Biomass supply and demand

Biofuel resources, which are primarily utilized for biofuel production, can be divided into 4 clusters based on the feedstock type. The clusters are energy crops, forestry products, agricultural products and waste. Energy crops were separated from the agricultural products because they already present a very substantial group alone. The schematic illustration of biofuel feedstock clusters can be seen in figure 11 below. Energy crops present to be the

major group for today as energy crops are widely utilized for the conventional biofuel production. Energy crops can be divided into food crops and non-food crops. Food crops contain sugarcane, sugar beet, sorghum, corn, wheat, potatoes, cassava, rape seed, soy seed, palm seed and sunflower, whereas non-food crops group is not that substantial and includes only castor beans and jatropha.

Figure 11 Biofuel feedstock clusters (own artwork)

Any type of woody biomass can be utilized, though it is not very widespread to use woody biomass for transportation biofuels production except forest residues. Only several fuels are produced from virgin wood, but they have not reached commercialization stage yet.

Agricultural products are a very diverse group. It can include agricultural residues, animal fats and animal manure. The waste category includes MSW, waste oils, sewage sludge, organic waste and industrial by-products. Algae-based biofuels are still at R&D or demonstration stages and algae are very rarely utilized at the moment so they were not included to the clustering.

Global total final energy consumption in 2013 was 381.8 EJ. Around 28% (106.6 EJ) of global energy use falls on transportation where biofuels represent not a very big share nowadays: in 2013 the transport fuels, which came from biofuels, were 3%. (IEA 2015, 584; IEA 2017) According to IRENA (2014a, 33) the biomass demand for transportation sector in 2010 was 5

Biofuel feedstock

Forestry products

Agricultural products

Energy crops Waste

EJ/yr, whereas according to IEA (2012, as cited in IRENA 2014b, 110) the utilization of biomass in transportation has reached just 2 EJ/yr. The demand of biomass in transportation is about to substantially grow by 2030 and reach 31 EJ/yr. (IRENA 2014a, 33). The main driver of the biomass demand in transportation has been the deployment of blending mandates in major economies as well as the sustained fuel use globally (OECD-FAO 2016b, 116). Total biomass demand for all energy sectors in 2010 was 53 EJ/yr, while total biomass supply exceeded this number and was 56 EJ/yr, which shows that current supply of biomass is sufficient globally. Biomass demand for all sectors in 2030 is forecasted to be 108 EJ/yr, while supply is estimated to be 96-148 EJ/yr. (IRENA 2014a, 33)

The global transportation energy use in 2010 was 99 EJ/yr, which is forecasted to grow and reach 123-132 EJ/yr by 2030 (IEA 2012, as cited in IRENA 2014b, 110). Theoretically biomass potential for 2030, which presents to be 96-148 EJ/yr, could be almost sufficient to satisfy transportation energy demand alone (IRENA 2014a, 33). Though it should be taken into consideration that biomass originating from the forest or agricultural systems can have a negative environmental, social or economic impacts, also known as sustainability concerns.

For instance, some of such constraints can include competition of the biomass with food production or land-use change impacts. To be utilized for biofuels production, it should be demonstrated that the advantages of biomass usage exceed the cost of potential damage it might cause. (Ladanai & Vinterbäck 2009, 18) Therefore, practically the sustainable potential of biomass is lower than theoretical. So biomass cannot satisfy the transportation energy demand alone, it should be used along with the other fuels or electricity.

There are different estimations for 2030 and 2050 years concerning the total biomass supply potential and biomass potential according to the origin of biomass such as for instance energy crops or residues. The current global biomass supply and different estimations for 2030 and 2050 are presented in table 1 below.

Table 1 Current global biomass supply and global biomass potential for 2030 and 2050

Cluster Feedstock type EJ/yr %

Global biomass supply in 2010 (IPCC as cited in WBA 2014, 15)

Forestry products

Fuel wood 36.3 67

Charcoal 3.80 7

Forest residues 0.54 1

Black liquor 0.54 1

Wood industry residues 2.71 5

Recovered wood 3.25 6

Agricultural products Animal by-products 1.63 3

Agricultural by-products 2.17 4

Energy crops Energy crops 1.63 3

Waste MSW and landfill gas 1.63 3

Total 54.2 100

Global biomass potential for 2030 (IRENA 2014a, 27)

Energy crops Energy crops 33-39 (36) 30

Agricultural products and waste

Agricultural residue 19-48 (33.5) 27

Animal and household waste 18 15

Forestry products Fuel wood 5-19 (12) 10

Forest residues 21-24 (22.5) 18

Total 96-148 (122) 100

Global biomass potential for 2030 (WBA as cited in IRENA 2014a, 28)

Energy crops Energy crops 18 12

Agricultural products and waste

Agricultural residue and food waste

62 62

Forestry products Forestry products 70 57

Total 150 100

Global biomass potential for 2050 (IIASA 2012)

Energy crops Energy crops 44-133 (88.5) 41

Agricultural products Agricultural residue 49 23

Animal waste 39 18

Waste MSW 11 5

Forest products Forest residues 19-35 (27) 13

Total 162-267 (214.5) 100

According to IPCC (as cited in WBA 2014, 15) in 2010 global biomass supply was fulfilled

primarily by forestry products such as fuel wood, charcoal, recovered wood and wood industry residues. This is so because in 2010 more than a half of energy demand was caused by traditional buildings, which implies energy demand for cooking and heating by the use of wood. Whereas in 2030 the situation is going to change, and the demand will be caused mainly by transport, power and DH generation. (IRENA 2014a, 33) The split of the demand depending on the energy sector in 2010 and 2030 as well as the comparison are illustrated in figure 12 below.

Notes: Total biomass demand in 2010 is 53 EJ/yr; in 2030 – 108 EJ/yr.

Figure 12 Biomass demand by sectors in 2010 and 2030 (own artwork based on IRENA 2014, 33)

There are two scenarios of the biomass potential for 2030 provided by IRENA and WBA.

According to IRENA (2014a, 27) biomass potential in 2030 will be primarily presented by energy crops, agricultural residues and forest residues. Whereas WBA (as cited in IRENA 2014a, 28) claims that the 2030 biomass potential is going to be provided by agricultural residues, food waste and forestry products. In their scenario energy crops are not going to play substantial role. Concerning 2050, IIASA (2012) affirms that energy crops will present almost half of the biomass potential with agricultural products namely agricultural residues and animal waste playing secondary roles.