MSW generation

The generation of MSW is highly influenced by the economic status of the waste generators so, the higher the income of the waste generators the more waste is generated. Local factors such as the standard of living, consumption patterns, industrialization and commercial practices play a major roll and reveals important data for waste generation (Eawag, 2008).

The waste increment tends to vary greatly among regions, countries and even from city to city within the same country, despite their size. It might be thought that the bigger the population is, the larger the amount of waste. However, MSW has in some cases little in common to the population in number. Experts agree that economic indicators like Gross National Product (GDP) and Gross National Income (GNI) could have a more powerful correlation with the volume of waste generated within the countries (Daniel Hoornweg & Bhada-Tata, 2012; Letcher &

Vallero, 2011; Williams, 2005). For that reason in this thesis the classification of the World's Economies according GNI Per Capita will be used for differentiating developing countries from developed countries (see table 3).

Table 3. Operational Classification of the World's Economies according GNI Per Capita (2015).

Note: Adapted from http://data.worldbank.org/news/new-country-classifications-2015.Copyright © 2015 The World Bank Group, All Rights Reserved.

Besides, economic indicators and population growth, MSW generation is influenced by other relevant factors such as: the waste collection system and its frequency, family income level, residence type, education, seasons, culture and social practices (Letcher & Vallero, 2011, p. 110; UNEP - United Nations Environmental Programme, 2011, p. 297)

General categorization Income group Limit values GNI per capita (USD$) Developing countries Low income countries Lower-income ( -/=) $ 1,045

Middle income countries Lower-Middle-income (+)$ 1,045 until $4,125 Upper-middle-income +$4,125 to $12,736 Developed countries High income countries:

OECD High-income (=/+) $12,736

17

The latest global report published by The World Bank in 2012, titled “What a waste: A global review of solid waste management”, uses economic indicators and population rates to compare the waste volumes accross the world, and makes a prognostic to the waste generation by the year 2025. The report points out that, during 2010 the MSW generated worldwide reached 1.3 billion tons, and only in 15 years the waste volume is expected to double, so by the year 2025, approximately 2.2 billion tons of municipal waste will be produced (Hoornweg

& Bhada-Tata, 2012, p. 8). Those alarming figures reveals how important is to be prepared and find reasonable ways to handle the increasing waste affluent around the globe.

Looking at the problem closely, MSW generation worldwide in correlation with the population is nowadays virtually unbalanced. High-income-countries having one third of the world’s population, they alone produce almost half of the total waste worldwide, exactly 46% of it. Low-middle-income countries (including India and China) represent, 43% of the world’s population, they produce almost 30% of the world’s MSW. Upper-middle-income countries with a population equivalent 20% worldwide produce nearly to 20% of the waste. And low-income countries with 11% of the world’s population, have the lowest waste generation, contributing with 6% to the waste worldwide(Hoornweg & Bhada-Tata, 2012, pp.

10,11).

Now then, when projecting all together the current data of urban waste generation, country’s GDP and population growth to the year 2025, the results are surprising. It might be expected that the rule of “the higher the income, the higher the waste increment” will show in the projections, however it seems that in the long run the population might impact dramatically the waste generation in the cities of the world.

Figure 2. Urban Waste Generation by Income Level and Year 2010-2025 Note: Retrieved from: (Daniel Hoornweg & Bhada-Tata, 2012, pp. 12, fig. 13).

18

The figure 2 urban waste generation by income level and year 2010-2025 reveals that, by the year 2025, the highest waste increment shall come from developing countries where population is expected to increase dramatically, and from emerging economies where income will continue to rise.

According to calculations made by the author based on the numbers presented in the figure 2, by 2025, lower-income-countries will clearly reach and even exceed the doubling rate of their current waste volume, and their population is expected to increase between 60% and 97%. In Upper-middle-income and high-income countries, the situation seems a bit different, since the population will increase in much smaller rate, in 8% and 18% respectively, yet the waste generation in upper-middle-countries is expected to increase in 48% and for high-income-countries the increment will be only 14%.

Nevertheless, to locate the focal areas where waste raisings represent the biggest problem to the world is important to see the waste statics according to the regions of the world. The figure 3, presents the population of different regions of the world and their waste in volume, during 2010 and the projected values to the year 2025. When analyzing that figure is evident that the waste generation is far away in balance with the amount of population living in the regions.

Figure 3. World's Waste Generation and Population, Values from 2010 Projected to 2025 Note: Adapted from What a Waste: A Global Review of Solid Waste Management, 2012, p. 10, table 4.

Copyright © 2012 The World Bank Group, All Rights Reserved.

If we look at the actual values of 2010 it could be said for instance that:

a) High-income countries (OECD) are responsible of nearly half of the total waste generated around the world.

19

b) MENA (Middle East and North Africa) and LAC (Latin America and Caribbean) generates the same amount of waste daily, even though MENA double the population of LAC.

c) ECA having a population of 227 million people it generates the same amount of waste per day than AFR and SA together, so that 686 million can generate the same amount of waste daily than 227 million people.

In contrast when we look at the projected values to 2025, the increase in population has a higher correlation with amount of waste projected (for obvious reasons), but the waste increment doesn’t follow the same rate for all the regions.

Regions as, EAP, MENA, SA and AFR will almost double their population and the waste generation rate will follow. Meanwhile OECD, ECA and LAC will slightly increase their population size, yet waste generation doesn’t follow the same line.

Interestingly, OECD countries will be the only ones reducing their waste generation. Probably due to the fact that many of them have been straightening their waste management policies during the last decades, and have set strategies and clear targets to tackle the waste problem since its generation all the way to its treatment and safe disposal, but their daily waste generation clearly still keeps exceeding the media around the globe. As it is the case of Canada, US, European/Nordic Countries, Australia, New Zeeland and Japan (Hoornweg &

Bhada-Tata, 2012; Letcher & Vallero, 2011).

The population of LAC will not increase in a considerable rate, yet the wastes generated will nearly double their volume. At the present moment, LAC as virtually all developing and transitional countries have being facing major troubles handling and managing their waste; even though efforts has being made, their waste management systems seems to be ineffective and weak specially regarding collection and safe disposal.