Climate change vulnerability in various sectors

Traditionally, agriculture is the leading economic sector in the Kyrgyz Republic, both in terms of value-added and the number of employees. While agriculture is responsible for nearly 20 per cent of the country’s GDP, only a small part of the territory (ca. 7 per cent) can be used for the cultivation of crops, and 85 per cent is pastures.³⁷ In Kyrgyzstan, land is in private ownership, but pastures cannot be trans-ferred to private ownership or lease.³⁸ At the end of 2015, 382,000 (family-operat-ed) farms and 357 agricultural cooperatives were operating in the country.³⁹ During 1991–2011, the average annual damage caused to the major crops by all types of

28 Ibid.

29 Ilyasov et al, ‘Climate Profile of the Kyrgyz Republic’, supra note 13, at 99.

30 The Kyrgyz Republic Ministry of Emergency Situations, ‘The 2014 Report’, supra note 27.

31 Third National Communication, supra note 12.

32 The term ‘firn’ is used to describe an intermediate stage in the transformation of snow to glacier ice; granular, partially consolidated snow that has passed through one summer melt season but is not yet glacial ice.

33 National Report on the Environment, supra note 10.

34 Third National Communication, supra note 12.

35 Programme on Adaptation to Climate Change in the ‘Emergency Situations’ Sector for 2015–2017.

Approved by the order of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Kyrgyz Republic No. 692 of 7 July 2015 (in Russian), at 4.

36 Ibid.

37 Programme on Adaptation to Climate Change of Agriculture and Water Resources for 2016-2020 (in Russian), at 4-5.

38 The Kyrgyz Republic Land Code, 2 June 1999 (in Russian), Article 4 (Ownership of land).

39 Third National Communication, supra note 12.

climate emergencies varied from USD 3 million to USD 6.5 million (2005 som/

USD exchange rate⁴⁰), while droughts and water scarcity specifically contributed at least 57 per cent, but more often 77–93 per cent, to these figures.⁴¹

When it comes to livestock farming, this activity is heavily dependent upon pasture productivity. Two factors can adversely affect pasture productivity: grazing pressure and temperature. For winter pastures, temperature increases have favourable im-pacts in all regions. However, in many regions average temperature increase is not accompanied by a sufficient increase in precipitation.⁴² Resulting higher levels of evaporation thus lead to lower pasture productivity.

The energy sector is also very important to the Kyrgyz economy, with approximately 90 per cent of the country’s electricity being generated by hydropower plants. The Toktogul hydropower plant is the largest operating station, with an installed capac-ity of 1,200 MW.⁴³ Dependence of precipitations and ice volume in glaciers makes the country’s energy supply vulnerable to current climate change. Consequently, all settlements and industries will suffer from a shortage of energy in the future. Before the adoption of the Paris Agreement, a project involving the construction of a coil power station was considered in order to make energy production more stable. For now, this project is blocked. In contrast, however, several new hydropower stations are in close plans to find funding (possibly to take international credits) and to be constructed as soon as possible.

Climatic conditions and economic growth have caused continuous increases in wa-ter consumption (due to the growth in the wawa-ter needs of the agricultural sector).

Between 2008 and 2012, annual intake from natural water sources amounted to 8,469–9,544 million m³ and had increased from year to year. Most of the water is used for irrigation (from 4,445 to 4,4592 million m³), while another one third to one half of the needed amount is lost during transportation (from 1,768 to 2,062 million m³).⁴⁴ The World Bank has developed a projection of how evapotranspira-tion⁴⁵ will change in 2071–2099 as compared to 1951–1981 in RCP2.6 (2°C

tem-40 All International Statistic Data for GBP in connection with Climate Change use methodology of the International Energy Agency (IEA):

The GDP data have been compiled for individual countries at market prices in local currency and annual rates. These data have been scaled up/down to the price levels of 2005 and then converted to US dollars using the yearly average 2005 exchange rates or purchasing power parities (PPPs). Purchasing power parities are the rates of currency conversion that equalize the purchasing power of different currencies. A given sum of money, when converted into different curren-cies at the PPP rates, buys the same basket of goods and services in all countries. In other words, PPPs are the rates of currency conversion which eliminate the differences in price levels between different countries.

Available at <http://www.iea.org/statistics/resources/questionnaires/faq/> (visited 20 July 2016).

41 Ilyasov et al, ‘Climate Profile of the Kyrgyz Republic’, supra note 13, at 99.

42 Third National Communication, supra note 12.

43 National Report on the Environment, supra note 10.

44 National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic, ‘The Environment in‘, supra note 3.

45 Evapotranspiration is the sum of evaporation and plant transpiration from the Earth’s land and water surface to the atmosphere.

perature increase) and RCP8.5 (4°C) scenarios. As climate will become hotter and drier, more water will be needed for irrigation, because more water will be wasted by evapotranspiration. Water consumption for agricultural purposes will increase in either case.

Currently observed climate change impacts on human health include higher weath-er-induced mortality and injury rates; increasing gastrointestinal infections, cardio-vascular, respiratory, and verminous diseases.⁴⁷

More than 20 types of natural ecosystems are found in the Kyrgyz Republic.⁴⁸ Most of the country’s territory is covered by mid-altitude mountain and cryophyte (al-pine) steppe (48,000 km²) and cryophyte (alpine) grasslands (17,000 km²). Despite their role in terms of biodiversity, importance for the local population and preven-tion of landscape degradapreven-tion, forests only occupy 5.6 per cent of the territory.⁴⁹ In all, there are nearly 26,500 virus, bacteria, fungus, plant, and animal species.⁵⁰ Climate change is primarily manifested as changes in the environmental conditions that are habitual and habitable for living organisms. Sustainable ecosystems preserve their structure and keep landscapes operating as before. However, any disruption promotes accelerated formation of new ecosystems that would best fit the altered environment. There is a two-way relationship between biodiversity and climate change: while a changing climate endangers biodiversity, sustainably managed (and therefore resilient) biodiversity can partially compensate for climate change impacts.

Preservation of vegetation cover protects against the loss of the fertile soil layer on mountain slopes and prevents destructive floods and mudflows that annually cause millions of dollars’ worth of damage. Undestroyed natural ecosystems of Kyrgyzstan are strong stabilization sources not only for highlands, but also for adjacent plains, where lands that have been disturbed by humans are no longer able to maintain a sustainable environment.⁵¹ Moisture reduction may increase the share of arid deserts and semi-arid semideserts from approximately 15 per cent in 2000 to 23–50 per cent in 2100.⁵²

46 World Bank Group, Turn Down the Heat: Confronting the New Climate Normal (World Bank, 2014), available at <http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2014/1 1/20/000406484_20141120090713/Rendered/PDF/927040v20WP00O0ull0Report000English.pdf>

(visited 21 April 2016).

47 Third National Communication, supra note 12.

48 ‘Biodiversity conservation priorities of the Kyrgyz Republic till 2024’, supra note 2.

49 National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic ‘The Environment in‘, supra note 3.

50 National Report on the Environment, supra note 10.

51 Third National Communication, supra note 12.

52 Second National Communication, supra note 26.

3 Adaptation

3.1 Introduction

In recent decades, the climate has been changing more rapidly than ever before in the Earth’s history. According to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report,⁵³ climate change will persist, being driven by past, current, and future anthropogenic emis-sions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). The impacts will stay with us for decades and centuries, even if all human-induced emissions come to a stop immediately. There-fore, adaptation efforts seem appropriate in any economic development scenarios and along with any GHG emissions reduction activities.⁵⁴

In Kyrgyzstan, the severity of the adverse impacts of climate change has been rec-ognized by Government. Current losses and damages are too large and evident to ignore urgent adaptation needs. A variety of measures and programmes to reduce the country’s vulnerability, to stabilize the economy, promote security, improve the well-being of the population, and to preserve biological diversity are therefore being scheduled and implemented.