 2,537 5 127 30 96 1.2 0

29. Netherlands 17 0.6 2,461 8.4 208 157 0.2 48 3.0

30. 10 0.5 2,213 0.3 6.6 1.9 0 4.7 0

TOP-30 [Million], [PJ] 2,621 329102 17 57457 36905 10887 6536 2532

TOP-30 [EJ] 329 17 57 37 10.9 6.5 2.5

TOP-30 Share [% ] 17 11 3.3 2.0 0.8

TOP-30 Share of RES [% ] 64 19 11.4 4.4

Renew- able

United Arab Emirates

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In table 2 bolded countries the RES-share of overall energy consumption is higher or lower compare to the average RES-share of the world, which is 21%. When comparing the RES- share of TOP 10 most consuming countries, India and Brazil have the highest shares. USA, Russia, Japan, Iran and South Korea have very low RES-shares, when Germany and Canada have about the same as the world’s average RES-share (20%). In the TOP 30 countries Indonesia’s, Nigeria’s and Pakistan’s RES-shares are quite big, and all have large populations. Indonesia uses some RES in industry, Pakistan has high amount of hydro power and in Nigeria people burn wood. Table 3 shows all EU’s 28 countries energy consumptions shares from the year 2017. Croatia joined in the EU on July 1st, 2013. (IEA, Statistics, 2020)

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Table 3. EU-28’s energy consumption in the year 2017. (IEA, Statistics, 2020; PRB, 2020)

In the bolded countries in the table 3 the RES-shares of overall energy consumption is higher or lower compared to the average RES-share of the world (20%). The EU’s average RES-share is 21%, which is about the same as the world’s average RES-share 20%. The highest RES-shares are in Sweden, Austria, Finland, Portugal, Denmark, Latvia and Estonia. Biomass plays a very big role in these countries, Finland and Sweden have quite lot of forest industry. In Denmark, the wind power’s share has been growing in the last years. The lowest RES-shares are in United Kingdom, Netherlands, Ireland and Luxembourg. In these countries the biomass also has the highest share in the RES-sector.

Germany consumes about 20% of the EU-28’s primary energy. Other EU countries are interested over Germany’s energy policy actions and effects. (IEA, Statistics, 2020)

Rank Country Inhabitants Share Hydro

[Million] [% ] [PJ] [% ] [PJ] [PJ] [PJ] [PJ] [PJ]

1. Germany 83 20 9,504 20 1931 1,296 73 551 11

2. France 65 13 6,460 17 1080 750 180 133 17

3. United Kingdom 66 11 5,329 14 767 522 21 224 0

4. Italy 61 10 4,978 23 1142 622 130 160 230

5. Spain 47 7.2 3,497 20 701 316 68 317 0

6. Poland 38 6.5 3,144 13 408 341 9 57 0.9

7. Netherlands 17 5.1 2,461 8.4 208 157 0.2 48 3.0

8. Belgium 11 3.5 1,705 12 196 159 1 36 0.0

9. Sweden 10 2.9 1,409 60 843 543 235 65 0

10. Austria 8.8 2.4 1,160 38 438 263 138 36 1.5

11. Czech Republic 11 2.4 1,136 17 197 179 6.7 11 0

12. Finland 5.5 2.2 1,073 45 483 412 53 18 0

13. Romania 20 2.1 995 26 257 170 52 33 1.8

14. Hungary 10 2 847 16 133 119 0.8 7.4 5.6

15. Greece 11 1.4 694 16 110 50 14 46 0.4

16. Portugal 10 1.4 687 31 211 130 21 51 8.3

17. Denmark 5.8 1.2 582 44 258 200 0 58 0.2

18. Slovak Republic 5.4 1.0 463 16 75 57 16 2.1 0.4

19. Ireland 4.9 0.9 456 13 61 31 2.5 27 0

20. Bulgaria 7.0 0.9 425 19 79 56 10 11 1.4

21. Croatia 4.1 0.6 307 26 80 55 19 5.2 0.3

22. Lithuania 2.8 0.6 270 25 68 60 2.2 5.2 0

23. Slovenia 2.1 0.4 209 23 47 30 14 1.5 2.0

24. Latvia 1.9 0.3 159 52 82 66 15.8 0.6 0

25. Luxembourg 0.6 0.3 153 8.3 13 11 0.3 1.3 0

26. Estonia 1.3 0.3 123 37 46 43 0.1 2.6 0

27. Cyprus 1.2 0.1 66 12 7.9 3.5 0 4.3 0.1

28. Malta 0.5 0.04 21 6.1 1.3 0.5 0 0.8 0

EU-28 [Million], [PJ] 512 100 48308 21 9922 6642 1083 1913 284

EU-28 [EJ] 48 21 9.9 6.6 1.1 1.9 0.3

EU-28 Share [% ] 21 14 2.2 4.0 0.6

EU-28 Share of RES [% ] 67 11 19 2.9

Renew- able

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2.3 Renewable energy’s shares

Biomass is the main RES used in EU-28 countries; the share is almost 70% of RES. There is not so much improving potential in hydro power plants or rivers to build more than has already been build. Hydro power has a 13% share, and solar, wind and tide have each 17%

share of RES in year the 2017. Solar power has a great potential to grow, in future there will be seen technical improvements and breakthroughs. Wind power has been technically developed quite slowly around 1980 and 2010, when prices have been dropping quite fast between 2000 and 2020. Solar power technology has been developed very fast between 2000 and 2010 and still further, and prices have been dropping also very fast especially between 2005 and 2017. Solar power can have a very big share of the energy production at some stage in the future. (IEA, Statistics, 2020)

2.4 Renewable energy sources and electricity network

One of the main restrictions for RES share getting bigger are that the need of electricity varies in different times of the day and the year. Generally, more electricity and especially heat are needed during the winter than during the summer. RES production varies a lot in different time of the day and by seasons. Solar power can be produced a lot in summer but not so much in winter. Wind power production needs some adjustment power for days when there is no wind. For example, in Denmark wind and solar energy comprises about 40% of the whole energy production and for adjustment power they use hydro and coal power from Sweden, Norway and Germany.

2.5 Restrictions, consumption and production daily and seasonal varieties

In figure 2 the consumption of electricity is highest in July, and it is quite high also in January. Solar power is produced almost only in the summer and wind power only when it is windy. The daily consumption of electricity varies quite a lot. In the nighttime the consumption is lowest about between hours 24 and 6. The consumption from 8 to 16 it is very stable and from 16 to 24 consumption varies depending on how people are behaving, so it can vary a lot of during different days.

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Figure 2. Example of a 24-hour electricity system demand curve on several dates over the year. (IEA, Technology Roadmap: Smart Grids, 2014)

For example, in Germany wind power are produced more in the north, because at the sea there is quite much offshore wind power and solar power more in the north than some days there is consumption. In the south there are a lot of industries and a lot of people to consume electricity. The electricity networks between north and south cannot handle the amounts that are necessary to transport to south. So, they need to use the networks of Poland and Czech Republic, which are not so in modern condition as those in most of Western European countries. There have been some blackouts because of overloads in the electricity grid network.

Figure 3 presents solar and wind power production in Germany on May 25 and 26, 2013. It can be seen that the production of electricity at noon is five times bigger than at midnight.

In East Germany the RES production can be four times bigger than the areal demand. The government has stated that RES energy has priority, while nuclear and fossil powers have second priority in the grid. So when production is sometimes four times bigger than the demand, electricity needs to be exported somewhere. Poland and Czech Republic are investing in a “switch off”-button on the boarders so their grids will stay at balance.

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Figure 3. Wind and solar energy fed into the power grid in Germany on May 25 and 26, 2012. (Institute for Energy Research, 2013)

The production of VRE / solar and wind power varies a lot. There will be need for short time period, from hours to days, and for long time period, days to weeks, storage for electricity. When VRE share in network increases more and more, long time period electricity storages will prevent black out risk at network. Capacity fluctuations can be helped with network connections; shown in figure 4 and figure 5.

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Figure 4. Transmission links between Nordic countries. (IEA, Technology Roadmap: Smart Grids, 2014)

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Figure 5. Bottlenecks in the European electricity network. (IEA, Technology Roadmap: Wind Energy, 2014)

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2.6 Smart grids

Consumption of electricity and RES production varies some during a day and a lot in different seasons so there is a strong need for development of smart grids and storage systems for electricity. Figure 6 shows IEA’s 2D-Scenario’s drivers for smart grid deployment.

Figure 6. Drivers for smart grid deployment. (IEA, Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2013, 2014)

Figure 6 presents different drivers for smart grid deployment.

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Figure 7. Smart grid technologies. (IEA, Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2013, 2014)

In figure 7 are listed different smart grid technologies. The key challenge in the development and deployment of smart grids is the integration of the many individual smart grid technologies. The tracking progress in smart grid deployment is complex and efforts are ongoing to determine appropriate metrics.

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3 FUTURE SCENARIOS AND POLITICS

Different kinds of organizations made their own assumptions about how people, politics and technology will develop and behave in the future. Scenarios are not like crystal balls, they are developed to help politicians, corporate leaders and university research to make decisions. Every organization has its own different kind of motivation aspects and goals.

Multinational corporations, as for example Shell have a priority to sell oil and gas products to a lot of costumers.

3.1 Kyoto Protocol and the United Nations

The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement linked to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which commits its parties by setting internationally binding emission reduction targets. Recognizing that developed countries are principally responsible for the current high levels of GHG emissions in the atmosphere as a result of more than 150 years of industrial activity, the Protocol places a heavier burden on developed nations under the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities”.

(UN, 2020)

The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto, Japan, on 11th December 1997 and entered effect on 16th February 2005. The detailed rules for the implementation of the Protocol were adopted at COP 7 in Marrakesh, Morocco, in 2001, and are referred to as the

“Marrakesh Accords”. Its first commitment period started in 2008 and ended in 2012.

In Doha, Qatar, on 8th December 2012, the “Doha Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol” was adopted. The amendment includes:

- New commitments for Annex 1 Parties to the Kyoto Protocol, which agreed to take commitments in a second commitment period from 1st January 2013 to 31st December 2020

- A revised list of greenhouse gases (GHG) to be reported on by Parties in the second commitment period; and

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- Amendments to several articles of the Kyoto Protocol, which specifically referenced issues pertaining to the first commitment period and which needed to be updated for the second commitment period.

During the first commitment period, 37 industrialized countries and the European Community committed to reduce GHG emissions to an average of five percent against 1990 levels. During the second commitment period, Parties committed to reduce GHG emissions by at least 18 percent below 1990 levels in the eight-year period from 2013 to 2020; however, the composition of Parties in the second commitment period is different from the first.

The Kyoto Protocol is based mainly on national measurements but has also three market- based mechanisms. Those mechanisms are

1) International Emissions Trading

2) Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and 3) Joint implementation (JI)

3.2 IEA – International Energy Agency

IEA is an autonomous organization founded in response to the oil crisis in 1973-1974. It works to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for its member countries. Workers in IEA are from different member states. IEA’s four main areas of focus are today energy security, economic development, environmental awareness, and engagement worldwide.

IEA’s member countries are listed in table 4.

Table4. IEA’s member countries in 2014. (IEA, 2014)

Australia Estonia Hungary New Zealand Spain

Austria European Union Ireland Norway Sweden

Belgium Finland Italy Poland Switzerland

Canada France Japan Portugal Turkey

Czech Republic Germany Luxembourg Republic of Korea United Kingdom Denmark Greece Netherlands Slovak Republic United States

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IEA collects from different fields of expertise knowledge and makes technical roadmaps on special areas of energy. These road maps are good guidelines especially for politicians and researchers.

Figure 8. World primary energy demand by different scenarios. (IEA, World Energy Outlook, 2014)

Figure 8 shows three different IEA’s scenarios for the world primary energy demand.

Table 5. World primary energy demand by fuels and scenarios (Mtoe). (IEA, World Energy Outlook, 2014)

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Table 5 presents the world’s primary energy demand by fuels in three different scenarios.

Figure 9. World primary energy demand by fuels and scenarios, 2009 and 2035 (Mtoe). (IEA, World Energy Outlook, 2014)

Table 9 shows world’s primary energy demand by fuels and three different scenarios in the years 2009 and 2035.

Figure 10. Shares of energy sources in world primary energy demand by different scenarios, 2035. (IEA, World Energy Outlook, 2014)

Figure 10 presents shares of energy sources in world primary energy demand by three different scenarios in 2035.

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3.3 WEC – World Energy Council

WEC is a non-governmental and non-commercial energy foundation. It was created in 1923 after World War I by Scotsman Daniel Dunlop. WEC gathered 40 countries to discuss global energy industry problems. In 2014 WEC has almost 100 national member committees and members are governments and different kinds of business and expert organizations. (WEC, 2014)

3.4 Royal Dutch Shell – International Oil Corporation

Shell is a multinational Dutch-British oil product company. Its main products are oil, natural gas and other petrochemicals products. Shell operates in over 70 countries, has over 90 000 employees, over 30 refineries and chemical plants, produces 3,2 million barrels of oil every day and sold almost 20 million tons of equity LNG in a year. 2013’s revenue was 329 billion Euros, profit was 12 billion Euros, investments in research and development was 1 billion Euros. Shell has spent on developing alternative energies, CCS and CO2- related R&D 1,6 billion Euros between years 2008 and 2012. Shell has about 40 years of experience of scenarios making (from 1972 and it predicted the oil crisis in 1973). (Shell, 2014)

Shell has two scenarios, called Mountains and Oceans. Mountains are quite business as usual, there is now huge technological steps forward. The share of coal would decrease, and gas would increase as primary source of energy. There are more big technological development steps in many different areas in Oceans (Shell, 2020).

3.5 EREC – European Renewable Energy Council and Greenpeace

Greenpeace has published cooperation work scenario called Energy Revolution.

(Greenpeace, 2015. Wikipedia, 2016)

- Founded by a Canadian environmental activist in 1971 - 2.9 million individual supporters

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- General consultative status with the United Nations Economic and Social Council - Non-governmental organization, staff 2400 (2008), volunteers 15 000, budget 237

million Euros in 2011, offices in 55 countries

EREC is a coalition of different kinds of associations working on the RES energy sector.

Members are listed in table 6.

Table 6. Member associations in EREC. (EREC, 2016) AEBIOM European Biomass Association EGEC European Geothermal Energy Council EPIA European Photovoltaic Industry Association EREF European Renewable Energies Federation ESHA European Small Hydropower Association ESTELA European Solar Thermal Elecricity Association ESTIF European Solar Thermal Industry Federation EUBIA European Biomass Industry Association

EUREC Agency European Association of Renewable Energy Research Centres EWEA European Wind Energy Association

Figure 11. Estimated renewable energy share of global final energy consumption 2013. (Greenpeace, 2020)

Figure 11 shows estimated renewable energy share of the global final energy consumption in the year 2013.

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Figure 12. European map showing NREAP Projections for 2020. (EREC, Renewable Pathways towards 2020, 2014)

Figure 12 presents how different European countries meet their national renewable energy action plans and progresses. (EREC, 2014)

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Figure 13. Renewable energy sources in the electricity mix in 2020. (EREC, Renewable Pathways towards 2020, 2014)

Figure 14. Renewable energy sources in the heating and cooling mix in 2020. (EREC, Renewable Pathways towards 2020, 2014)

Figure 15. Renewable energy sources in the transport mix in 2020. (EREC, Renewable Pathways towards 2020, 2014)

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Figures 13, 14 and 15 presents the shares of renewable energy sources in the electricity mix, the heating and cooling mix and the transport mix in Europe in the year 2020. (EREC, 2020)

Figure 16. Energy resources of the world. (EREC, Energy Revolution, 2020)

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Figure 17. Global: Final energy intensity under the Reference scenario and the Energy revolution scenario.

(Greenpeace, 2020)

Figure 17 presents the global final energy intensity in the Reference and the Energy revolutions scenarios from the year 2010 to the year 2050. (Greenpeace, 2020)

Figure 18. Global power plant market 1970 – 2010, excluding China. (Greenpeace, 2020)

Figure 18 ja 19 shows the global and the Europe (EU-27) power plant markets from the year 1970 to the year 2010. (Greenpeace, 2020)

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Figure 19. Europe (EU-27): Power plant market 1970 – 2010. (Greenpeace, 2020)

3.6 Germany’s Energy Revolution

Figure 20. Germany’s electricity generation, demand, and exports 2003-2013. (HBF, 2014)

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Figure 20 shows Germany’s electricity production, demand and exports from the year 2013 to the year 2013. Figure 21 resents changes in Germany’s electricity production by different sources. (HBF, 2014).

Figure 21. Changes in Germany’s electricity generation from 2003 to 2013. (HBF, 2014)

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Figure 22. Germany’s Transition to Green Power. (Spiegel, 2013)

Figure 22 shows Germany’s transition to green electricity production to the year 2020 and the year 2030. (Spiegel, 2013)

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Figure 23. Eastern German wind energy exports. (Institute for Energy Research, 2013)

Figure 23 presents large amount electricity transfers fluids from the East Germany to the West and South Germany, and to Poland and Czech Republic. Figure 24 shows projected annual production of Germany’s new coal plants compared to solar and wind in the year 2013. (The Energy Collective, 2014)

Figure 24. Projected annual production of Germany’s new coal plants versus wind and solar in 2013. (The Energy Collective, 2014)

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4 BIOMASS – WOOD, WASTE

Biomass is the most widely used renewable energy source in the world. Most of it covers different kind of use of wood-based materials. Wood is used in the building sector for heating and cooking stoves. In the industrial sector wood-based biomass is mainly used in forest, pulp and paper industry. They can easily use residues and side products. Biomass also includes any organic materials from plants, agricultural crops and wastes.

Table 7. Typical characteristics of different feedstocks compared to coal. (IEA, Technology Roadmap:

Bioenergy for Heat and Power, 2014)

Table 7 presents a comparison between characteristics of different kind of biomass-based resources to characteristics of anthracite coal. Black liquor, pyrolysis oil and pellets have the highest energy densities but still have only about 30-50% of the energy density of coal.

Comparing biomass-based sources by energy contents, the differences are a little bit lower but still around 30 to 60% lower than coal’s energy content. The main reason for the differences is usually the high moisture content in biomass source, even after these have been dried.

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Figure 25. Global primary bioenergy supply. (IEA, Technology Roadmap: Bioenergy for Heat and Power, 2014)

Figure 25 shows global primary bioenergy supply from 2000 to 2009. Developing Asia, China and Africa are the main users of biomass. In those areas’ biomass, mainly wood, is mostly used to heat buildings and for cooking. OECD Europe’s share is about the same as OECD Americas. (IEA, 2014)

Figure 26. Global bioenergy electricity generation (IEA, Technology Roadmap: Bioenergy for Heat and Power, 2014)

In figure 26 is shown the global bioenergy in electricity generation between 2000 and 2009. OECD Americas and OECD Europe are main users of biomass in the electricity production. In ten years, OECD Europe has tripled the biomass-based electricity production from around 30 to 100 TWh. (IEA, 2014)

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4.1 Production technology and development, different raw materials

Most typical sources of biomass are residues and side flows of forest industry. Most used sources are wood barks, sawdust, pellets and black liqueur, which is utilized in pulp industry. The black liqueur is utilized in a recovery boiler, in which can be collected beneficial chemicals and the residue substance can be burned to produce heat and electricity. Another very common biomass burning boiler is the fluidized bed boiler. In the fluidized bed boilers wood chips and for example residues from households is usually burned. In the water treatment plants the organic material is exploited from wastewater and can be converted to energy in a boiler or digested to bio methane in a digest reactor. There is plenty of research on different kind of technologies, which may improve economics of biomass-based sources. Pyrolysis, bio coal and CCS / CCU have potential for commercial markets. Carbon dioxide may have a lot of potential to be used in the brewery industry.

Figure 27. Examples of different biomass feedstocks, typical feedstock costs, and plant capacities. (IEA, Technology Roadmap: Bioenergy for Heat and Power, 2014)

Figure 27 shows biomass divided in to four different main categories by electricity power amounts for power plant, by energy content of resource and transport distance of resource.

The dividing limits are a little bit flexible. The transport cost of biomass sources increases quite much by distance comparing for example to coal and oil. The main reason is that the heat value of biomass for volume and weight is significantly lower than the heat value of coal and oil. For example, one truck and one ship carry higher amount of energy content of coal and oil than biomass.

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Figure 28. Comparison of bulk density and energy density of different biomass feedstocks. (IEA, Technology Roadmap: Bioenergy for Heat and Power, 2014)

Figure 28 presents the comparison of different biomass feedstocks by bulk density and by energy density. (IEA, 2014)

Figure 29. Overview of conversion technologies and their current development status. (IEA, Technology Roadmap: Bioenergy for Heat and Power, 2014)

Figure 29 shows the overview of different kind of conversion technologies for biomass- based feedstocks and their development status. (IEA, 2014)

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4.2 Supply: transport, logistics, raw materials, sustainability

Figure 30. Environmental, social and economic aspects of biofuel and bioenergy production. (IEA, Technology Roadmap: Biofuels for Transport 2014)

Figure 30 presents biomass-based energy productions sustainability divided into three different areas. Those areas are social, environment and economic. (IEA, 2014)

Figure 31. World biomass shipping today. (IEA, Technology Roadmap: Biofuels for Transport 2011, 2014)

Wood pellets are the most important energy biomass traded globally. From 2000 to 2010 EU’s pellet production, demand and imports have increased around tenfold. Trade inside EU is very significant but quite large amounts are also transported mainly from Russia, Canada and the United States. In the figure 31 are shown amounts of wood pellet trade around the world. (WEC, 2014)

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Figure 32. Major global wood pellet trade streams in 2011 [kt]. (WEC, World Energy Resources, 2013)

Figure 32 presents the major global wood pellet transport and trading streams in the year 2011. Some amounts of pellets are also transported from Asia, Africa and Australia.

Eastern Europe is a more rural area than Western Europe and has more forest, so pellets are traded and transported from east to west. (WEC, 2013)

Figure 33. Lifecycle GHG emissions (excluding land use change) per unit of output for a range of bioenergy (green) and fossil (black) options. (IEA, Technology Roadmap: Biofuels for Transport, 2014)

In figure 33 are compared greenhouse gases from fossil fuels to biomass. Biomass is usually the new source for energy production, when replacing fossil sources to something else. In these cases, the reduction in the amount of greenhouse gases is significant. (IEA, 2014)

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4.4 Supports, politics, taxes, prices, different raw materials

Table 8. Milestones for feedstocks and sustainability. (IEA, Technology Roadmap: Bioenergy for Heat and Power, 2014)

Table 8 presents different milestones for feedstocks and sustainability from the year 2012 to 2020, 2030 and 2050. (IEA, 2014)

4.6 Future Outlooks

Figure 34 presents a comparison of heat production costs between bioenergy, heating oil and natural gas in the year 2010 and 2030. To meet IEA’s 2D-scenario OECD Europe will need almost 30 billion USD investments in bioenergy between years 2010 and 2030.

During the same time Eastern Europe and FSU need almost 10 billion USD investments, so the whole EU needs to invest around 35 to 40 billion USD. The need of investments of OECD Europe compared to the needs of other areas is show in table 9. (IEA, 2014)

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Figure 34. Bioenergy heat production costs 2010 and 2030, compared to heating oil and natural gas heat production. (IEA, Technology Roadmap: Bioenergy for Heat and Power, 2014)

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Table 9. Investment needs (billion USD) in bioenergy electricity generation capacity, including co-firing, in different world regions. (IEA, Technology Roadmap: Bioenergy for Heat and Power, 2014)

EU’s investment need, around 35 billion USD, is only about 12% of the need oh the whole world from the year 2010 to the year 2030. It is noteworthy that the investment need between 2030 and 2050 is also around 35 billion USD and is, comparing to the need of the whole world, about 17%. (IEA, 2014)

Table 10. Milestones for technology improvements. (IEA, Technology Roadmap: Bioenergy for Heat and Power, 2014)

Table 10 presents milestones for technology improvements. (IEA, 2014)

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5 SOLAR POWER

Typically, the solar energy application is a solar panel. The solar panel is a photovoltaic module as package of solar cells. The most common application for solar energy is a solar photovoltaic (PV), solar panels of which produce electricity.

Figure 35. Photovoltaic Solar Elecricity Potential in European Countries. (European Commission, SolarGIS, 2020)

Figure 35 shows that in the South Europe there is a lot potential solar radiation to convert to energy and in the Northern Europe the potential is smallest in Europe. In Central Europe the potential is quite average comparing to the North and the South. On yearly base the

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exploited potential is almost the same in North than in the Central, because in the North the sun shines more time daily than in Central. Normally the best angle to get benfit of the sun radiation is to place panels on 15-17 degrees angle, and when using angle adjustable panels, the North can take more advantage of the sun radiation.

Figure 36. European total solar PV grid-connected capacity 2000 – 2016. (SolarPower Europe, Global Market Outlook 2017, 2018)

Figure 36 shows the European total solar photovoltaic grid-connected capacity from the year 2000 to the year 2016. (SolarPower Europe, 2018)

Figure 37 presents information of the European photovoltaic power market. (SolarPower Europe, 2013)

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Figure 37. European PV power map (MW). (SolarPower Europe, Global Market Outlook, 2013)

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5.1 Production, lifetime, efficiency

In the last year’s governments and companies have been investing on photovoltaic solar research and development. (IEA, Technology Roadmap: Solar Photovoltaic Energy, 2014)

Figure 38. Solar PV installed capacities in leading countries. (IEA, Technology Roadmap: Solar Photovoltaic Energy, 2014)

Figure 38 shows installed solar PV capacities in leading countries in the years 2000, 2004 and 2008. A handful of countries with strong policy regimes account for 80% of global installed PV capacity; new countries have emerged as important players in the past few years. (IEA, 2014)

Figure 39. Main CSP technologies. (IEA, Technology Roadmap: Solar Thermal Electricity, 2014)

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Figure 39 presents main concentrated solar power technologies. Most current CSP plants are based on trough technology, but tower technology is increasing and linear Fresnel installations emerging. (IEA, 2014)

Figure 40. Weekly production of solar and wind energy in Germany 2013. (IEA, Technology Roadmap:

Solar Photovoltaic Energy, 2014)

Figure 40 shows weekly electricity production of solar and wind in Germany in the year 2013. Solar and wind energy productions have lowest and highest production times on different seasons. (IEA, 2014)

Figure 41. Hourly electricity consumption profiles for different building types in Germany. (IEA, Technology Roadmap: Sola Photovoltaic Energy, 2014)

Figure 41 presents different hourly electricity profiles for different building types in Germany. (IEA, 2014)

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5.2 Cost of constructions, supports, politics, R&D

Table 11. Typical PV system prices in 2013 in selected countries [USD]. (IEA, Technology Roadmap: Sola Photovoltaic Energy, 2014))

Table 11 shows typical photovoltaic system prices in selected countries in the year 2013.

China has the lowest prices and the United States has the highest prices. (IEA, 2014)

Figure 42. Investment cost of a 50 MW trough plant with 7-hour storage. (IEA, Technology Roadmap:

Concentrating Solar Power, 2020)

Figure 42 presents investment components of a 50 MW plant with 7-hour storage. (IEA, 2020)

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In Spain, the government is planning to collect taxes from people who produce solar power electricity and are selling it to main grid. Spain has very big national debt, and many people are unemployed, so they consider different kind of ways to collect money/taxes.

This can lead in other countries that people are afraid to install solar panels on their houses.

In the world there is no other country that is taxing on solar power production; Spain would then be the first one. (BBC, 2013)

5.3 Future Outlooks

The efficiency of commercial solar power cells may continue to improve relatively fast compared to the evolution from the year 2000 to the year 2015. The technology solutions from laboratory discoveries will be commercially available in the future. The development in China will affect quite much the commercial markets development and the prices of solar panels.

Figure 44 shows IEA’s roadmap vision for solar heating and cooling. (IEA, 2020)

Figure 43. Growth of CSP production under four scenarios [TWh/a]. (IEA, Technology Roadmap:

Concentrating Solar Power, 2020)

Table 12 presents top Europeans solar PV market’s prospects. (SolarPower, 2018) Figure 44 shows IEA’s roadmap vision for solar heating and cooling. (IEA, 2020)

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Table 12. Top European solar pv market’s prospects. (SolarPower Europe, Global Market Outlook, 2018)

Figure 44. IEA’s Roadmap vision for solar heating and cooling [EJ/a]. (IEA, Technology Roadmap: Solar Heating and Cooling, 2020)

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6 FUTURE PROSPECTS AND FORESIGHT

Every EU country has different kind of plans and annual time frames to achieve carbon neutral energy productions. The EU facilitates these plans thorough the Green Deal Invest Program.

Figure 45. Centralized generation systems waste more than two thirds of their original energy input.

(Greenpeace, Energy Revolution, 2016)

Figure 45 presents the energy units flow from power plant to household use. On the way some amount of the primary energy is always lost. (Greenpeace, 2016)

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Figure 46. Future city. (Greenpeace, 2016)

Figure 46 shows one example of what a future city would look like. Figure 47 presents the smart-grid vision for the energy revolution. (Greenpeace, 2016)

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Figure 47. The smart-grid vision for the energy revolution. (Greenpeace, 2016)

In the future EU's energy policy will assert financial punishment when using fossil fuels, so gradually renewable sources and low carbon technologies will compete for shares of energy production with fossil fuels.

EU's energy production in year 2030 : focus in scenarios, biomass and solar power