Forming expectations based on experiences

The initial experiences were shown to be very important for choices in section 3.2.2. But even before this very first experience, we had some pre-expectations based on information (Figure 15). Figure 16 displays the proposed model of expectations formation based on experiences. In the beginning, we start by having some expectations, due to word of mouth, marketing, and other information. These pre-expectations lead to the very first exposure to a certain product or product group, which leads to some personal evaluation of the usage experience. This evaluation depends on many different variables—for instance, how well we remember what gratifications we sought (accuracy of remembered expectations) and if these precise gratifications were gained (accuracy of remembered experience). Memory was discussed in section 3.2.1. It is not self-evident that we remember these, because we

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might have gained other than intended gratifications, or something totally irrelevant may disturb the usage experience and memory of it.

Sometimes it is not easy to evaluate dichotomously if we have been satisfied with a particular experience. In many cases we could say that we have been partly satisfied (degree of gratification). There might be some regret, for example, we could regret the loss of the other alternatives when making a particular choice (see opportunity costs in section 3.2.3). Should we have chosen the other film, book, or site instead?

There is a degree of regret in nearly every choice. After these evaluations, we form post exposure expectations. This is in accordance to the studies in Uses and Gratifications and the circular expectations explained in section 2.4.1. This process is also called consumer learning (see section 3.2.1). All of this learning takes time and can also be described as learning costs (see section 3.2.3). There might be some disturbances to consumer learning (poor cognitive ability, memory capacity, or motivation to evaluate). However, if the choice and consuming experience is very important for us, we are more likely to remember and to be quite keen to evaluate.

Up to this point, we have discussed the consumer learning process based on an initial experience, in other words, a consumer learning process making such choices where we are nearly novices. However, especially with media products, we quite rarely are novices and often have quite a lot of experience, at least with similar products. When we use products and thus repeat the process described in the model many times, our level of expertise rises. The level of expertise has a great effect on expectations. Experts tend to make better choices than novices because they have had many more opportunities to learn from their past choices. But the process from this point on is similar for novices and experts. The post exposure expectations based on consumer learning will be highly useful, if were faced with exactly the same choice again in the near future. In reality, most likely there will not be exactly the same situation, and even if we would choose to watch the same film again or read the same book, the experience would be different, since we have already done that once. We need to improvise and generalize about the learned experiences and make a forecast about totally new, but somewhat similar, products and situations. This idea is based on the RDP model about intuitive decision-making explained in section 3.3.3. In other words, we need to apply what we have learned from past experiences to the current situation. This phase depends on the level of cognitive ability (cognitivity of evaluation).

If there is a lot of time between the choices, we could have forgotten some of the things we learned. The time period between choices matters because we form renewed expectations based on what we remember of post-exposure-expectations (accuracy of memory) and based on extra information we have gained since the last choice. For example, we might have seen advertisements, heard friends’

recommendations etc. This leads to renewed expectations. When we use a product and evaluate the experience, we learn and then jump back to the consumer learning phase. Based on the reasoning above, it is argued that in the case of non-novel choice, expectations are formed in a process presented in Figure 16.

Figure 16. The suggested model of forming expectations based on experiences

Expectations based on information (Figure 15) take place before the very first usage decision of any product. The forming of expectations based in information can be seen as the very first box in the process of forming expectations based on experiences (Figure 16). If, however, we already have experiences, the process of

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forming expectations based on extra information starts with the phase “Extra information” near the end of the expectations process (Figure 16).

Figure 17 summarizes the role of expectations and preferences as a link between the consumer and the products in the consideration set. It is vital to be able to link the decision maker with the alternatives in the consideration set. The alternatives cannot evaluate themselves. The expectations-forming phases are simplified in order to provide a more concise figure. Neither expectations nor preferences were empirically tested. It is argued that preferences also play a role when composing the consideration set and choosing a decision goal.

Figure 17. The suggested modelling of consumers’ link to the consideration set by expectations and preferences