• Ei tuloksia

Fast- and drift-ice communities in the Bothnian Bay and the impact of UVA radiation on the Baltic Sea ice ecology

N/A
N/A
Info
Lataa
Protected

Academic year: 2022

Jaa "Fast- and drift-ice communities in the Bothnian Bay and the impact of UVA radiation on the Baltic Sea ice ecology"

Copied!
58
0
0

Kokoteksti

(1)

:$/7(5$1'$1'5e('(1277%(&.)281'$7,21 6&,(17,),&5(32576

1R

)DVWDQGGULIWLFHFRPPXQLWLHV LQWKH%RWKQLDQ%D\

DQGWKHLPSDFWRI89$UDGLDWLRQ RQWKH%DOWLF6HDLFHHFRORJ\

-211$3,,3$5,1(1

$FDGHPLFGLVVHUWDWLRQLQ$TXDWLF6FLHQFHV WREHSUHVHQWHGZLWKWKHSHUPLVVLRQRI

WKH)DFXOW\RI%LRVFLHQFHVRIWKH8QLYHUVLW\RI+HOVLQNL IRUSXEOLFFULWLFLVPLQWKH/HFWXUH5RRP

,QVWLWXWHRI%HKDYLRXUDO6FLHQFHV6LOWDYXRUHQSHQJHU%+HOVLQNL RQ-XQHWKDWQRRQ

+(/6,1.,

(2)

7KLVWKHVLVLVEDVHGRQWKHIROORZLQJSDSHUVZKLFKDUHUHIHUUHGWRLQWKHWH[WE\WKHLU5RPDQQXPHUDOV , 5LQWDOD-03LLSDULQHQ- 8XVLNLYL-'ULIWLFHDQGXQGHULFHZDWHUFRPPXQLWLHVLQWKH

*XOIRI%RWKQLD%DOWLF6HD±3RODU%LRO±

,, 3LLSDULQHQ-.XRVD+ 5LQWDOD-0:LQWHUWLPHHFRORJ\LQ%RWKQLDQ%D\%DOWLF6HD 1XWULHQWVDQGDOJDHLQIDVWLFH±3RODU%LRO±

,,, 3LLSDULQHQ- .XRVD+,PSDFWRI89$UDGLDWLRQRQDOJDHDQGEDFWHULDLQ%DOWLF6HDLFH±

$TXDW0LFURE(FRO±

,9 3LLSDULQHQ-8XVLNLYL- .XRVD+7KHLPSDFWRI89$UDGLDWLRQRQEDFWHULDOFRPPXQLWLHVLQ

%DOWLF6HDLFH0DQXVFULSW

5HVHDUFKDUWLFOHVLQFOXGHGLQWKLVWKHVLVDUHUHSURGXFHGE\WKHNLQGSHUPLVVLRQRI6SULQJHU6FLHQFHDQG

%XVLQHVV0HGLD,,,DQG,QWHU5HVHDUFK,,,

&2175,%87,216

, ,, ,,, ,9

2ULJLQDOLGHD -5 -3-5 -3 -3

6WXG\GHVLJQDQGVDPSOLQJ -5 -3-5 -3 -3-8

'DWDDQDO\VLV -3-5-8.. -3+... -3+. -3-8+.

5HVSRQVLEOHIRUPDQXVFULSW

SUHSDUDWLRQ -3-5 -3+. -3 -3

+. +DUUL.XRVD-3 -RQQD3LLSDULQHQ-5 -DQQH0DUNXV5LQWDOD-8 -DUL8XVLNLYL.. .DL.LYL

6XSHUYLVHGE\ 3URI+DUUL.XRVD

7YlUPLQQH=RRORJLFDO6WDWLRQ

8QLYHUVLW\RI+HOVLQNL

)LQODQG

5HYLHZHGE\ 3URI5XEHQ6RPPDUXJD 'U*HUKDUG'LHFNPDQQ

,QVWLWXWHRI(FRORJ\ $OIUHG:HJHQHU,QVWLWXWHIRU

8QLYHUVLW\RI,QQVEUXFN 3RODUDQG0DULQH5HVHDUFK

$XVWULD *HUPDQ\

([DPLQHGE\ 'U.ODXV0HLQHUV

$XVWUDOLDQ$QWDUFWLF'LYLVLRQDQG

$QWDUFWLF&OLPDWHDQG(FRV\VWHPV &RRSHUDWLYH5HVHDUFK&HQWUH

$XVWUDOLD

(3)

)$67$1''5,)7,&(&20081,7,(6,17+(%27+1,$1%$<$1'7+(

,03$&72)89$5$',$7,21217+(%$/7,&6($,&((&2/2*<

-211$3,,3$5,1(1

3LLSDULQHQ-)DVWDQGGULIWLFHFRPPXQLWLHVLQWKH%RWKQLDQ%D\DQGWKHLPSDFWRI89$UDGLDWLRQRQ WKH%DOWLF6HDLFHHFRORJ\±: $GH1RWWEHFN)RXQGDWLRQ6FL5HS±,6%1 SDSHUEDFN,6%13')

7KHVHDVRQDOVHDLFHFRYHULVRQHRIWKHPDLQFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKH%DOWLF6HD7KHVWUXFWXUDOVLPLODULW\RI

%DOWLF6HDLFHWRSRODUVHDLFHZLWKVDOLQHEULQHLQFOXVLRQVDOVRHQDEOHVWKHIRUPDWLRQRIDFWLYHV\PSDJLF IRRGZHEVLQWKHEUDFNLVK%DOWLF6HDLFH7KHV\PSDJLFFRPPXQLWLHVJHQHUDOO\VKRZDFOHDUVXFFHVVLRQZLWK LQFUHDVLQJOLJKWOHYHOVIURPWKHORZSURGXFWLYHZLQWHUVWDJHWRLFHDOJDOEORRPVGRPLQDWHGE\GLDWRPV7KH VL]HDQGWKXVWKHFRPPXQLW\VWUXFWXUHRIWKHV\PSDJLFFRPPXQLWLHVDUHVLJQL¿FDQWO\JRYHUQHGE\WKHVL]HRI EULQHLQFOXVLRQVZKLFKLVDIXQFWLRQRIERWKVDOLQLW\DQGWHPSHUDWXUHLQLWLDOO\RIWKHSDUHQWDOZDWHUEXWODWHU RQRIWKHLFH,QWKH%DOWLF6HDWKLVWUDQVODWHVWRGHFUHDVLQJEULQHYROXPHVIURPWKHQRUWKHUQ%DOWLF6HDWR WKH%RWKQLDQ%D\GXHWRWKHLQFUHDVLQJULYHUZDWHULQÀXHQFH7KHJUDGLHQWLVDOVRDFFRPSDQLHGE\FKDQJHV LQRWKHUSK\VLFDOFKHPLFDODQGELRORJLFDOIHDWXUHV+RZHYHUWKHGULIWDQGIDVWLFHLQWKH%RWKQLDQ%D\PD\

GLIIHUJUHDWO\LQWKLVVHQVHDVGULIWLFHPD\KDYHEHHQIRUPHGDWPRUHVRXWKHUQORFDWLRQVZLWKKLJKHUVDOLQLWLHV 7KH¿UVWWKHPHRIWKLVWKHVLVFRYHUVGHVFULSWLYHVWXGLHVRQVHDLFHHFRORJ\IURPULYHULQHLQÀXHQFHGIDVWLFHWR GULIWLFHLQWKH%RWKQLDQ%D\ZKLFKDGGVWRNQRZOHGJHRIWKHHFRORJLFDOVLJQL¿FDQFHRIWKHLFHFRYHUZKLFK FDQODVWXSWRPRQWKVSHU\HDULQWKLVDUHD

6HDLFHIRRGZHEVDUHWRDODUJHGHJUHHOLJKWOLPLWHGDQGLQFUHDVLQJOLJKWLUUDGLDQFHVW\SLFDOO\HQKDQFH WKHSULPDU\SURGXFWLRQLQLFHIXHOOLQJWKHVHFRQGDU\SURGXFWLRQRIRWKHUVHDLFHRUJDQLVPV+RZHYHUDQ\

LQFUHDVHLQVRODUUDGLDWLRQDOVRLQFOXGHVDQLQFUHDVHLQKDUPIXO89$UDGLDWLRQ7KHVHFRQGWKHPHRIWKLV WKHVLVH[DPLQHVWKHVHQVLWLYLW\RIVHDLFHEDFWHULDDQGDOJDHWR89$DQGLVEDVHGRQWZRLQVLWXH[SHULPHQWV 7KHVHUHVXOWVDUHRILPSRUWDQFHZKHQDVVHVVLQJWKHHIIHFWVRIWKLQQLQJRIWKHLFHFRYHUGXHWRFOLPDWHFKDQJH

5DIWLQJDQGWKHIRUPDWLRQRIVQRZLFHDUHFRPPRQSURFHVVHVLQWKHLFH¿HOGRIWKH%RWKQLDQ%D\DQGDV ZDVHYLGHQFHGLQWKLVWKHVLVWKH\PDUNHGO\DIIHFWWKHFKHPLFDODQGELRORJLFDOSURSHUWLHV5DIWLQJDOWHUHGWKH YHUWLFDOGLVWULEXWLRQRIRUJDQLVPVDQGIRUH[DPSOHIRUPHUERWWRPFRPPXQLWLHVZHUHWUDSSHGLQWKHPLGGOHRI WKHQHZUDIWHGLFHFROXPQRUHYHQGLVSODFHGWRWKHVXUIDFH6QRZLFHIRUPDWLRQRQWKHRWKHUKDQGSURYLGHG KDELWDEOHVSDFHDQGFHQWULFGLDWRPVLQSDUWLFXODUVHHPHGWREHQH¿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ÀDJHOODWHVSHFLHVZDVJHQHUDOO\OLQNHGWR ORZHUEULQHYROXPHVZKHUHDVFKDLQIRUPLQJGLDWRPVZHUHPRVWO\FRQFHQWUDWHGLQOD\HUVZLWKODUJHUEULQH YROXPHV&ORVHWRWKHULYHUPRXWKWKHORZEULQHYROXPHVLQWKHERWWRPOD\HUUHVXOWLQJIURPDVWURQJULYHU ZDWHULQÀXHQFHZHUHFRXQWHUDFWHGE\WKHEXLOGXSRIDPDUNHGELRPDVVLQWKHVXUIDFHOD\HUZLWKDQRWDEO\

KLJKHUEULQHYROXPH7KLVHPSKDVL]HVWKHVLJQL¿FDQFHRIVQRZLFHIRUPDWLRQDQGRWKHUODUJHEULQHYROXPH KDELWDWVIRULFHELRPDVVLQWKH%RWKQLDQ%D\

(4)

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

WROHUDQWDQGZDVWKHRQO\FODVVWREHQH¿WIURP89$H[SRVXUH2QWKHFRQWUDU\DOOWKH$OSKD%HWDDQG

*DPPDSURWHREDFWHULDSUHVHQWLQWKHVXUIDFHOD\HUVKRZHG89$VHQVLWLYLW\7KHVHUHVXOWVLQGLFDWHWKDWFKDQJHV LQWKHOLJKW¿HOGRILFHPD\DOWHUWKHFRPPXQLW\VWUXFWXUHDQGDIIHFWWKHIXQFWLRQLQJRILFHIRRGZHEV -RQQD3LLSDULQHQ)LQQLVK(QYLURQPHQW,QVWLWXWH0DULQH5HVHDUFK&HQWUH32%R[), +HOVLQNL)LQODQGDQG7YlUPLQQH=RRORJLFDO6WDWLRQ-$3DOPpQLQWLH),+DQNR)LQODQG

(5)

&217(176

,1752'8&7,21

%DOWLF6HD 6WUXFWXUHRI%DOWLF6HDLFH

%DOWLF6HDLFHELRWD

89$ 89$GDPDJHDQGUHSDLUPHFKDQLVPV

6RODUUDGLDWLRQDQGVHDLFH

2SWLFDOSURSHUWLHVRI%DOWLF6HDLFH

89$DQGVHDLFHRUJDQLVPV

287/,1(2)7+(7+(6,6 678'<$5($

%RWKQLDQ%D\

7YlUPLQQH 0$7(5,$/6$1'0(7+2'6 6DPSOLQJ

%RWKQLDQ%D\

89$H[SHULPHQWV

0HDVXUHPHQWV

3K\VLFRFKHPLFDOYDULDEOHV

&KORURSK\OODDQGELRPDVV

3KRWRV\QWKHVLVLUUDGLDQFHPHDVXUHPHQWV

%DFWHULDOQXPEHUVDQGSURGXFWLRQ

0ROHFXODUPHWKRGV

6WDWLVWLFV 5(68/76$1'',6&866,21 'ULIWLFHDQGIDVWLFHFRPPXQLWLHVLQWKH%RWKQLDQ%D\,,, ,FHVWUXFWXUHSK\VLFDOSURFHVVHVDQGWKHLUVLJQL¿FDQFHIRULFHELRWD

&RPSDULVRQRIWKHGULIWDQGIDVWLFHFRPPXQLWLHV 6XFFHVVLRQRIGLDWRPVLQ%DOWLF6HDLFH

3KRWRV\QWKHWLFSDUDPHWHUV

(IIHFWVRI89$RQVHDLFHHFRORJ\,,,,9

3K\VLFDOHQYLURQPHQWDQGUDGLDWLRQ

$OJDH

%DFWHULDOSURGXFWLRQ

%DFWHULDOFRPPXQLW\FRPSRVLWLRQDQGWKHUHVSRQVHWR89$,9 6LJQL¿FDQFHLQIXWXUHFOLPDWHVFHQDULRV

&21&/86,216

$&.12:/('*(0(176 5()(5(1&(6

(6)
(7)

,1752'8&7,21

%DOWLF6HD

%\FRPSULVLQJDQDUHDRIDERXWNP DQGKDYLQJDPHDQVDOLQLW\RIWKH%DOWLF6HD LVWKHZRUOG¶VVHFRQGODUJHVWEUDFNLVKZDWHU ERG\7KH%DOWLF6HDKDVDQDYHUDJHGHSWKRI PDQGLVVWURQJO\VWUDWL¿HGZLWKUHJDUGVWR VDOLQLW\DQGWHPSHUDWXUH%DVHGRQVDOLQLW\

WKH%DOWLF6HDZDWHUFROXPQLVGLYLGHGLQWR WKUHHOD\HUVXSSHUOD\HUKDORFOLQHDQGORZHU OD\HUZKLFKDUHSUHVHQWDURXQGWKH\HDU /HSSlUDQWD 0\UEHUJ6HDVRQDO YDULDWLRQLQDLUWHPSHUDWXUHUHVXOWVLQWKH IRUPDWLRQRIDGGLWLRQDOWUDQVLHQWVXEOD\HUVLQ WKHXSSHUOD\HULQVXPPHUZKHQWKHSUHVHQFH RIDWKHUPRFOLQHDQGDFROGHUGLFRWKHUPDO OD\HUFDQEHREVHUYHG7KHVDOLQLW\LQWKH XSSHUOD\HUGHFUHDVHVIURP±LQWKH .DWWHJDWWR±LQWKH%RWKQLDQ%D\ZKLFKLV DWWULEXWDEOHWRWKHKLJKLQÀRZRIIUHVKZDWHU IURPWKHQXPHURXVULYHUVLQWKHVXUURXQGLQJ FDWFKPHQWDUHDRINPDQGWRWKH SRVLWLYHZDWHUEDODQFHLHWKHULYHULQÀRZ DQGSUHFLSLWDWLRQH[FHHGVHYDSRUDWLRQVHH /HSSlUDQWD 0\UEHUJ 7KH ULYHU ZDWHUQRWRQO\DIIHFWVWKHVDOLQLW\EXWEULQJV QXWULHQWVRUJDQLFPDWWHUDQGFRQWDPLQDQWV WRWKH%DOWLF6HDWKHTXDQWLW\DQGTXDOLW\RI WKHORDGVGHSHQGLQJRQWKHFDWFKPHQWDUHD RIWKHULYHU'XHWRWKHEUDFNLVKQDWXUHDQG VKRUWHYROXWLRQDU\KLVWRU\RIF\HDUV WKHELRGLYHUVLW\RIWKH%DOWLF6HDLVORZDV WKHVDOLQLW\LVJHQHUDOO\WRRORZIRUPDULQH VSHFLHVDQGWRRKLJKIRUIUHVKZDWHUVSHFLHV

2QHRIWKHPDLQFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKH

%DOWLF6HDLVWKHVHDVRQDOLFHFRYHU7KH GXUDWLRQH[WHQWDQGWKLFNQHVVRIWKHVHDLFH GHSHQGRQWKHVHYHULW\RIWKHZLQWHUDQG VKRZODUJHLQWHUDQQXDOYDULDELOLW\,QYHU\

PLOGZLQWHUVRQO\DVPDOOSDUWPLQLPXP LQRIWKH%DOWLF6HDKDVDQLFH

FRYHUZKHUHDVGXULQJYHU\FROGZLQWHUVWKH ZKROH%DOWLF6HDLVLFHFRYHUHG/HSSlUDQWD 0\UEHUJ7KHODVWVHYHUHZLQWHUZDV UHFRUGHGLQPD[DQQXDOLFHH[WHQW!

NPDIWHUZKLFKWKHZLQWHUVKDYH EHHQPLOGDQGRQDYHUDJHOHVVWKDQRI WKH%DOWLF6HDKDVEHHQLFHFRYHUHG9DLQLR LQ/HSSlUDQWD 0\UEHUJ

,QWKH%DOWLF6HDIUHH]LQJVWDUWVIURPWKH

%RWKQLDQ%D\LQPLG1RYHPEHUDQGSURFHHGV WRWKH*XOIRI)LQODQGZKLFKEHFRPHVLFH FRYHUHGDSSUR[LPDWHO\DPRQWKODWHU0HOWLQJ SURFHHGVLQWKHRSSRVLWHGLUHFWLRQVWDUWLQJ LQ VRXWKHUQ ORFDWLRQV LQ 0DUFK 7KH VHD LFHZKLFKLVIRUPHGDORQJWKHFRDVWDQGLV DWWDFKHGWRWKHVKRUHRUWRWKHLVODQGVLQWKH DUFKLSHODJRLVFDOOHGIDVWLFH$VWKHQDPH LPSOLHVLWUHPDLQVRQWKHVDPHVSRWIRUPRVW RIWKHWLPH$WDFHUWDLQZDWHUGHSWKWKHLFH EHFRPHVG\QDPLFLHLWLVPRYHGE\ZLQGV DQGFXUUHQWVDQGLVWKXVFDOOHGGULIWLFH,QWKH

%DOWLF6HDWKHERXQGDU\GHSWKEHWZHHQIDVW DQGGULIWLFHGHSHQGVRQWKHLFHWKLFNQHVVDQG LVJHQHUDOO\EHWZHHQDQGP/HSSlUDQWD +RZHYHULQYHU\FROGZLQWHUVVXFK DVWKHZKROH%RWKQLDQ%D\LFHFRYHU PD\EHFRPHLPPRELOHIDVWLFH/HSSlUDQWD 7KHSUHYDLOLQJVRXWKZHVWZLQGVGXULQJ

%DOWLFZLQWHUVWUDQVSRUWWKHGULIWLFHIURP PRUHVRXWKHUQORFDWLRQVWRWKH%RWKQLDQ%D\

IRUPLQJODUJHSDFNLFH¿HOGVZKHUHUDIWLQJ DQGULGJLQJLHG\QDPLFLFHJURZWKSOD\

VLJQL¿FDQW UROHV LQ LFH WKLFNQHVV JURZWK 2PVWHGW*UDQVNRJHWDOE

6WUXFWXUHRI%DOWLF6HDLFH

$W\SLFDOIHDWXUHRIVHDLFHLVLQFOXVLRQVRI KLJKO\VDOLQHOLTXLGEULQH%ULQHLQFOXVLRQV DUH IRUPHG GXULQJ IUHH]LQJ ZKHQ D SDUW RIWKHVDOWUHMHFWHGIURPWKHIRUPLQJLFH FU\VWDO ODWWLFHV LV FRQFHQWUDWHG EHWZHHQ WKHLFHFU\VWDOV1DWXUDOO\IUHVKZDWHULFH

(8)

GRQRWFRQWDLQEULQHLQFOXVLRQVZKLFKVWDUW WRIRUPZKHQWKHVDOLQLW\RISDUHQWZDWHU H[FHHGVPHDQLQJWKDWPRVWRIWKH%DOWLF 6HDLFHLVVWUXFWXUDOO\VLPLODUWRSRODUVHD LFH3DORVXR/HSSlUDQWD 0DQQLQHQ :HHNV HW DO .DZDPXUD HW DO 6LPLODUO\ WR VDOW SDUW RI WKH GLVVROYHGLQRUJDQLFDQGRUJDQLFPDWWHULV DOVRH[SHOOHGIURPWKHLFHGXULQJWKHLFH IRUPDWLRQSURFHVVDQGRQO\DERXW±

LVUHWDLQHGZLWKLQWKHLFH3HWULFK (LFNHQ 7KHGLVVROYHGRUJDQLFPDWWHU'20 LQVHDLFHLVDOORFKWKRQRXVGHULYLQJIURPWKH SDUHQWZDWHURUDXWRFKWKRQRXVGHULYLQJIURP H[XGDWLRQDQGFHOOO\VLVLQLFH,QWKH%DOWLF 6HDWKHVWURQJDOORFKWKRQRXVLQÀXHQFHFDQ EHREVHUYHGLQWKHVHDLFHDVWKHSUHVHQFH RIKXPLFVXEVWDQFHV6WHGPRQHWDO

7KHEULQHLQLFHFDQEHGLVWULEXWHGLQ PXOWLSOHVHSDUDWHEULQHSRFNHWVW\SLFDOIRU

\RXQJLFHRULWFDQEHFRQWDLQHGLQDEULQH FKDQQHOV\VWHPZKHUHEULQHSRFNHWVDUH LQWHUFRQQHFWHGW\SLFDOIRUROGHULFH7KH WRWDOYROXPHRIEULQHLQLFHGHSHQGVRQWKH WHPSHUDWXUHDQGVDOLQLW\RIWKHSDUHQWZDWHU DQGLFHDVZHOODVRQGHVDOLQDWLRQSURFHVVHVLQ LFHVXFKDVJUDYLW\GUDLQDJHEULQHH[SXOVLRQ DQGÀXVKLQJHJ3HWULFK (LFNHQ 'XULQJLFHIRUPDWLRQWHPSHUDWXUHLQYHUVHO\

DIIHFWVWKHYROXPHRIHQWUDSSHGEULQHLH WKHFROGHULWLVWKHPRUHEULQHJHWVWUDSSHG EHWZHHQLFHFU\VWDOV,QWKHIRUPHGLFHVKHHW WKHVDOLQLW\DQGYROXPHRIEULQHYDU\ZLWK WHPSHUDWXUHZKHQWHPSHUDWXUHGHFUHDVHVWKH EULQHFRQFHQWUDWHVLQWRDVPDOOHUYROXPHZLWK KLJKHUVDOLQLW\DQGGXULQJPHOWLQJWKHUHYHUVH KDSSHQV7KHDLUWHPSHUDWXUHYDULHVPRUHWKDQ WKHWHPSHUDWXUHRIXQGHUO\LQJZDWHUDQGWKH YDULDWLRQVLQLFHWHPSHUDWXUHDUHWKXVJUHDWHU LQWKHXSSHULFHWKDQLQWKHORZHUSDUW7KH SUHVHQFHRIVQRZPRGHUDWHVWKHWHPSHUDWXUH YDULDWLRQVDVVQRZLVDQHI¿FLHQWLQVXODWRU 7KHORZDPELHQW%DOWLF6HDVDOLQLW\UHÀHFWV WRWKHEXONLFHVDOLQLW\ZKLFKUDUHO\H[FHHGV

.DZDPXUDHWDO0HLQHUVHWDO

*UDQVNRJHWDODE7KHWRWDOEULQH YROXPHLVDOVROHVVWKDQLQSRODULFHEHLQJ PRVWO\EHORZRIWKHWRWDOLFHYROXPH 0HLQHUVHWDO$YDOXHRILV FRQVLGHUHGDVWKHWKUHVKROGIRUSHUPHDELOLW\

DIWHUZKLFKWKHEULQHSRFNHWVDUHDVVXPHGWR EHLQWHUFRQQHFWHGDQGÀXLGVDUHWUDQVSRUWHG PRUHIUHHO\*ROGHQHWDO+RZHYHU GXHWRWKHORZHUWRWDOEULQHYROXPHVLQWKH

%DOWLF6HDKLJKHUWHPSHUDWXUHVDUHQHHGHG WRUHQGHUWKHLFHSHUPHDEOHLQFRPSDULVRQWR SRODULFH*UDQVNRJHWDOD

7KHIDVWLFHLQWKH%DOWLF6HDW\SLFDOO\

KDVWZROD\HUVRIVWUXFWXUDOO\GLIIHUHQWLFH .DZDPXUDHWDO*UDQVNRJHWDOE 8XVLNLYLHWDO7KHWRSPRVWOD\HULV WHUPHG WKH JUDQXODU OD\HU DQG LW UHÀHFWV WKH LQLWLDO VWDJHV RI LFH IRUPDWLRQ ZKHQ LFHFU\VWDOVJURZHTXDOO\LQDOOGLUHFWLRQV GLDPHWHUPP$IWHUDVROLGLFHFRYHU KDVEHHQIRUPHGWKHLFHFU\VWDOVVWDUWWR JURZPRUHGRZQZDUGVSURGXFLQJFROXPQDU LFHZLWKFU\VWDOVXSWRKDOIDPHWUHORQJ,Q G\QDPLFFRQGLWLRQVVXFKDVLQWKHRSHQVHD WKHLFHJURZVYLDDSDQFDNHLFHF\FOHDQG WKHLFHLVPRVWO\JUDQXODUDQGWUDQVLWLRQDO 2PVWHGW/DQJHHWDO:HHNVHW DO*UDQVNRJHWDOE,QDGGLWLRQ WRQRUPDOGRZQZDUGVJURZWKWKHJUDQXODU OD\HURQWKHWRSRIWHQLQFUHDVHVLQWKLFNQHVV GXULQJWKHLFHFRYHUHGSHULRGLQWKH%DOWLF 6HDGXHWRWKHIRUPDWLRQRIVXSHULPSRVHG LFHDQGVQRZLFHLHPHWHRULFLFH,QWKH

¿UVWFDVHWKHÀXFWXDWLQJDLUWHPSHUDWXUHV UHVXOWLQPHOWLQJIUHH]LQJHYHQWVLQWKH%DOWLF 6HDZKHQWKHPHOWHGVQRZLVLQFRUSRUDWHG LQVHDLFHDVVXSHULPSRVHGLFH*UDQVNRJHW DOF3LUD]]LQLHWDO8XVLNLYLHW DO,QWKHODWWHUFDVHWKHIUHHERDUGLV QHJDWLYHGXHIRULQVWDQFHWRDKHDY\VQRZ ORDGDQGWKHXQGHUO\LQJVHDZDWHUÀRRGV RQWRSRIWKHLFHYLDFUDFNVRUE\¿OWUDWLRQ WKURXJKWKHLFHDQGLVVXEVHTXHQWO\IUR]HQ

(9)

WRJHWKHUZLWKVQRZIRUPLQJVQRZLFH6HLQl 3HOWROD /HSSlUDQWD 0\UEHUJ

%DOWLF6HDLFHELRWD

7KHVHDLFHKDELWDWLHWKHEULQHLQFOXVLRQVLV FROGGRZQWRPLQXV±ƒ&VDOLQHXSWR FRQFHQWUDWHGLQHOHPHQWVDQGDVSDWLDOO\

FORVHGHQYLURQPHQW'XHWRWKHEUDFNLVK SDUHQWZDWHUWKHEULQHVDOLQLW\YDULHVIURP WRLQ%DOWLF6HDLFH,NlYDONR 7KRPVHQ 0RFNHWDO.DDUWRNDOOLR DQGWKHEULQHFKDQQHOVDUHVPDOOHU ȝPWKDQLQSRODULFHZKLFKLQWXUQVHWVDQ XSSHUOLPLWIRUWKHVL]HRIVHDLFHRUJDQLVPV 7KXV WKH IRRG ZHE LV PLFURELDO DQG FRQVLVWVRIEDFWHULDDOJDHDQGKHWHURWURSKLF ÀDJHOODWHVLQQDQRDQGPLFURVL]HFODVVHV

±—PDQG±—PUHVSHFWLYHO\

FLOLDWHVURWLIHUVDQGFRSHSRGQDXSOLLVWDJHV WKHODVWWZRUHSUHVHQWLQJWKHWRSSUHGDWRUV 0HLQHUVHWDO.DDUWRNDOOLR .DDUWRNDOOLRHWDO$WWKHEDVHRIWKH PLFURELDOIRRGZHEDUHWKHEDFWHULDZKLFK KDYHDNH\UROHLQUHWXUQLQJWKHHQHUJ\DQG PDWHULDOLQWKHUHOHDVHG'20EDFNWRWKH IRRGZHE,QDGGLWLRQWRWKHW\SLFDOVL]H EDVHGWURSKLFLQWHUDFWLRQVLQDPLFURELDO IRRGZHEHJ$]DPHWDOWKHIRRG ZHELQVHDLFHKDVVKRUWFXWVPHDQLQJWKDW EDFWHULDDUHJUD]HGE\FLOLDWHV'20LVWDNHQ XS GLUHFWO\ E\ KHWHURWURSKLF ÀDJHOODWHV ÀDJHOODWHVDUHJUD]HGE\URWLIHUVDQGFLOLDWHV DQGKHWHURWURSKLFÀDJHOODWHVDOVRJUD]HRQ DOJDHHJ'HOLOOHHWDO.DDUWRNDOOLR )XUWKHUFRPSOH[LW\LQWKHIRRGZHE LVHOLFLWHGE\PL[RWURSKLFSURWLVWVZKLFK REWDLQQXWULWLRQE\FRPELQLQJDXWRWURSKLF DQGKHWHURWURSKLFPHFKDQLVPV([DPSOHVRI PL[RWURSKVLQFOXGHWKHFKORURSODVWEHDULQJ REOLJDWHSKRWRWURSKLFFLOLDWH0HVRGLQLXP UXEUXPKHWHURWURSKLFGLQRÀDJHOODWHVZLWK

NOHSWRFKORURSODVWVDQGSKDJRWURSKLFDOJDH .DDUWRNDOOLR*DVWHWDO0RRUWKL HWDO9LUXVHVKDYHQRW\HWEHHQVWXGLHG LQ%DOWLF6HDLFHEXWWKHLUHIIHFWRQEDFWHULD DVZHOODVRQHXNDU\RWHVFDQQRWEHH[FOXGHG 'HPLQJ

7KH%DOWLFVHDLFHEDFWHULDOFRPPXQLWLHV VKRZ D FORVH DVVRFLDWLRQ ZLWK WKH SRODU SK\ORW\SHVDQGWKHPDMRULW\RIVHTXHQFHV EHORQJWRĮȕDQGȖSURWHREDFWHULDDQGWR WKH&\WRSKDJD)ODYREDFWHULD%DFWHURLGHWHV JURXS .DDUWRNDOOLR HW DO 6LPLODUO\ WR SRODU VHD LFH GLDWRPV DUH JHQHUDOO\WKHGRPLQDQWDOJDOJURXSLQWKH

%DOWLF6HDLFHZLWKUHSUHVHQWDWLYHVIURPERWK FHQWULFHJ&KDHWRFHURVZLJKDPLL0HORVLUD DUFWLFDDQG7KDVVLRVLUDEDOWLFDDQGSHQQDWH VSHFLHVHJ$FKQDQWKHVWDHQLDWD1DYLFXOD YDQKRHIIHQLLDQG1LW]VFKLDIULJLGD+DHFN\

HW DO +DHFN\ $QGHUVVRQ .DDUWRNDOOLRHWDO'LQRÀDJHOODWHVDUH DOVRDEXQGDQWLQLFHDQGW\SLFDOO\GRPLQDWHG E\6FULSSVLHOODKDQJRHL/DUVHQHWDO 0HLQHUVHWDO.XRVD .DDUWRNDOOLR EXW WKH SUHVHQFH RI3HULGLQLHOOD FDWHQDWDKDVDOVREHHQUHSRUWHG1RUUPDQ

$QGHUVVRQ+DHFN\ $QGHUVVRQ .DDUWRNDOOLRHWDO6PDOODXWRDQG KHWHURWURSKLFÀDJHOODWHV—PFDQIRUP DVXEVWDQWLDOSDUWRIWKHELRPDVV,NlYDONR 7KRPVHQ 0HLQHUV HW DO .DDUWRNDOOLREXWOLJKWPLFURVFRS\

LVJHQHUDOO\WRRLPSUHFLVHWRLGHQWLI\WKHP

&KORURSK\WHV HJ&KODP\GRPRQDV VS 'LFW\RVSKHUXP VS DQG0RQRUDSKLGLXP FRQWRUWXPFU\SWRSK\WHVDQGF\DQREDFWHULD DOVRFRQWULEXWHWRWKHLFHDOJDOELRPDVVLQ WKH%DOWLF6HDEXWPXFKOHVVWKDQGLDWRPV DQG GLQRÀDJHOODWHV +XWWXQHQ 1LHPL ,NlYDONR 7KRPVHQ0HLQHUV HWDO0RVWRIWKHFLOLDWHVEHORQJ WRWKHJHQHUD%XUVDULD6WURPELGLXPDQG /DFU\PDULD.DDUWRNDOOLR.DDUWRNDOOLR HWDO7KHURWLIHUELRPDVVLQLFHPRVWO\

(10)

FRQVLVWVRI6\QFKDHWDFIOLWWRUDOLVEDOWLFD 1RUUPDQ $QGHUVVRQ0HLQHUVHWDO .DDUWRNDOOLR&RSHSRGQDXSOLL VWDJHVDUHJHQHUDOO\XQLGHQWL¿HGEXWLQWKH VWXG\RI:HUQHU $XHOWKH\ZHUH LGHQWL¿HGDV$FDUWLDEL¿ORVDQDXSOLL

7KH W\SLFDO VXFFHVVLRQ RI WKH LFH FRPPXQLWLHVLQ%DOWLF6HDIROORZVWKHDQQXDO F\FOHRIVRODUUDGLDWLRQDQGDGYDQFHVIURP DORZSURGXFWLYHPLGZLQWHUVWDJHWRLFH DOJDOEORRPVLQ0DUFK$SULOIROORZHGE\D SRVWEORRPKHWHURWURSKLFSKDVH1RUUPDQ

$QGHUVVRQ+DHFN\HWDO+DHFN\

$QGHUVVRQ .DDUWRNDOOLR .XRVD .DDUWRNDOOLR )ROORZLQJ LFHIRUPDWLRQWKHLQLWLDOFRPPXQLW\ZKLFK KDVEHHQHQWUDSSHGLQLFHHLWKHUSDVVLYHO\

E\ HQFORVXUH RU DFWLYHO\ E\ VFDYHQJLQJ

$FNOH\ 6XOOLYDQVWDUWVWRFKDQJH DVQRWDOOWKHHQWUDSSHGRUJDQLVPVDUHDEOHWR WROHUDWHWKHQHZKDELWDW7KXVDQLQFUHDVLQJ GLYHUJHQFHIURPWKHSDUHQWZDWHUFRPPXQLW\

LVREVHUYHGRYHUWLPH0HLQHUVHWDO .DDUWRNDOOLRHWDO7KLVDOVRLQGLFDWHV WKDWPRVWRIWKHLFHRUJDQLVPVDUHDFWLYHO\

JURZLQJDOWKRXJKLWKDVDOVREHHQSURSRVHG WKDWLFHPLJKWDFWDVDQRYHUZLQWHULQJKDELWDW IRUPHWD]RDQV:HUQHU $XHO'XULQJ LFHPHOWDOOWKHPDWHULDOLQVLGHWKHLFHLV UHOHDVHGWRWKHXQGHUO\LQJZDWHU7KHUHOHDVHG QXWULHQWVPD\IXHODVSULQJEORRPDQGWKH LFHGLDWRPVPD\VHHGWKHSK\WRSODQNWRQ FRPPXQLW\XQOHVVQRWVHWWOHGRQWKHERWWRP +DHFN\HWDO

7KH TXDQWLW\ DQG FRPSRVLWLRQ RI LFH ELRPDVVFKDQJHDORQJWKHVRXWKQRUWKD[LV 0HLQHUVHWDO,QWKH*XOIRI)LQODQG

*R)WKHFKORURSK\OODFKODYDOXHVDUH DWPD[LPXPPJPZLWKGLDWRPVDV WKHGRPLQDQWJURXSZKHUHDVLQWKH*XOIRI

%RWKQLD*R%WKHPD[LPXPFKODYDOXH LVPJPDQGWKHELRPDVVLVPDLQO\

FRPSRVHGRIÀDJHOODWHV*UDQVNRJHWDO D DQG UHIHUHQFHV WKHUHLQ %DFWHULDO

SURGXFWLRQ%3VKRZVJUHDWYDULDELOLW\DQG ZDVRQO\VOLJKWO\KLJKHULQWKH*R)±

—J&OKWKDQLQWKH*R%±—J&O KZLWKWKHEDFWHULDOELRPDVVVKRZLQJWKH VDPHWUHQG*R)±—J&O*R%

±—J&O.DDUWRNDOOLR

89$

6RODU UDGLDWLRQ FRPSULVHV WKH SDUW RI HOHFWURPDJQHWLFUDGLDWLRQHPLWWHGE\WKHVXQ WKDWUHDFKHVWKH(DUWK¶VVXUIDFH,WFDQEH GLYLGHGLQWRXOWUDYLROHWUDGLDWLRQ895±

QPSKRWRV\QWKHWLFDOO\DFWLYHUDGLDWLRQ 3$5±QPDQGLQIUDUHGUDGLDWLRQ ,5±QP895LVIXUWKHUGLYLGHG WR89%±QPDQGWR89$±

QPDQGDVWKHHQHUJ\FRQWHQWSHUSKRWRQ GHFUHDVHVZLWKLQFUHDVLQJZDYHOHQJWK89%

LVELRORJLFDOO\PRUHKDUPIXOWKDQ89$

+RZHYHU WKH ZLGHU ZDYHOHQJWK VSDQ RI 89$PD\FDXVHPRUHGDPDJHWRRUJDQLVPV HVSHFLDOO\LQDTXDWLFHQYLURQPHQWVZKHUH 89%DWWHQXDWHVFRQVLGHUDEO\IDVWHUWKDQ 89$WKHDWWHQXDWLRQFRHI¿FLHQWGHSHQGLQJ RQWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQDQGRSWLFDOTXDOLWLHVRI GLVVROYHGDQGSDUWLFXODWHOLYLQJDQGQRQ OLYLQJ PDWWHU ,Q WKH GLVVROYHG IUDFWLRQ FKURPRSKRULF GLVVROYHG RUJDQLF PDWWHU

&'20ZKLFKPRVWO\FRQVLVWVRIKXPLF VXEVWDQFHVLVPDLQO\UHVSRQVLEOHIRUWKH DEVRUSWLRQRIVRODU89DQGEOXHUDGLDWLRQDQG WKHDWWHQXDWLRQLVHQKDQFHGE\WKHDEVRUSWLRQ E\SK\WRSODQNWRQHVSHFLDOO\LQHXWURSKLF ZDWHUV:HW]HODQGUHIHUHQFHVWKHUHLQ

89$GDPDJHDQGUHSDLU PHFKDQLVPV

,QXQLFHOOXODURUJDQLVPVWKHUDGLDWLRQUDSLGO\

UHDFKHVYLWDOFRPSRQHQWVVXFKDV'1$DQG WKH\DUHWKHUHIRUHWKHPRVWVHQVLWLYHWR895

(11)

*DUFLD3LFKHO.DUHQW]HWDO -HIIUH\HWDO$OWKRXJKWKHDEVRUSWLRQ SHDNRI'1$QPLVZHOOEHORZWKH 89$UDQJH'1$FDQEHGDPDJHGLQGLUHFWO\

YLDQRQ'1$FKURPRSKRUHVHJULERÀDYLQ SRUSK\ULQV1$'+1$'3+ZKLFKDEVRUE WKH89$DQGSDVVWKHH[FLWDWLRQHQHUJ\RQ WR'1$RUPROHFXODUR[\JHQ7KLVOHDGVWR WKHIRUPDWLRQRIUHDFWLYHR[\JHQVSHFLHV 526ZKLFKLQWXUQWUDQVIHUWKHHQHUJ\WR RUJDQLFPROHFXOHVVXFKDV'1$UHVXOWLQJ '1$EUHDNVDQGWKHIRUPDWLRQRIS\ULPLGLQH GLPHUVDQGDGGXFWV3HDN 3HDN ,QDGGLWLRQ89$LVDOVRNQRZQWRGDPDJH FHOOPHPEUDQHVFHOOXODUSURWHLQVDQG51$

7KXVWKHHIIHFWVRI89$YDU\IURPOHWKDOWR VXEOHWKDOGHSHQGLQJRQWKH89$ÀXHQFHUDWH DQGWRWDOGRVHDVZHOODVRQWKHSUHVHQFHRI R[\JHQ-DJJHU3L]DUUR 2UFH

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

LHSKRWREOHDFKLQJ*HUEHU +lGHU 0DVNH /DWDVD

2UJDQLVPV KDYH GHYHORSHG GLIIHUHQW PHDQVWRFRSHZLWKVRODU895VHH%DQDV]DN DQGUHIHUHQFHVWKHUHLQZKLFKXVXDOO\

FRPHZLWKHQHUJHWLFFRVWVUHVXOWLQJLQIRU LQVWDQFH GHFUHDVHG JURZWK DQG VXUYLYDO UDWHV9LQFHQW 1HDOH)LUVWLQOLQH DUHWKHSK\VLFDOEDUULHUVZKLFKLQFOXGHFHOO VL]HVKDSHVWUXFWXUHVLQWKHRXWHUFRYHULQJ RIDFHOODQGPLJUDWLRQSDWWHUQV,QVLGHWKH FHOO89DEVRUELQJFRPSRXQGVSLJPHQWV DQG GLIIHUHQW TXHQFKLQJ PHFKDQLVPV EHFRPH LPSRUWDQW 0DQ\ RUJDQLVPV DUH DEOHWRSURGXFHP\FRVSRULQHOLNHDPLQR DFLGV0$$VZKLFKDUHF\FORKH[HQRQH RU F\FORKH[HQLPLQH ULQJV ZLWK YDU\LQJ DPLQRDFLGVLGHJURXSVDEVRUELQJPRVWO\

LQWKH89UDQJHEHWZHHQDQGQP 5R\DQGUHIHUHQFHVWKHUHLQ2WKHU DEVRUSWLYHFRPSRXQGVLQFOXGHVF\WRQHPLQ LQWKHH[WUDFHOOXODUVKHHWRIF\DQREDFWHULD DQGPHODQLQLQWKHVNLQRIDTXDWLFYHUWHEUDWHV DQGLQWKHFXWLFOHRIFODGRFHUDQV4XHQFKLQJ LHWKHQHXWUDOL]DWLRQRIWR[LFSKRWRSURGXFWV OLNH526LVPHGLDWHGE\DQWLR[LGDQWVVXFKDV VXSHUR[LGHGLVPXWDVHDVFRUEDWHSHUR[LGDVH DQGFDURWHQRLGSLJPHQWV

2UJDQLVPV DOVR SRVVHVV D YDULHW\ RI UHSDLUPHFKDQLVPVWRFRXQWHUDFWWKH895 LQGXFHGSKRWRGDPDJH7KLVLVHVSHFLDOO\

YLWDO IRU KHWHURWURSKLF EDFWHULD ZKLFK JHQHUDOO\ODFN895DEVRUELQJSURWHFWLYH SLJPHQWVDQGFRPSRXQGV.DUHQW]HWDO 3URWHLQGDPDJHLVPDLQO\RYHUFRPH E\GHQRYRV\QWKHVLVZKHUHDV'1$GDPDJH QHHGVWREHUHSDLUHG7KHPRVWFRPPRQ GDPDJH LQ '1$ ± LV GLPHUV EHWZHHQ WZR DGMDFHQW S\ULPLGLQH EDVHV UHVXOWLQJLQDEORFNLQWKH'1$UHSOLFDWLRQ SURFHVVHJ%DQDV]DN7KHGLPHUV FDQEHUHPRYHGYLDWZRUHSDLUSDWKZD\V SKRWRUHDFWLYDWLRQ DQG H[FLVLRQ UHSDLU 3KRWRUHDFWLYDWLRQRQO\LQYROYHVWKHHQ]\PH

(12)

SKRWRO\DVHZKLFKUHFRJQL]HVWKHVWUXFWXUDO GLVWRUWLRQLQ'1$DQGE\DEVRUELQJ89$

DQGVKRUWZDYHOHQJWK3$5PRQRPHUL]HV LW([FLVLRQUHSDLURQWKHFRQWUDU\GRHV QRWQHHGOLJKWDQGLQFOXGHVPDQ\HQ]\PHV ZKLFKUHFRJQL]HWKHVWUXFWXUDOGLVWRUWLRQ UHPRYH LW DQG UHV\QWKHVL]H D VHJPHQW RI'1$WRFRPSOHWHWKH'1$VWUDQG,Q DGGLWLRQWRUHSDLUSDWKZD\VRUJDQLVPVKDYH GLPHUE\SDVVDQGUHFRPELQDWLRQDOUHSDLU DVWROHUDQFHSDWKZD\VZKLFKGRQRWUHSDLU WKHGDPDJHEXWKHOSRUJDQLVPWRWROHUDWHLW

%DQDV]DN

7KHHIIHFWVRI895RQDTXDWLFRUJDQLVPV VKRZ GHSHQGHQFH RQ WKH ODWLWXGH ,Q D VWXG\E\+HOEOLQJHWDO$QWDUFWLF SK\WRSODQNWRQ ZHUH VLJQL¿FDQWO\ PRUH DIIHFWHGE\895WKDQWURSLFDOSK\WRSODQNWRQ DQGPRUHWKDQRIWKHSKRWRLQKLELWLRQ FDXVHG E\ 895 ZDV GXH WR 89$ 7KH JUHDWHUSKRWRLQKLELWRU\HIIHFWRI89$RQ SK\WRSODQNWRQ FRPPXQLWLHV FRPSDUHG WR 89% LV VXSSRUWHG E\ VHYHUDO VWXGLHV UHYLHZHGE\0RFNDQG7KRPDV89$

DOVRSOD\HGDODUJHUUROHLQUHGXFLQJEDFWHULDO YLDELOLW\LQ$QWDUFWLFZDWHUV+HOEOLQJHWDO DQGEDFWHULDOSURGXFWLRQLQWKHVXUIDFH ZDWHUOD\HURIWKHQRUWKHUQ$GULDWLF6HDDQG DQDOSLQHODNH6RPPDUXJDHWDO

6RODUUDGLDWLRQDQGVHDLFH

7KHLQFLGHQWUDGLDWLRQ¿HOGFRQVLVWVRID GLUHFWEHDPFRPSRQHQWIURPWKHVXQDQGRI DGLIIXVHFRPSRQHQWIURPWKHVN\DQGFORXGV 3DUWRIWKHLQFRPLQJUDGLDWLRQLVUHÀHFWHG IURP WKH VXUIDFH HLWKHU DV VSHFXODU WKH DQJOHRILQFLGHQFHLVWKHVDPHDVUHÀHFWHG RUGLIIXVHUHÀHFWLRQOLJKWLVGLVWULEXWHGLQDOO GLUHFWLRQVLQGHSHQGHQWO\RIWKHDQJOHDQG WKHVL]HRIWKHUHÀHFWHGIUDFWLRQLHDOEHGR LVGHSHQGHQWRQPDQ\IDFWRUVVXFKDVWKH ZDYHOHQJWKVRODU]HQLWKDQJOHWKHVXUIDFH

FKDUDFWHULVWLFVDQGWKHUHODWLYHSURSRUWLRQV RIGLUHFWDQGGLIIXVHLUUDGLDQFH3HURYLFK 7KHLFHDOEHGRKDVODUJHVSDWLDODQG WHPSRUDOYDULDELOLW\7KHWRWDODOEHGR±

QPRIVQRZFRYHUHGVHDLFHLVKLJKHU WKDQWKDWRIEDUHPHOWLQJLFHRU LFHZLWKPHOWSRQGV3HURYLFKHWDO +RZHYHUDVWKHORQJHUZDYHOHQJWKV KDYHORZHUDOEHGRVLWLVPRUHLQIRUPDWLYH WRVHSDUDWHWKHWRWDODOEHGRLQWRGLIIHUHQW ZDYHOHQJWKUHJLRQV,QWKHVWXG\RI3HURYLFK HWDOWKHDOEHGRIRU895ZDYHOHQJWKV RI±QPDQG3$5±QPZDV TXLWHXQLIRUPDQGGHFUHDVHGIURPLQWKH FROGVQRZFRYHUHGLFHWRMXVWEHORZLQWKH PHOWLQJLFHDQGIXUWKHUWRDSSUR[ZKHQ WKHPHOWLQJLFHKDGVXUIDFHSRQGV

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¿FDQWDERYHQP

6FDWWHULQJLVFDXVHGE\WKHGLIIHUHQFH LQ WKH LQGLFHV RI UHIUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ DQ LQFOXVLRQDQGWKHVXUURXQGLQJLFHDQGWKH

(13)

GLVWULEXWLRQRIWKHEULQHDQGDLUEXEEOHVLQ PDQ\VPDOOLQFOXVLRQVWKHUHIRUHHQKDQFHV VFDWWHULQJFRPSDUHGWRWKHSUHVHQFHRIIHZHU ODUJHULQFOXVLRQV7KHGLUHFWLRQRIVFDWWHULQJ LVXVXDOO\PRUHIRUZDUGWKDQVLGHZD\VRU EDFNZDUGVDQGRQFHWKHLFHLVWKLFNHQRXJK WKHEDFNVFDWWHULQJGRHVQRORQJHUDIIHFWVWKH DOEHGR3HURYLFK

7KH SRUWLRQ WKDW LV QRW UHÀHFWHG RU DEVRUEHGLVWUDQVPLWWHGWKURXJKWKHLFHDQG WKHSK\VLFDOSURSHUWLHVRIWKHLFHDQGWKH ZDYHOHQJWKRIWKHOLJKWGHWHUPLQHWKHUHODWLYH VFDOHRIWKHVHSURFHVVHV$VWKHLQFOXVLRQV XQGHUJRERWKKRUL]RQWDODQGYHUWLFDOWHPSRUDO DQGVSDWLDOYDULDWLRQVWKHRSWLFDOSURSHUWLHV RILFHDOVRH[KLELWODUJHYDULDWLRQ7KHFROG VQRZFRYHUHGLFHDQGEDUHPHOWLQJLFHLQ

$UFWLFZHUHIRXQGWRKDYHDQDSSUR[LPDWHO\

HTXDOWUDQVPLWWDQFHRIDWQP DQG±DW±QPZKHUHDVIRU SRQGHGLFHRIHTXDOWKLFNQHVVWKHUHVSHFWLYH YDOXHVZHUHDQGWKHGLIIHUHQFH EHLQJVWURQJO\OLQNHGWRWKHGLIIHUHQWERWWRP LFHDOJDOELRPDVVHV3HURYLFKHWDO

7KHWUDQVPLWWDQFHRI895YDULHVJUHDWO\

GHSHQGLQJRQWKHDERYHGHVFULEHGIDFWRUV 6LPLODUO\WRRWKHUDTXDWLFHQYLURQPHQWV 89%LVDWWHQXDWHGPRUHWKDQHLWKHU89$

RUYLVLEOHUDGLDWLRQ,QWKH:HGGHOO6HDWKH PHDQWUDQVPLWWDQFHVIRU89$DQG89%LQ LFHZLWKDQDYHUDJHWKLFNQHVVRIFPDQG DSSUR[FPVQRZFRYHUZHUHDQG UHVSHFWLYHO\3HURYLFK7KH895 WUDQVPLWWDQFHVKRZHGKLJKHUVHQVLWLYLW\WR VQRZGHSWKWKDQWKHWUDQVPLWWDQFHRI3$5 3HURYLFK7KXVHYHQDWKLQ VQRZFRYHUFDQJUHDWO\UHGXFHWKHDPRXQW RI ELRORJLFDOO\ KDUPIXO UDGLDWLRQ LQ DQG XQGHUWKHLFHZKLOHWKHOHYHORI3$5LVOHVV DIIHFWHG$VLFHLVJHQHUDOO\FRPSRVHGRI GLIIHUHQWLFHW\SHVHJFROXPQDUJUDQXODU WKH H[WLQFWLRQ FRHI¿FLHQWV LQ GLIIHUHQW OD\HUVYDU\DFFRUGLQJO\HJ*UHQIHOO 0D\NXW 7KH FKDQJHV LQ SK\VLFDO

DQGELRORJLFDOFKDUDFWHULVWLFVUHVXOWLQWKH GHSHQGHQFHRIWUDQVPLWWDQFHRQWKHDJHRI WKHLFH)RUH[DPSOHFPWKLFN\RXQJVHD LFHWUDQVPLWVURXJKO\RI895ZKLOH FROG¿UVW\HDULFHRI•PFRQWDLQLQJD JUHDWHUERWWRPELRPDVVWUDQVPLWVOHVVWKDQ 3HURYLFK

2SWLFDOSURSHUWLHVRI%DOWLF6HDLFH

&RPSDUHGWRSRODUVHDLFHWKHLFHFRYHULQ WKH%DOWLF6HDLVWKLQ7KHVQRZFRYHULV DOVRUHODWLYHO\WKLQVKRZLQJKLJKVSDWLDO DQG WHPSRUDO YDULDWLRQV LQ LWV SUHVHQFH WKLFNQHVVDQGGHQVLW\7KHW\SLFDOO\ODUJH VQRZLFHIUDFWLRQLQWKHVXUIDFHLFHLQFUHDVHV DOEHGRE\VFDWWHULQJDQGWKHWUDQVPLWWDQFH RILFHLVUHGXFHGGXHWRDWPRVSKHULFIDOORXW DQGKLJKFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRISDUWLFXODWHDQG GLVVROYHGRUJDQLFPDWHULDOGHULYHGIURPODQG DQGDXWRFKWKRQRXVSURGXFWLRQ/HSSlUDQWD HWDO(KQHWDO8XVLNLYLHWDO

$VDFRQVHTXHQFHRIWKHUHODWLYHO\

WKLQLFHEDFNVFDWWHULQJIURPWKHLFHDQG WKURXJKWKHLFHVXUIDFHPD\RFFDVLRQDOO\

SOD\DVXEVWDQWLDOUROH0LOGHUSHULRGVZLWK VXUIDFHLFHPHOWLQJDUHIUHTXHQWGXULQJWKH ZLQWHUVLQWKH%DOWLF6HDDQGWKHUHVXOWLQJ ZHWLFHVXUIDFHVVWURQJO\UHGXFHWKHDOEHGR 5DVPXVHWDO

7KHRSWLFDOSURSHUWLHVRI%DOWLF6HDLFH KDYHEHHQH[DPLQHGLQRQO\DIHZVWXGLHV DQGPRVWRIWKHPKDYHEHHQFRQGXFWHGLQ 6DQWDOD%D\*XOIRI)LQODQG&RQVLVWHQWO\

ZLWK REVHUYDWLRQV IURP WKH $UFWLF HJ 3HURYLFKHWDOWKHPDMRULW\RIWKH WUDQVPLWWHGOLJKWLQ%DOWLF6HDLFHLVLQWKH 3$5EDQG/HSSlUDQWDHWDO(KQHWDO ,Q0DUFKWKHWUDQVPLWWDQFHRI 3$5YDULHGIURPWRLQFUHDVLQJWR

±GXULQJWKHPHOWSKDVHDQGDSDUDOOHO WUHQGZDVDOVRREVHUYHGLQ89$(KQHWDO 7KHLFHVXUIDFHFRQGLWLRQVDIIHFWHG

(14)

WKHWUDQVPLWWDQFHHVSHFLDOO\RI89$DQG WKHVSHFWUDOWUDQVPLWWDQFHRI89$LQ FPWKLFNVQRZIUHHLFHZLWKDZHWVXUIDFH ZDVPDUNHGO\KLJKHUIURPDWQP WRDWQPWKDQLQWKHHTXDOO\WKLFN LFHZLWKDIUR]HQVXUIDFHIURPWR UHVSHFWLYHO\,QHDUO\$SULOWKHVSHFWUDO WUDQVPLWWDQFHRI89$IRUFPWKLFNLFH ZLWKDFPVQRZFRYHUZDVEHWZHHQDQG ZKLOHWKHWUDQVPLWWDQFHRI3$5ZDV RQO\5DVPXVHWDO

7KHVKDSHRIWKHVSHFWUDODOEHGRFXUYH LQWKHVWXG\RI(KQHWDOZDVVLPLODU WR WKH FXUYH REWDLQHG LQ WKH$UFWLF EXW WKHWKLQQHULFHKLJKHUDWPRVSKHULFIDOORXW DQG &'20 FRQFHQWUDWLRQ LQ %DOWLF 6HD UHVXOWHGLQDORZHUDOEHGR7KHPD[LPXP WUDQVPLWWDQFHRIEOXHZKLWHLFHLVDW QPEXWWKHDEVRUELQJLQFOXVLRQVVKLIWLWWR

±QP3HURYLFKHWDODQGLQ WKH%DOWLF6HDWKLVVKLIWLVIXUWKHUWR±

QP(KQHWDO8XVLNLYLHWDO 7KHPRGHOOHGUHVXOWVRI8XVLNLYLHWDO LQGLFDWHWKDWWKHWUDQVPLVVLRQRI895LV PDLQO\DIIHFWHGE\&'20ZKHUHDVWKH WUDQVPLVVLRQRI3$5LVLQÀXHQFHGPRUHE\

SDUWLFXODWHPDWWHU

89$DQGVHDLFHRUJDQLVPV

7KHHIIHFWVRI895RQVHDLFHRUJDQLVPV KDYHEHHQVWXGLHGIDUOHVVWKDQRQSODQNWRQ DQGWKHIRFXVKDVEHHQPDLQO\RQ89%HJ 5\DQ %HDJOHKROH6FKR¿HOGHWDO 0F0LQQHWDOEXWWKHHIIHFWVRI 89$KDYHQRWEHHQLQYHVWLJDWHGXSWRGDWH 89$GDPDJHWRRUJDQLVPVLQVHDLFHPD\

EHPRUHVXEVWDQWLDOWKDQLQVXUIDFHZDWHUV IRUPDQ\UHDVRQV

L 'DUNDFFOLPDWHGRUJDQLVPVDUHJHQHUDOO\

KLJKO\VHQVLWLYHWR3$5EXWDOVRWR895 HJ9LOODIDxHHWDODVWKH

SKRWRLQGXFWLRQRIVFUHHQLQJFRPSRXQGV DQGDFWLYLW\RISKRWRUHSDLUHQ]\PHVDUH GLUHFWO\GHSHQGHQWRQOLJKWLQWHQVLWLHV 9HUQHW7KXVWKHOLJKWKLVWRU\

SOD\VDQLPSRUWDQWUROHLQGHWHUPLQJWKH UHVSRQVHVWR89$DQGSUHDFFOLPDWLRQ XQGHU3$5HQKDQFHVWKHUHFRYHU\IURP WKH895H[SRVXUH.LP :DWDQDEH 9HUQHW DQG UHIHUHQFHV WKHUHLQ

LL 7KH YHUWLFDO PRYHPHQW RI V\PSDJLF RUJDQLVPVLVYHU\OLPLWHGDQGXQOLNH SODQNWRQWKH\DUHQRWDEOHWRHVFDSHWKH 895WRGHHSHUOD\HUV7KXVV\PSDJLF RUJDQLVPVFDQEHDVVXPHGWREHPRUH FXPXODWLYHO\H[SRVHGWRVRODUUDGLDWLRQ WKDQSODQNWRQ7KLVHVSHFLDOO\FRQFHUQV KHWHURWURSKLF EDFWHULD ZKLFK XQOLNH SK\WRSODQNWRQGRQRWXVXDOO\SRVVHVVDQ\

89SURWHFWLYHFRPSRXQGVRUSLJPHQWV LLL7KH DFWLYHO\ JURZLQJ FHOOV DUH RIWHQ

PRUHVHQVLWLYHWRLQDFWLYDWLRQWKDQWKH FHOOVLQWKHVWDWLRQDU\SKDVHGXHWRWKH VKRUWHUWLPHIRUH[FLVLRQUHSDLUEHWZHHQ VXEVHTXHQWURXQGVRIUHSOLFDWLRQ+DUP -DJJHU-XQJHHWDO DQG0DUWLQHWDOUHSRUWHGWKDW

±RISRODUVHDLFHEDFWHULDZHUH DFWLYHVWDLQHGZLWKF\DQRGLWR\O WHWUD]ROLXP FKORULGH &7& ZKLFK LV PDUNHGO\ KLJKHU WKDQ WKH ± UHSRUWHGIRUEDFWHULRSODQNWRQ.DUQHU )XKUPDQ6KHUUHWDO LY7KHH[WUDFHOOXODUIRUPDWLRQRI526LQLFH

LVIDYRXUHGLQK\SHUR[LF!±—PRO 2NJFRQGLWLRQVOLNHWKRVHFRPPRQO\

REVHUYHG LQ EULQH FDXVLQJ R[LGDWLYH GDPDJHWRWKHFHOOVLQLFH7KRPDVHW DODQGUHIHUHQFHVWKHUHLQ

(15)

Y 7KHUHFRYHU\UDWHLQDFROGHQYLURQPHQW OLNH VHD LFH PLJKW EH ORZHU WKDQ DW KLJKHUWHPSHUDWXUHVDVUHFRYHU\LVRIWHQ GULYHQE\HQ]\PDWLFUHDFWLRQVZKLFKDUH GLUHFWO\UHODWHGWRWHPSHUDWXUH9HUQHW DQGUHIHUHQFHVWKHUHLQ

287/,1(2)7+(7+(6,6

7KLVWKHVLVLVGLYLGHGLQWRWZRPDLQWKHPHV WKHVHDLFHFRPPXQLWLHVLQWKH%RWKQLDQ

%D\,,,DQGWKHHIIHFWRI89$RQ%DOWLF VHDLFH FRPPXQLWLHV ,,, ,9 7KH ¿UVW WZRSDSHUVDUHH[SORUDWLYHLQQDWXUHDQG E\FRYHULQJV\PSDJLFFRPPXQLWLHVIURP GLIIHUHQWNLQGVRIGULIWLFH,WRIDVWLFH,, LQWKH%RWKQLDQ%D\DQDWWHPSWLVPDGHWR OLQNWKHELRWLFWRDELRWLFSK\VLFRFKHPLFDO YDULDEOHVHJQXWULHQWVDQGLFHVWUXFWXUH 7KHODVWWZRSDSHUV,,,,9DUHEDVHGRQDQ LQVLWXH[SHULPHQWDOVHWXSDLPLQJWRDVVHVV WKHVHQVLWLYLW\RI%DOWLF6HDLFHDOJDHDQG EDFWHULDWRVRODU89$UDGLDWLRQZKHQH[SRVHG WRORZYHUVXVLQFUHDVLQJVRODULUUDGLDQFH

7KH%RWKQLDQ%D\VHDLFHKDVEHHQDIRFXV RIPDQ\SK\VLFRFKHPLFDOLQYHVWLJDWLRQV 3DORVXR:HHNVHWDO5DKPHWDO

*UDQVNRJHWDOEED E *UDQVNRJ .DDUWRNDOOLR +RZHYHURQO\DIHZHFRORJLFDOVWXGLHVIURP GULIWLFH,NlYDONR 7KRPVHQ,NlYDONR 0HLQHUVHWDODQGQRQHRQIDVW LFHKDYHEHHQUHSRUWHGIURPWKH%RWKQLDQ

%D\ )RU D PRUH FRPSUHKHQVLYH YLHZ PXOWLSOHORFDWLRQVRQGULIWLFHZHUHVDPSOHG LQ,WRLQFOXGHLFHRIGLIIHUHQWRULJLQV DQGIDVWLFHVXFFHVVLRQZDVPRQLWRUHGDW WKUHHVWDWLRQVZLWKYDU\LQJGHJUHHVRIULYHU LQÀXHQFHIURP)HEUXDU\WR$SULO,, 7KHVH VWXGLHV DGG WR NQRZOHGJH RI WKH HFRORJ\RI%RWKQLDQ%D\VHDLFHZKLFKKDV HDUOLHUODUJHO\EHHQQHJOHFWHG

7KH HIIHFW RI 895 RQ %DOWLF 6HD LFH FRPPXQLWLHV KDV EHHQ DQ XQGHUVWXGLHG VXEMHFWWRGDWH$FFRUGLQJWRWKHFOLPDWH FKDQJH VFHQDULRV +DDSDOD HW DO +(/&20 895 ZLOO KDYH WKH PRVW DGYHUVH HIIHFW RQ WKH ZLQWHU WLPH FRPPXQLWLHVHVSHFLDOO\LQVHDLFHDVWKH WKLQQHUVQRZDQGLFHFRYHUZLOODOORZPRUH UDGLDWLRQWRSHQHWUDWHLQWRDQGWKURXJKWKH LFHDPRQJRWKHUHIIHFWV$OWKRXJK89%LV PRUHKDUPIXOSHUSKRWRQ89$KDVEHHQ UHFRJQL]HGWREHWKHPDLQO\UHVSRQVLEOH IRUWKHSKRWRLQKLELWLRQLQWKH$QWDUFWLFDQG RWKHUDTXDWLFHQYLURQPHQWV%KOPDQQHW DO&XOOHQHWDO+HOEOLQJHWDO 6PLWKHWDO9LOODIDxHHWDO DQGUHIHUHQFHVWKHUHLQ9LOODIDxHHWDO DQGVLPLODUREVHUYDWLRQVKDYHEHHQUHSRUWHG RQEDFWHULRSODQNWRQYLDELOLW\DQGSURGXFWLRQ +HOEOLQJHWDO6RPPDUXJDHWDO )RUWKH¿UVWWLPHWKHUHVSRQVHVRILFH DOJDHDQGEDFWHULDWR89$ZHUHLQYHVWLJDWHG LQWKH%DOWLF6HD,,,,9SURYLGLQJQRYHO LQIRUPDWLRQRQWKH89$VHQVLWLYLW\RIWKH LFHFRPPXQLWLHV7KHWZRPDMRUTXHVWLRQV DQVZHUHGLQWKHVHVWXGLHVZHUH$UHWKH ZLQWHUWLPH89$LUUDGLDQFHVKLJKHQRXJKWR KDYHDQLPSDFWRQ%DOWLF6HDLFHDOJDODQG EDFWHULDOFRPPXQLWLHVDQGWKHLUSURFHVVHV DQGGRHVWKHWLPLQJDQGGXUDWLRQRI89$

H[SRVXUHPDWWHU"

(16)

678'<$5($

7KHVHPLHQFORVHG%DOWLF6HDLVVHSDUDWHG LQWRIRXUPDMRUVXEEDVLQVZLWKWKHLURZQ FKDUDFWHULVWLFVWKH%DOWLF3URSHU*XOIRI 5LJD*XOIRI)LQODQGDQG*XOIRI%RWKQLD

$OOWKHVWXGLHVSUHVHQWHGLQWKLVWKHVLVZHUH FRQGXFWHGLQWKHQRUWKHUQ%DOWLF6HD)LJ ZKHUHWKHVXUIDFHZDWHUVDOLQLW\GHFUHDVHV IURPWRZLWKLQFUHDVLQJODWLWXGH7KLVLV GXHWRWKHLQFUHDVLQJULYHUGLVFKDUJHWRZDUGV WKH%RWKQLDQ%D\DVZHOODVWKHWRSRJUDSK\

RIWKH%DOWLF6HD

%RWKQLDQ%D\

7KHQRUWKHUQPRVWSDUWRIWKH%DOWLF6HD WKH%RWKQLDQ%D\ZKLFKLVWKHIRFXVRIWKLV WKHVLV,,,LVVHSDUDWHGIURPWKH%RWKQLDQ 6HDE\WZRVLOOVDWPGHSWKLQWKH4XDUN DUHD 7KH VLOOV SUHYHQW WKH LQWUXVLRQ RI VDOLQHGHHSZDWHUZKLFKWRJHWKHUZLWKWKH VWURQJULYHUGLVFKDUJHNP\UIURP DFDWFKPHQWDUHDRINPUHGXFHV WKHVDOLQLW\RIWKH%RWKQLDQ%D\DQGPDNHV WKHYHUWLFDOVDOLQLW\JUDGLHQWZHDNYDU\LQJ IURP±LQWKHGHHSWR±LQWKH VXUIDFHOD\HUV0lONNL 7DPVDOX,Q DGGLWLRQULYHUZDWHUVDUHULFKLQQXWULHQWVDQG DQQXDOO\EULQJWRQVRI1DQG WRQVRI3WRWKHEDVLQDYHUDJHV )LQQLVK(QYLURQPHQW,QVWLWXWHEXWGXHWR WKHDEVRUSWLRQRISKRVSKDWHE\KXPLFDQG LURQFRPSRXQGVSULPDU\SURGXFWLRQLVRIWHQ 3OLPLWHGLQWKH%RWKQLDQ%D\GLVVROYHG LQRUJDQLF13!LQVHDZDWHU.DQNDDOD HWDO7DPPLQHQ $QGHUVHQ )OHPLQJ/HKWLQHQHWDO7KH%RWKQLDQ

%D\LVDOVRGLVWLQFWLYHO\FKDUDFWHULVHGE\D ORQJLFHFRYHUHGSHULRGZKLFKFDQODVWXSWR PRQWKV,FHVHUYLFH)LQQLVK0HWHRURORJLFDO ,QVWLWXWH$ORQJWKHFRDVWIDVWLFHLVIRUPHG

ZKLOHWKHFHQWUDOSDUWRIWKH%RWKQLDQ%D\LV FRYHUHGE\GULIWDQGSDFNLFH¿HOGV'XHWR WKHSUHYDLOLQJ6:ZLQGVLQZLQWHUWKHLFH SDFNVDQGIRUPVSUHVVXUHULGJHVRIVHYHUDO PHWUHVLQKHLJKWKDPSHULQJWKHZLQWHUWLPH QDYLJDWLRQLQWKH%RWKQLDQ%D\)ROORZLQJ WKH±PLVREDWKZKLFKVHSDUDWHVIDVWDQG GULIWLFH/HSSlUDQWDRQHWKLUGRIWKH

%RWKQLDQ%D\LVIDVWLFHDQGWZRWKLUGVLV GULIWSDFNLFH

,QWKLVWKHVLVVDPSOHVZHUHFROOHFWHG IURPERWKGULIWLFH,DQGIDVWLFH,,LQWKH

%RWKQLDQ%D\'LIIHUHQWW\SHVRIGULIWLFHZHUH VDPSOHGRIIVKRUHIURPYDULRXVORFDWLRQV ZKLOHWKHIDVWLFHVDPSOHVZHUHFROOHFWHGLQ DFRDVWDODUHDLQÀXHQFHGE\WKHLQÀRZLQJ ZDWHUVRIWKHUHJXODWHGHXWURSKLFDWHG5LYHU 6LLNDMRNL1:)LQODQG)LJ7KHEURZQ FRORXUDWLRQDQGS+RIPHDQ±

)LQQLVK(QYLURQPHQW,QVWLWXWHRIWKHULYHU ZDWHUFDQEHDWWULEXWHGWRWKHKLJKDPRXQWRI KXPLFVXEVWDQFHVGUDLQLQJIURPWKHIRUHVW DQGSHDWODQGGRPLQDWHGFDWFKPHQWDUHDRI NP(NKROP7KHPHDQDQQXDO GLVFKDUJHLVDSSUR[PV± DQGWKHKLJKHVWYDOXHVRFFXULQ$SULO±0D\

GXHWRUDLQDQGWKHPHOWLQJRILFHDQGVQRZ )LQQLVK(QYLURQPHQW,QVWLWXWHZKHQWKH FRDVWLVVWLOOLFHFRYHUHGDQGWKHULYHUZDWHU WKXVVSUHDGVDVDIUHVKZDWHUOHQVXQGHUWKH LFHIXUWKHUWKDQGXULQJWKHRSHQVHDSHULRG

*UDQVNRJHWDOD

7YlUPLQQH

7KH89$H[SHULPHQWV,,,,9ZHUHFDUULHG RXWLQWKH*XOIRI)LQODQGLQWKHYLFLQLW\

RIWKH7YlUPLQQH=RRORJLFDO6WDWLRQLQWKH +DQNR3HQLQVXOD6:)LQODQG)LJ7KH VWXG\VLWHLVVKHOWHUHGE\LVODQGVDQGWKH ZDWHUGHSWKLVDERXWP7KHUHDUHQR PDMRUULYHUVÀRZLQJWKURXJKWKHDUHDDQGWKH VXUIDFHZDWHUVDOLQLW\LVJHQHUDOO\EHWZHHQ

(17)

18˚

18˚

20˚

20˚

22˚

22˚

24˚

24˚

26˚

26˚

28˚

28˚

30˚

30˚

60˚ 60˚

62˚ 62˚

64˚ 64˚

66˚ 66˚

18˚

18˚

20˚

20˚

22˚

22˚

24˚

24˚

26˚

26˚

28˚

28˚

30˚

30˚

60˚ 60˚

62˚ 62˚

64˚ 64˚

66˚ 66˚

Finland Sweden

Gulf of Finland Bothnian Sea

Bothnian Bay

Quark

St. 29

St. 31 St. 25 St. 28

St. 26 St. 27

St. PCI

St. 3 St. 5 St. 8 St. 9

Hailuoto

River Siikajoki

)LJ0DSRIWKHVWXG\ORFDWLRQV7KHVWDWLRQV±DQG±DUHWKHIDVWDQG GULIWLFHVDPSOLQJORFDWLRQVLQWKH%RWKQLDQ%D\UHVSHFWLYHO\,,,3DQFDNHLFH ÀRHV3&,ZHUHFROOHFWHGDWWKHLFHHGJHLQWKH%RWKQLDQ6HD7KHVWDUGHQRWHVWKH ORFDWLRQRIWKH7YlUPLQQH=RRORJLFDO6WDWLRQWKHVLWHRIWKH89$VWXGLHV,,,,9

DQG+RZHYHULQZLQWHUDORZVDOLQLW\OD\HU RI±PD\IRUPXQGHUWKHLFHRYHUOD\LQJ WKLV QRUPDO VDOLQLW\ ZDWHU ,,, 7KH LFH FRYHUDJHLQWKHDUHDLVKLJKO\GHSHQGHQWRQ WKHFROGQHVVRIWKHZLQWHU'XULQJVHYHUHDQG PRGHUDWHZLQWHUVLFHFRYHUVWKHDUHDIRU

WRPRQWKVUHDFKLQJWKLFNQHVVHV!FP ZKLOHLQWKHPLOGZLQWHUVWKHVHDUHPDLQV RSHQ7KHFXUUHQWVDQGZLQGVDOVRDIIHFWWKH LFHFRQGLWLRQVDQGVWURQJZLQGVPD\UHPRYH WKHZKROHLFHFRYHUZLWKLQRQHGD\

(18)

0$7(5,$/6$1'0(7+2'6

6DPSOLQJ

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

%D\VWXGLHV7KH8,:VDPSOHVZHUHWDNHQ GLUHFWO\LQWRSODVWLFERWWOHVIURPGULOOKROHV FOHDUHGRIVOXVKZKLOHIRU1%:D/LPQRV ZDWHUVDPSOHUZDVXVHG7KHUHDVRQIRUXVLQJ DERWWOHIRU8,:VDPSOLQJZDVWRREWDLQWKH ZDWHUVDPSOHVIURPDVFORVHDVSRVVLEOHWRWKH LFHERWWRPDQGDVXQGLVWXUEHGDVSRVVLEOH 7KHXVHRID/LPQRVVDPSOHUUHTXLUHVWKH GULOOLQJRIPXOWLSOHDGMDFHQWLFHKROHVWR PDNHDKROHELJHQRXJKIRUWKHVDPSOHUWR

¿WWKURXJKFRQFRPLWDQWO\PL[LQJWKHVXUIDFH ZDWHUOD\HUVDQGFRPSURPLVLQJXQGLVWXUEHG VDPSOHV7KLVZDVRIVLJQL¿FDQFHHVSHFLDOO\

ZKHQWKHWKLQPXQGHULFHSOXPHZDV VDPSOHG,,

0HOWLQJSRVHVDQDFNQRZOHGJHGSUREOHP ZKHQZRUNLQJZLWKLFHVDPSOHV1RWRQO\

LV WKH KDELWDW GHVWUR\HG EXW WKH RQJRLQJ SURFHVVHVHJQXWULHQWXSWDNHH[FUHWLRQ DOWHUWKHVDPSOHVFKHPLFDOO\DQGELRORJLFDOO\

GXULQJWKHORQJPHOWLQJSHULRGDIIHFWLQJ

DFFXUDF\RIWKHUHVXOWV,QWKLVWKHVLVWKH VDPSOHVZHUHDOORZHGWRPHOWVLPLODUO\WR 5\DQHWDOLQVWHDGRIDFFHOHUDWLQJ WKHPHOWLQJE\KHDWLQJWKHVDPSOHVZKLFK FRXOGFDXVHPRUHGDPDJHWRWKHRUJDQLVPV UHVXOWLQJ LQ IRU H[DPSOH WKH UHOHDVH RI LQWUDFHOOXODUQXWULHQWVDQGORVVRIFKODDQG ELRPDVV7KHFROOHFWHGLFHVDPSOHVZHUH PHOWHGLQ1DOJHQHSODVWLFFRQWDLQHUVDWž&

IRUDERXWKZLWKRUZLWKRXWWKHDGGLWLRQRI

—P¿OWHUHGVHDZDWHU)6:GHSHQGLQJ RQWKHPHDVXUHGYDULDEOHV,QSDSHUV,DQG,, WKHGLUHFWO\PHOWHGLFHVDPSOHVZHUHXVHGIRU VDOLQLW\DQGQXWULHQWPHDVXUHPHQWVZKHUHDV ELRORJLFDOYDULDEOHVZHUHPHDVXUHGIURP VDPSOHVZLWK)6:7KHDGGLWLRQRI)6:

UHGXFHV WKH PHOWLQGXFHG RVPRWLF VWUHVV WRVHDLFHDOJDHHVSHFLDOO\WRÀDJHOODWHV

*DUULVRQ %XFNDQGLVQHFHVVDU\

IRU REWDLQLQJ SUHFLVH ELRPDVV HVWLPDWHV FKOD FRQFHQWUDWLRQV DQG SKRWRV\QWKHWLF DFWLYLWLHVZKHQVDOLQLW\FKDQJHVDUHJUHDWHU WKDQVHYHQ,QWKHVWXG\RI.DDUWRNDOOLR WKHGLUHFWPHOWLQJSURFHGXUHGLGQRW FDXVHDQ\UHGXFWLRQVLQFKODFRQFHQWUDWLRQ RUSULPDU\SURGXFWLYLW\ZKHUHDVLQ)HEUXDU\

DVLPLODUWHVWZLWK%DOWLF6HDIDVWLFH VDPSOHVUHYHDOHGD±IROGGLIIHUHQFHLQ WKHFKODFRQFHQWUDWLRQEHWZHHQEXIIHUHGDQG GLUHFWO\PHOWHGVDPSOHV,QDQXQSXEOLVKHG VWXG\IURPWKHVDPHDUHDFKODGLGQRWVKRZ DQ\VLJQL¿FDQWGLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQGLUHFW DQGEXIIHUHGPHOWLQJEXWSULPDU\SURGXFWLRQ

—J&—JFKODKZDVKLJKHULQWKHODWWHU FDVH5LQWDODHWDOLQSUHS7KLVVKRZVWKDW PRUHGHWDLOHGH[SHULPHQWVXQGHUYDU\LQJ VDOLQLWLHVDUHVWLOOQHHGHGWRFRQFUHWL]HWKH VLJQL¿FDQFHRIWKHPHOWLQJSURFHGXUHIRUWKH LFHVDPSOHVLQ%DOWLF6HD7KHPDLQIRFXVLQ 89$VWXGLHV,,,,9ZDVRQEDFWHULDZKLFK DUHQRWDIIHFWHGE\VDOLQLW\FKDQJHV+HOPNH :H\ODQGDQGRQO\GLUHFWPHOWLQJ ZDVWKHUHIRUHDSSOLHGVHHEHORZIRUGHWDLOV

(19)

%RWKQLDQ%D\

7KHVDPSOLQJRIGULIWLFH,ZDVFRQGXFWHG RQERDUG 59 0DULD 6 0HULDQ 7KH /HLEQL],QVWLWXWHIRU%DOWLF6HD5HVHDUFK :DUQHPQGHIURPVHYHQORFDWLRQVIURP WKHVRXWKRI4XDUNWRWKH1(%RWKQLDQ%D\

LQHDUO\0DUFK)LJ7KHDLPZDV WRVDPSOHRYHUDODUJHDUHDDQGFROOHFWGULIW LFHRIGLIIHUHQWW\SHVDQGWKLFNQHVVHVZLWKLQ WKHERXQGDULHVVHWE\QDYLJDELOLW\$WHDFK VWDWLRQWKUHHLFHFRUHVZHUHREWDLQHGRQH RI ZKLFK ZDV XVHG IRU QXWULHQW RQH IRU ELRORJLFDODQGRQHIRUVWUXFWXUDODQDO\VLV 7KH WZR ¿UVW FRUHV ZHUH FXW LQWR ± SLHFHV DW DSSUR[LPDWHO\ FP LQWHUYDOV DQGPHOWHGZKLOHWKHODVWFRUHZDVVWRUHG IUR]HQž&IRUODWHUSURFHVVLQJ2QHRI WKHVOLFHGFRUHVZDVPHOWHGGLUHFWO\DQGWKH VHFRQGZLWK)6:DGGLWLRQVDOLQLW\±

3DQFDNHLFHÀRHVUHSOLFDWHVZHUH FROOHFWHGXVLQJDPHWDOFDVNHWDQGPHOWHG GLUHFWO\2WKHUZLVHVDPSOLQJRIUHSOLFDWHLFH VDPSOHVZDVLPSRVVLEOHGXHWROLPLWDWLRQVLQ VDPSOHSURFHVVLQJHJPDQSRZHUWLPHDQG ODERUDWRU\VSDFH$VWKHDLPLQWKLVVWXG\

ZDVWROLQNWKHDELRWLFWRELRWLFIDFWRUVLQ GLIIHUHQWLFHW\SHVUDWKHUWKDQWRVWXG\WKH KRUL]RQWDOYDULDELOLW\SHUVHWKHUHSOLFDWHV ZHUHQRWQHFHVVDU\DOWKRXJKWKH\ZRXOGKDYH SURYLGHGPRUHVXSSRUWIRUWKHREVHUYDWLRQV

7KHIDVWLFHVDPSOHVLQSDSHU,,ZHUH FROOHFWHGDORQJDWUDQVHFWZLWKGHFOLQLQJ ULYHULQHLQÀXHQFH6WDWWKUHHGLIIHUHQW VWDJHVRIWKHLFHVHDVRQLQ)HEUXDU\±$SULO 7KHRULJLQDOLGHDZDVWRVDPSOHIURP WKHVDPHVWDWLRQVDV*UDQVNRJHWDOD EXWWKHYDU\LQJZHDWKHUDQGLFHFRQGLWLRQV VHWORJLVWLFDOOLPLWDWLRQVDQGVWDWLRQVDQG ZHUHFRQVHTXHQWO\ORFDWHGWRWKHQRUWK RI WKHLU WUDQVHFW DQG VWDWLRQ ZDV RQO\

VDPSOHGLQ0DUFK,Q$SULOVWDWLRQV±

ZHUHLQDFFHVVLEOHGXHWRDGYDQFHGPHOWLQJ DQGVDPSOHVZHUHWDNHQQHDUWKH6:FRDVW

RI+DLOXRWR,VODQG6W)LJ$WHDFK VDPSOLQJUHSOLFDWHVZHUHWDNHQIURPDQ DUHDRIDERXWPDQGFXWLQWRWRHTXDOO\

WKLFNSLHFHV,,7KUHHRIWKHLFHFRUHVZHUH PHOWHGGLUHFWO\ZKLOHWKHUHVWZHUHPHOWHG ZLWKDXWRFODYHG)6:VDOLQLW\

89$H[SHULPHQWV

7KHH[SHULPHQWDOVHWXSLQWKHLQVLWX89$

H[SHULPHQWV,,,,9FRQVLVWHGRIWZRWHQW VKDSHGZRRGHQIUDPHVFRYHULQJDQDUHDRI PHDFKRQHRIWKHPEHLQJFRYHUHG ZLWK89$WUDQVSDUHQWSODVWLFIRLO 3$589$WUHDWPHQWDQGWKHRWKHUZLWK 895RSDTXHIRLO5RVFRODE/WGWUDQVPLWWLQJ SUDFWLFDOO\QRWKLQJEHORZQP3$5 WUHDWPHQW%RWKRIWKHIRLOVDOORZHG±

WUDQVPLVVLRQRIWKHYLVLEOHZDYHOHQJWKV 7KHXQLWVZHUHDQFKRUHGRQWRVQRZIUHHVHD LFHDWDVLWHZLWKPLQLPXPVKDGLQJIURP QHDUE\ODQG7KHXQWUHDWHGVQRZFRYHUHG LFHZLWKYDU\LQJVQRZGHSWKDQGWKHWUHDWHG LFH3$589$3$5ZHUHVDPSOHGHYHU\

VHYHQGD\VVWDUWLQJRQQG0DUFKDQGHQGLQJ WK0DUFKLQZLWKRQHH[WUDVDPSOLQJ DIWHUIRXUGD\VRILQFXEDWLRQ,,,7KHWUHDWHG LFHVWDUWHGWRPHOWRQHZHHNHDUOLHUWKDQ XQWUHDWHGLFHGXHWRWKHJUHHQKRXVHHIIHFW RIWKHWHQWVDQGWKHODVWVDPSOLQJZDVWKXV H[FOXGHGIURPWKHGDWDDQDO\VLV)LJ$,Q WKHUHZHUHWZRZHHNLQFXEDWLRQVRQH LQ)HEUXDU\WKWRVWDQGRQHLQ0DUFK WKWRWK,9,QWKHVHH[SHULPHQWV VDPSOHVZHUHDOVRFROOHFWHGRQFHDZHHN 6KRUWLQFXEDWLRQVRIOHVVWKDQRQHGD\WHQG WRJLYHWKHZRUVWFDVHVFHQDULRVDVRUJDQLVPV GRQRWKDYHWLPHWRDFFOLPDWL]HEXWLQORQJ WHUPLQFXEDWLRQV±ZHHNVWKHSRVVLEOH IHHGEDFNPHFKDQLVPVDUHDFFRXQWHGIRUDQG WKHUHVXOWVDUHPRUHUHDOLVWLF%RWKZHOOHWDO 9LOODIDxHHWDO

(20)

'XHWROLPLWHGPDQSRZHUUHSOLFDWHXQLWV ZHUH QRW XVHG LQ WKH 89$ H[SHULPHQWV 6LPLODUO\WRSRODUVHDLFHWKHYDULDELOLW\LQ

%DOWLF6HDLFHSURSHUWLHVLVYHU\KLJKDWDOO GLVWDQFHVDQGPDQ\YDULDEOHVDUHFRUUHODWHG ZLWK LFH WKLFNQHVV (LFNHQ HW DO 6WHIIHQVHWDO7KXVLQRUGHUWRHQVXUH VLPLODUFRQGLWLRQVLQWHUPVRILFHWKLFNQHVV DQGELRORJLFDOFKDUDFWHULVWLFVWKHFRUHVKDGWR EHWDNHQFORVHWRHDFKRWKHUDQGWKHSUDFWLFDO VROXWLRQZDVWKHXVHRIRQHWHQWSHUWUHDWPHQW )RUWKHVDPHUHDVRQWKHWHQWVZHUHSODFHG FORVHWRJHWKHUEXWVRWKDWWKHLQWHUIHUHQFHRI RQHWHQWZLWKDQRWKHUZDVPLQLPDO$QHIIRUW WRUHGXFHWKHHIIHFWRIKRUL]RQWDOSDWFKLQHVV ZDVPDGHE\UDQGRPVDPSOLQJRI±LFH FRUHVIURPHDFKXQLWDUHD,PPHGLDWHO\DIWHU VDPSOLQJWKHLFHVDPSOHVZHUHFXWWRLQWR WRSLHFHVGHSHQGLQJRQWKHLFHWKLFNQHVV EXWDOZD\VVRWKDWWKHXSSHUPRVWLFHZDVFXW LQWRFPSLHFHV3DUWRIHDFKSDUDOOHOLFH VDPSOHZDVXVHGIRUEDFWHULDOSURGXFWLRQ PHDVXUHPHQWVHHEHORZZKLOHWKHUHVW ZDVGLUHFWO\PHOWHGDQGSRROHGWRHQVXUH VXI¿FLHQWPDWHULDOIRUIXUWKHUSURFHVVLQJ7KH FKORURSK\OODDQGDOJDOELRPDVVRIWKHPRVW VHQVLWLYHVSHFLHVFRXOGKDYHEHHQDIIHFWHG E\WKHGLUHFWPHOWLQJEXWWKLVZDVWDNHQLQWR FRQVLGHUDWLRQZKHQWKHGDWDZHUHDQDO\]HG

0HDVXUHPHQWV

3K\VLFRFKHPLFDOYDULDEOHV

7KH DLU WHPSHUDWXUH GDWD ZHUH REWDLQHG IURPWKH)LQQLVK0HWHRURORJLFDO,QVWLWXWH ,, DQG IURP WKH7YlUPLQQH =RRORJLFDO 6WDWLRQ,,,,9,QWKH%RWKQLDQ%D\VWXGLHV ,,,WKHLFHWHPSHUDWXUHSUR¿OHVDWHDFK VWDWLRQZHUHGHWHUPLQHGIURPRQHH[WUDFRUH XVLQJD7HVWRWKHUPRPHWHU7KHVDOLQLW\

WHPSHUDWXUHSUR¿OHVLQWKHXQGHUO\LQJZDWHU ZHUHREWDLQHGLQWKHIDVWLFHVWXG\,,ZLWKD

<6,PHWHU<HOORZ6SULQJV,QVWUXPHQWV 7KHVDPHLQVWUXPHQWZDVDOVRXVHGLQDOOWKH VWXGLHVIRUEXONVDOLQLW\PHDVXUHPHQWVRI WKHPHOWHGLFHVDPSOHV7KHEULQHYROXPH HVWLPDWHVIRU%RWKQLDQ%D\VDPSOHV,,, ZHUHFDOFXODWHGEDVHGRQWKHLFHWHPSHUDWXUH DQGVDOLQLW\PHDVXUHPHQWV&R[ :HHNV /HSSlUDQWD 0DQQLQHQ

7KH LFH FU\VWDO VWUXFWXUH RI GULIW LFH VDPSOHV,ZDVGHWHUPLQHGE\SRODUL]LQJ

±FPORQJDQGFPWKLFNLFHVHFWLRQV EHWZHHQWZRFURVVHGSRODUL]DWLRQSODWHVDQG FODVVLI\LQJWKHLFHDVJUDQXODUFROXPQDURU WUDQVLWLRQDOEDVHGRQWKHFU\VWDOVL]HDQG VKDSH7KHSRUWLRQRIPHWHRULFLFHLHVQRZ LFHDQGVXSHULPSRVHGLFHLQWKHLFHFROXPQV ZDVGHWHUPLQHGIURPWKHPHOWHGLFHVDPSOHV ZLWKVWDEOHR[\JHQLVRWRSHį2DQDO\VLV -HIIULHV HW DO XVLQJ D )LQQLJDQ 0$7 'HOWD 3OXV ;/ PDVV VSHFWURPHWHU LQFRQWLQXRXVÀRZPRGHLQWHUIDFHGWRD

*DV%HQFK,,

7KH JOREDO UDGLDWLRQ GLIIXVH DQG GLUHFW IURP WR QP GXULQJ WKH 89$H[SHULPHQWVLQDQG,,, ,9ZDVPHDVXUHGHYHU\KDOIDQKRXUZLWK D *UR:HDWKHU VWDWLRQ DW WKH 7YlUPLQQH

=RRORJLFDO 6WDWLRQ 1R LQVWUXPHQWDWLRQ ZDVDYDLODEOHWRFRQWLQXRXVO\PHDVXUH89$

UDGLDWLRQEXWDV89$JHQHUDOO\FRPSULVHV DFRQVWDQWSRUWLRQRIWKHVRODUUDGLDWLRQ LWFDQEHDSSUR[LPDWHGWKDW89$YDULHG DVDIXQFWLRQRIWKHJOREDOUDGLDWLRQ7KH GRZQZHOOLQJUDGLDWLRQLQVLGHWKHXQWUHDWHG VHDLFHVQRZIUHHLFH817DQGWUHDWHG LFH3$53$589$LQWKH89$

H[SHULPHQWV ,9 ZDV PHDVXUHG ZLWK D 5DPVHV$&& +\SHUVSHFWUDO ,UUDGLDQFH 6HQVRU±QPDWWDFKHGWRDPHWDO FDVLQJDQGDLPHGDWDGLIIXVHO\UHÀHFWLQJ WDUJHWZLWKFPGLVWDQFHIURPWKHVHQVRU VHHSDSHU,9IRUGHWDLOV0HDVXUHPHQWV ZHUHFDUULHGRXWRQWKUHHRFFDVLRQVWK WKDQGWK0DUFKZLWKWRFP

(21)

LQWHUYDOVVWDUWLQJFPEHORZWKHLFHVXUIDFH E\GULOOLQJDKROHWKHVL]HRIWKHVHQVRUSUREH DQGVHWWLQJWKHVHQVRUDWWKHGHVLUHGGHSWKV LQWKHLFH&KDQJHVLQWKHJOREDOUDGLDWLRQ ZKLOHWDNLQJWKHPHDVXUHPHQWVLQWKHLFH ZHUHFRPSHQVDWHGE\PHDVXULQJWKHJOREDO LQFRPLQJ UDGLDWLRQ ZLWK D /LFRU /, S\UDQRPHWHU ± QP DW WKH LFH VXUIDFHGXULQJHYHU\PHDVXUHPHQW

7KH LQRUJDQLF QXWULHQWV 32 1+

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

&HQWUH2XOX)LQODQG

&KORURSK\OODDQGELRPDVV

&KORURSK\OODFRQFHQWUDWLRQV—JOZHUH PHDVXUHGLQHYHU\VWXG\RIWKLVWKHVLV,Q SDSHUV,DQG,,WKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQLFHZHUH GHWHUPLQHGIURPVDPSOHVPHOWHGZLWK)6:

DQGWKHUHVXOWVZHUHFRUUHFWHGIRUWKHGLOXWLRQ FDXVHG E\ WKH )6: DGGLWLRQ 7KH FKOD FRQWHQWLQWKH—PIUDFWLRQZDVPHDVXUHG LQWKHIDVWLFHVWXG\,,E\¿OWHULQJWKHVDPSOH WKURXJKD—PSRO\FDUERQDWHPHPEUDQH

¿OWHU3RUHWLFV7KHFKODFRQFHQWUDWLRQV LQERWK89$H[SHULPHQWV,,,,9ZHUH REWDLQHGIURPGLUHFWO\PHOWHGVDPSOHVDQG WKHFKODVDPSOHSURFHVVLQJIROORZHGWKH

JXLGHOLQHVRI+(/&20ZKLFKKDYH EHHQDGDSWHGVSHFL¿FDOO\IRU%DOWLF6HDZDWHU VDPSOHV9ROXPHVRI±PORILFHDQG 8,:VDPSOHVDOLTXRWVSHUVDPSOHZHUH

¿OWHUHGRQ*))¿OWHUV:KDWPDQZKLFK ZHUHWKHQSODFHGLQVFLQWLOODWLRQYLDOV,,±

,9RUSODVWLFWHVWWXEHV,ZLWKPORI YYHWKDQRODQGZHUHOHIWWRH[WUDFWLQ GDUNQHVVDWURRPWHPSHUDWXUHIRUK,I PHDVXUHPHQWVFRXOGQRWEHXQGHUWDNHQLQ KRXUVWKHVDPSOHVZHUHIUR]HQž&DQG DQDO\VHGODWHU$IWHUH[WUDFWLRQWKHH[WUDFW ZDV ¿OWHUHG WKURXJK *)) WR UHGXFH WKH WXUELGLW\ÀXRUHVFHQFHZDVPHDVXUHGZLWKD -DVFR)3VSHFWURÀXRURPHWHUH[FLWDWLRQ QPHPLVVLRQQPFDOLEUDWHGZLWK SXUH FKOD DQG WKH FRQFHQWUDWLRQV ZHUH FDOFXODWHGDFFRUGLQJWR+(/&20

)RUWKHHQXPHUDWLRQRIDOJDOVSHFLHVPO ,±,,,PO,9RIHDFKVDPSOHSUHVHUYHG ZLWK DFLGLF /XJRO¶V VROXWLRQ ,,±,,, RU JOXWDUDOGHK\GH¿QDOFRQFHQWUDWLRQ ,,9ZDVVHWWOHGIRUK8WHUP|KO 7KHDOJDOFHOOVZHUHFRXQWHGXVLQJD/HLFD LQYHUWHGOLJKWPLFURVFRSHHTXLSSHGZLWK SKDVHFRQWUDVWRFXODUVDQG

DQGREMHFWLYHV$OJDOGHQVLWLHVZHUH

FRQYHUWHGWRELRPDVVLQVWXGLHV,,,DQG,,, ,QWKH¿UVWWZRSDSHUVWKHLFHDOJDOELRPDVV ZDVGHWHUPLQHGIRUVDPSOHVPHOWHGZLWK )6:ZKLOHLQSDSHU,,,WKHGLUHFWPHOWLQJ RIVDPSOHVPD\KDYHUHVXOWHGLQVRPHORVV RIWKHÀDJHOODWHELRPDVV*DUULVRQ %XFN +RZHYHUDVWKHIRFXVLQWKHSDSHU ,,,ZDVPRUHRQWKHGLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQWKH WUHDWPHQWVDQGQRWRQWKHDEVROXWHYDOXHV WKH ELRPDVV HVWLPDWHV ZHUH RI YDOXH ,Q SDSHU,WKHELRPDVVHVZHUHJLYHQDVZHW ZHLJKW—JZZOFDOFXODWHGXVLQJVSHFLHV VSHFL¿FELRYROXPHV2OHQLQDHWDO.

.LYLXQSXEOZKHUHDVLQSDSHUV,,±,,,DQG WKLVWKHVLVWKHDOJDOELRPDVVLVSUHVHQWHG DV FDUERQ ȝJ & O FDOFXODWHG E\ XVLQJ VSHFLHVDQGVL]HVSHFL¿FFDUERQFRQWHQWV

(22)

0HQGHQ'HXHU /HVVDUG2OHQLQDHW DO,QSDSHU,9RQO\GLDWRPGHQVLWLHV ZHUHSUHVHQWHGDVJOXWDUDOGHK\GH¿[DWLRQLV QRWVXLWDEOHIRUÀDJHOODWHGVSHFLHV

7KHELRPDVVRISURWR]RDDQGPHWD]RD LQWKH%RWKQLDQ%D\VDPSOHV,,,XQSXEO ZDVGHWHUPLQHGIURPWKHVDPHVDPSOHVZLWK DOJDOELRPDVVDQGXVLQJWKHVDPHFRXQWLQJ SURWRFRO,QSDSHU,WKHELRPDVVLVJLYHQDV DZHWZHLJKWYDOXH—JZZOZKHUHDVWKH XQSXEOLVKHGGDWDIURP%RWKLDQ%D\IDVWLFH ZHUHFRQYHUWHGWRFDUERQȝJ&OXVLQJ D¿[HGSHUFHQWDJHRIDVWKHFDUERQ FRQWHQWRIWKHZHWZHLJKW..LYLXQSXEO

3KRWRV\QWKHVLVLUUDGLDQFH PHDVXUHPHQWV

3ULPDU\SURGXFWLRQLQVHDLFHLVDPXFK GLVFXVVHG WRSLF EXW WR GDWH QR DFFXUDWH PHWKRGVKDYHEHHQDYDLODEOHWRPHDVXUHLW

$UULJRHWDO2QHRIWKHPRVWFRPPRQ PHWKRGV LV WR PHDVXUH SKRWRV\QWKHVLV LUUDGLDQFH UHVSRQVHV 3( ZKLFK \LHOG HVWLPDWHV RI SKRWRV\QWKHWLF HI¿FLHQF\

WKH PD[LPXP SKRWRV\QWKHWLF UDWH DQG SKRWRLQKLELWLRQ 7KH 3( FXUYHV LQ WKLV WKHVLV,±,,,ZHUHREWDLQHGE\PHDVXULQJ +&2LQFRUSRUDWLRQ6WHHPDQQ1LHOVHQ XQGHUOLJKWOHYHOVIURPWR

—(PVXVLQJ3(LQFXEDWRUVHTXLSSHGZLWK JUHHQ¿OWHUVUHVXOWLQJLQDVSHFWUXPIURP WRQP9ROXPHVRIPOSHUVDPSOHZHUH LQFXEDWHGZLWK—ODGGLWLRQVRI1D+&2

¿QDOFRQFHQWUDWLRQRI—&LPO'+, :DWHUDQG(QYLURQPHQWIRUKLQLQFXEDWRUV FRROHGE\FLUFXODWLQJLFHFROGZDWHUWKURXJK WKHP7KHLQFXEDWLRQVZHUHVWRSSHGZLWKWKH DGGLWLRQRI—ORIIRUPDOGHK\GH¿QDO FRQFHQWUDWLRQDQGWKHVDPSOHVZHUH DFLGL¿HGZLWK1+&OIRUKRXUV$IWHU WKDWPORI,QVWD*HOVFLQWLOODWLRQFRFNWDLO 3HUNLQ(OPHUZDVDGGHGWRHDFKVDPSOHDQG

WKHUDGLRDFWLYLW\'30RIWKHVDPSOHVZDV PHDVXUHGZLWKD:DOODF:LQ6SHFWUDO VFLQWLOODWLRQFRXQWHU

7KH FKORURSK\OOD QRUPDOL]HG FDUERQ XSWDNH UDWHV —J & —J FKOD K ZHUH FDOFXODWHGXVLQJWKHIROORZLQJHTXDWLRQ

7FKO '30

N 7,&N '30

3 '30

DGGHG

GDUN

ZKHUH'30GDUNLVWKHDYHUDJHRIWZRGDUN LQFXEDWHGVDPSOHV7,&LVWKHWRWDOLQRUJDQLF FDUERQLQWKHVDPSOHNLVWKHPHWDEROLF FDUERQLVRWRSHGLVFULPLQDWLRQFRUUHFWLRQ IDFWRU 1LHOVHQ %UHVWD NLVWKHGLOXWLRQIDFWRUIRU)6:DGGLWLRQ QRWLQ,,,'30DGGHGLVWKHUDGLRDFWLYLW\

DGGHGWRHDFKVDPSOHGSP 7LVWKHLQFXEDWLRQWLPHKDQGFKOLVWKH FKORURSK\OODFRQFHQWUDWLRQPJO)RU ZDWHUVDPSOHVDQG)6:7,&ZDVREWDLQHG IURPVDOLQLW\E\XVLQJWKHHTXDWLRQRI%XFK 7KH7,& FRQFHQWUDWLRQV PJ O RILFHVDPSOHV)6:ZHUHFDOFXODWHGDV YROXPHZHLJKWHGDYHUDJHVRI7,&LQ)6:

DQG7,& LQ GLUHFWO\ PHOWHG LFH VDPSOHV ZKLFKZHUHREWDLQHGIURPWKHVDOLQLW\7,&

UHJUHVVLRQFXUYH+.XRVDXQSXEOQ

5 7KHHTXDWLRQRI%XFK

ZRUNVIRUVHDZDWHUEXWJLYHVLQFRUUHFWYDOXHV IRUPHOWHG%DOWLFVHDLFHVDPSOHVDQGWKH VDOLQLW\7,&UHJUHVVLRQFXUYHZDVWKHUHIRUH XVHG+.XRVDSHUVFRPP7KHUHDVRQV IRUWKHXQVXLWDELOLW\RIWKH%XFK¶VHTXDWLRQDUH XQFOHDUEXWDUHSUREDEO\UHODWHGWRWKHFORVHG V\VWHPDQGXQGHUVDWXUDWLRQRI&2LQLFH 7KHH[SRQHQWLDOPRGHORI3ODWWHWDO ZDV¿WWHGWRWKHGDWDDQGWKHSKRWRV\QWKHWLF HI¿FLHQF\Į%PD[LPXPSKRWRV\QWKHWLF FDSDFLW\3%PD[SKRWRLQKLELWLRQȕ%DQG OLJKWVDWXUDWLRQLQGH[(N 3%PD[Į%ZHUH FDOFXODWHG

(23)

%DFWHULDOQXPEHUVDQGSURGXFWLRQ 7KHWRWDOEDFWHULDOQXPEHUV7%1,,,,9 ZHUHREWDLQHGE\¿OWHULQJ±PORIWKH WKDZHGJOXWDUDOGHK\GHSUHVHUYHGVDPSOHV

¿QDO FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RQ —P SRO\FDUERQDWH¿OWHUV2VPRQLFVVWDLQLQJ WKHPZLWKDFULGLQHRUDQJH+REELH HWDODQGFRXQWLQJDWOHDVWEDFWHULD IURP¿HOGVLQDFRXQWLQJJULG1HZ3RUWRQ (XQGHUEOXHH[FLWDWLRQOLJKW,¿OWHU EORFNXVLQJDQHSLÀXRUHVFHQFHPLFURVFRSH /HLW]$ULVWRSODQHTXLSSHGZLWKD3/)OXRWDU

 RLO LPPHUVLRQ REMHFWLYH

/HLFD

%DFWHULDO SURGXFWLRQ LQ VHD LFH ZDV PHDVXUHG DV WKH WRWDO LQFRUSRUDWLRQ RI

+WK\PLGLQH77,,,,,9DQG&OHXFLQH 7/, ,,, )XKUPDQ $]DP .LUFKPDQHWDO7KHGXDOODEHOOLQJ DSSURDFKZDVFKRVHQLQRUGHUWRGHWHFWWKH EDODQFHLPEDODQFHLQEDFWHULDOJURZWKDQG WKHVHQVLWLYLW\RI'1$DQGSURWHLQV\QWKHVLV WR89$DVWKHVHSURFHVVHVPD\UHVSRQG GLIIHUHQWO\WRGLIIHUHQWZDYHOHQJWKV6LPRQ

$DVHWDO6RPPDUXJDHWDO ,QVWHDGRIPHOWLQJWKHLFHVDPSOHV WKHVDPSOHVZHUHLQFXEDWHGDVLFHFUXVK7KLV WHFKQLTXHSUHVHUYHVWKHRULJLQDOKDELWDWRIWKH VHDLFHEDFWHULDDQGHQDEOHVWKHLPPHGLDWH SURFHVVLQJRIWKHVDPSOHVDQGKLJKHU%3 HVWLPDWHV DUH FRQVHTXHQWO\ \LHOGHG WKDQ ZLWKPHOWHGVDPSOHV+HOPNH :H\ODQG .DDUWRNDOOLR,QWKLVSURWRFRO LFHVDPSOHVDUHFUXVKHGZLWKDVSLNHDQGDQ HOHFWULFDOLFHFUXVKHUDSSUR[JaPO RILFHFUXVKLVZHLJKHGLQDVFLQWLOODWLRQYLDO DQGPORIFRQFHQWUDWHGDXWRFODYHG)6:LV DGGHGWRVLPXODWHEULQHVDOLQLW\DQGHQVXUH HYHQGLVWULEXWLRQRIODEHOOHGWK\PLGLQHDQG OHXFLQH$GVRUSWLRQEODQNVDQGUHSOLFDWHV RIHDFKVDPSOHDUHWKHQLQFXEDWHGLQWKH LFHZDWHUSKDVHZLWKDGGLWLRQVRIODEHOOHG WK\PLGLQHDQGOHXFLQHLQWKHGDUNIRUDERXW

K DIWHU ZKLFK WKH VDPSOHV DUH ¿[HG ZLWKIRUPDOGHK\GHDQGSURFHVVHGZLWKWKH VWDQGDUGFROGWULFKORURDFHWLFDFLG7&$

H[WUDFWLRQ PHWKRG )XKUPDQ DQG $]DP DQG¿OWHUHGRQWR—P06(¿OWHUV 7KH¿OWHUVDUHWKHQGLVVROYHGLQVFLQWLOODWLRQ FRFNWDLODQGWKHUDGLRDFWLYLW\LVPHDVXUHG ZLWKVFLQWLOODWLRQFRXQWHU

,QWKLVWKHVLV,,,,9EODQNDQG±

UHSOLFDWHVSHUVDPSOHZHUHZHLJKHGXVLQJ D 0HWWOHU 3( ODERUDWRU\ EDODQFH DQGWKHDGGHGDXWRFODYHG)6:KDGEHHQ FRQFHQWUDWHGE\HYDSRUDWLRQWRDVDOLQLW\

RIa[VHDZDWHUVDOLQLW\DWWKHVWXG\

VLWH7KHDGVRUSWLRQEODQNVZHUH¿[HGZLWK IRUPDOGHK\GH¿QDOFRQFHQWUDWLRQ SULRUWRDGGLWLRQVRI>PHWK\O+@WK\PLGLQH DQG />&8@OHXFLQH 3HUNLQ(OPHU DW

¿QDOFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIQ0DQGQ0 UHVSHFWLYHO\7KHVHVDWXUDWLQJFRQFHQWUDWLRQV ZHUHEDVHGRQHDUOLHUPHDVXUHPHQWVIURP WKH DUHD DW YDULRXV VWDJHV GXULQJ ZLQWHU .DDUWRNDOOLR.XRVD .DDUWRNDOOLR 3LLSDULQHQXQSXEO,QPRVWRIWKH PHDVXUHPHQWV WKH ODEHOOHG OHXFLQH ZDV GLOXWHG ZLWK FDUULHU OHXFLQH LQ WKH UDWLR RI7KHKLJKVDWXUDWLRQFRQFHQWUDWLRQ RIOHXFLQHLQFRPSDULVRQWRDSSUR[

Q0XVHGLQ%DOWLF6HDRSHQZDWHUVWXGLHV 3LLSDULQHQ XQSXEO FRXOG EH OLQNHG WR WKHQHHGIRUDPLQRDFLGVIRUH[DPSOHLQ RVPRUHJXODWLRQRUWRWKHXVHRIOHXFLQHDVD VXEVWUDWH0RFNHWDO.DDUWRNDOOLRHW DO/HXFLQHKDVEHHQUHSRUWHGWRDOVR EHLQFRUSRUDWHGE\F\DQREDFWHULD.DPMXQNH -lKQLFKHQ+LHWDQHQHWDO EXWDVF\DQREDFWHULDDUHQHYHUDVLJQL¿FDQW FRPSRQHQWLQLFHDOJDOFRPPXQLWLHVWKLV ZDVQRWFRQVLGHUHGDVDSUREOHPZLWKVHD LFH7KHVDPSOHVZHUHLQFXEDWHGLQDQ/06 FRROHGLQFXEDWRUDWDSSUR[ž&IRU

±KDIWHUZKLFKWKH\ZHUH¿[HGZLWK IRUPDOGHK\GH7KHLQFXEDWLRQWLPHIRU%DOWLF VHDLFH VDPSOHV ZDV HDUOLHU GHWHUPLQHG

(24)

E\.DDUWRNDOOLRDQGWKHOHQJWKLV H[SODLQHGE\WKHVORZEDFWHULDOSURFHVVHV LQVXE]HURWHPSHUDWXUHV/L]RWWHDQG UHIHUHQFHVWKHUHLQ$IWHU7&$H[WUDFWLRQWKH VDPSOHVZHUH¿OWHUHGRQ—P06(¿OWHUV '+,:DWHU (QYLURQPHQWIROORZHGE\

VFLQWLOODWLRQFRXQWLQJXVLQJ,QVWD*HO3OXV VFLQWLOODWLRQFRFNWDLO3HUNLQ(OPHUDQGD :DOODF:LQ6SHFWUDOFRXQWHU7KHYDOXHV RIWK\PLGLQHEODQNVZHUHJHQHUDOO\KLJK RIWKHUHSOLFDWHYDOXHVRFFDVLRQDOO\

UHVXOWLQJLQYHU\ORZLQFRUSRUDWLRQUDWHV 7KH EODQN YDOXHV RI WKH ZDWHU VDPSOHV ZHUHHTXDOO\KLJKGDWDQRWVKRZQZKLFK SRLQWVWRKLJKHUDGVRUSWLRQRIWK\PLGLQHLQ IUHH]LQJWHPSHUDWXUHVFRPSDUHGWRVXPPHU WHPSHUDWXUHVLQWKH%DOWLF6HD7KHKLJKHU EODQNYDOXHVPD\DOVREHDUHVXOWRIWKHORQJ LQFXEDWLRQWLPH,QOHXFLQHLQFRUSRUDWLRQ WKLVZDVQRWDSUREOHPDQGWKHUHSOLFDWHV ZHUHDWOHDVWWHQWLPHVWKHEODQNYDOXHV

0ROHFXODUPHWKRGV

7KH GLIIHUHQFHV LQ EDFWHULDO FRPPXQLW\

FRPSRVLWLRQEHWZHHQXQWUHDWHG3$589$

WUHDWPHQWDQG3$5WUHDWPHQWLQSDSHU,9 ZHUHGHWHUPLQHGXVLQJWHUPLQDOUHVWULFWLRQ IUDJPHQWOHQJWKSRO\PRUSKLVP75)/3 /LXHWDO,QWKLVPHWKRGEDFWHULDO VSHFLHVDUHLGHDOO\VHSDUDWHGE\WKHLUGLIIHUHQW UHVWULFWLRQSRVLWLRQVLQDVLQJOHJHQHLQWKLV FDVH67KHOHQJWKVDQGDPSOLWXGHVRI UHVXOWLQJIUDJPHQWV75)VIURPWKHGLJHVWLRQ RIÀXRUHVFHQWO\ODEHOOHG3&5SURGXFWVZLWK DUHVWULFWLRQHQ]\PHDUHWKHQGHWHUPLQHG ZLWK D '1$ VHTXHQFHU 7KH UHVXOWLQJ IUDJPHQWOHQJWKVDUHWKHQFRPSDUHGWRWKH 75)OHQJWKVRIVHTXHQFHGFORQHVREWDLQHG IURPVHOHFWHGVDPSOHVLHFORQHOLEUDU\

7KH75)/3DSSURDFKZDVFKRVHQGXHWR WKHLQVHQVLWLYHQHVVRIGHQDWXULQJJUDGLHQW JHOHOHFWURSKRUHVLV'**(LQGHWHFWLQJWKH

GLIIHUHQFHVLQFRPPXQLW\FRPSRVLWLRQLQRXU VDPSOHVFI0RHVHQHGHUHWDO7KH ZKROHSURWRFROLQFOXGLQJWKHVHOHFWLRQRI WKHWKUHHUHVWULFWLRQHQ]\PHVZDVDGDSWHG IRU%DOWLF6HDLFHVDPSOHVE\((URQHQ LQ SUHS 7KH GLJHVWLRQV FORQLQJ DQG VHTXHQFLQJZHUHFDUULHGRXWDWWKH,QVWLWXWH RI%LRWHFKQRORJ\8QLYHUVLW\RI+HOVLQNL

7KH'1$RILFHVDPSOHVZKLFKKDGEHHQ

¿OWHUHGRQ—PVWHULOHPL[HGFHOOXORVH HVWHU¿OWHUV:KDWPDQDQGVWRUHGDW

ž&ZDVH[WUDFWHGIROORZHGE\FKHFNXSVRQ DJDURVHJHOVZWYRO)UDJPHQWV ESRI6U'1$UHSOLFDWHVVDPSOH ZHUH DPSOL¿HG ZLWK D %LR5DG 7KHUPDO

&\FOHUXVLQJWKHSULPHUVDQG3&5SURWRFRO GHVFULEHGLQ(URQHQLQSUHS7KHVXFFHVV RI3&5ZDVFKHFNHGE\UXQQLQJ—ORIHDFK SURGXFWRQDDJDURVHJHO7KHUHSOLFDWH 3&5SURGXFWVZHUHSRROHGDQGWKHSXUL¿HG SURGXFWV±QJ—OZHUHGLJHVWHG ZLWKWKHWKUHHUHVWULFWLRQHQ]\PHVDWWKH ,QVWLWXWHRI%LRWHFKQRORJ\8QLYHUVLW\RI +HOVLQNL7KHIUDJPHQWVL]HUDQJHYDULHG IURPESDQGESWRESGHSHQGLQJ RQWKHHQ]\PH7KH75)VZHUHLGHQWL¿HG E\WKHLQVLOLFRDQDO\VLVRIFORQHVDQGWKH 75)VREWDLQHGIURPWKHFORQHGLJHVWLRQV VHHEHORZ

7ZR FORQH OLEUDULHV ZHUH FRQVWUXFWHG RI WZR VXUIDFH OD\HU VDPSOHV ± FP RQHKDYLQJDFRPSUHKHQVLYHDQGWKHRWKHU KDYLQJ D GLVWLQFWLYHO\ GLIIHUHQW 75)/3 HOHFWURSKHURJUDP 3$5 DQG 3$589$UHVSHFWLYHO\7KHXQODEHOOHG 3&5 SURGXFWV RI WKH WZR VDPSOHV ZHUH FORQHGZLWKD4LDTHQ3&5FORQLQJNLWDQG VHTXHQFHGZLWKDQ$%,;/FDSLOODU\

VHTXHQFHUE\XVLQJSULPHUVS'DQGS) (GZDUGVHWDO$OWRJHWKHUFORQHV RXWRIZHUHVXFFHVVIXOO\VHTXHQFHG EXWDIWHUWKHDVVHPEOLQJRIWKHFRQVHQVXV VHTXHQFHVZLWKWKH*DSSURJUDP6WDGHQ DQGWKHVXEVHTXHQWFKLPHUDFKHFN

(25)

ZLWK%HOOHURSKRQ+XEHUHWDODQ DGGLWLRQDOVHTXHQFHVZHUHGLVFDUGHG7KH UHPDLQLQJVHTXHQFHVZHUHDOLJQHGXVLQJ

&OXVWDO:DQG%LR(GLW+DOO DQGE\XVLQJWKH-XNHV&DQWRU'1$GLVWDQFH DOJRULWKPZKLOHWKHVLPLODULW\EHWZHHQWKH FORQHV ZDV FDOFXODWHG ZLWK 3K\OLS )HOVHQVWHLQ DQG WKH FORQHV ZHUH DVVLJQHG LQWR 278V VHTXHQFH VLPLODULW\ZLWK'27856FKORVV +DQGHOVPDQ%\XVLQJWKHVDPH3&5 SURWRFRODVLQWKH¿UVW3&5RQHFORQHIURP HDFK278ZDVDPSOL¿HGDQGWKHSURGXFWV ZHUHSXUL¿HGDQGGLJHVWHGZLWKWKHWKUHH UHVWULFWLRQHQ]\PHV

7KHFORQHVHTXHQFHVZHUHFODVVL¿HGWRWKH IDPLO\OHYHOZLWKDFRQ¿GHQFHWKUHVKROG LQWKH5LERVRPDO'DWDEDVH3URMHFW5'3 1DʀYH%D\HVLDQU51$&ODVVL¿HU9HUVLRQ 7KHFORVHVWVHTXHQFHWRHYHU\FORQH ZDVFKHFNHGZLWK5'36HTPDWFK&ROHHW DOXVLQJQRPHQFODWXUDOWD[RQRP\

ZLWK RQH PDWFK SHU VHTXHQFH NQHDUHVW QHLJKERXUDQGLQFOXGLQJERWKW\SHDQGQRQ W\SHVWUDLQVDQGERWKXQFXOWXUHGDQGLVRODWHG JRRGTXDOLW\VHTXHQFHVRI•ES

6WDWLVWLFV

$OOWKHVWDWLVWLFDODQDO\VHVLQSDSHUV,±,,, ZHUHFDUULHGRXWXVLQJSURFHGXUHVLQ6366 ,QWKHGULIWLFHVWXG\,WKHQRUPDOL]HG GDWDZHLJKWHGLFHFROXPQDYHUDJHVDQG8,:

ZHUH¿UVWJURXSHGEDVHGRQWKHUHVXOWVIURP KLHUDUFKLFDOFOXVWHUDQDO\VLVXVLQJ:DUG¶V FOXVWHULQJPHWKRG:DUG-UDQGWKH VTXDUHG(XFOLGHDQGLVWDQFHPHDVXUHZKLFK LVWKHUHFRPPHQGHGGLVWDQFHPHDVXUHIRU :DUGVPHWKRGVHH(YHULWWHWDO7KHQ EDFNZDUGVWHSZLVHGLVFULPLQDQWDQDO\VLVZDV UXQWRLGHQWLI\WKHPRVWVLJQL¿FDQWVHOHFWLYH YDULDEOHV)WRHQWHUDQGWRUHPRYH

EHWZHHQWKHGLIIHUHQWORFDWLRQVDQGVDPSOH W\SHVLHZDWHU8,:7KHHTXDOLW\RI JURXSFRYDULDQFHPDWULFHVZDVWHVWHGZLWK

%R[¶V0WHVW

,QWKHIDVWLFHVWXG\,,WKHSDUDPHWULF 6WXGHQWVWWHVWDQGRQHZD\$129$ZHUH UXQWRWHVWWKHGLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQVWDWLRQV DQGVDPSOLQJGDWHVLQZDWHUDQGLQWHJUDWHG LFHFROXPQFKODYDOXHV7KHKRPRJHQHLW\

RIYDULDQFHVZDVDVVHVVHGZLWK/HYHQH¶VWHVW ,Q WKH 89$ VWXG\ ,,, WKH VLJQL¿FDQFHRIWKHGLIIHUHQFHVLQFKOD77, 7/,DQG7%1LQHDFKOD\HUEHWZHHQWKHWZR WUHDWPHQWV3$589$3$5ZDVWHVWHGZLWK PXOWLSOHUHJUHVVLRQDQDO\VLV'UDSHU 6PLWK 7KHJOREDOFXPXODWLYHUDGLDWLRQ*5 DWWKHVXUIDFHSUR[\IRU89$UDGLDWLRQ EXONVDOLQLW\VWDQGDUGL]DWLRQIRUVDOLQLW\

GLIIHUHQFHRQHGXPP\YDULDEOHFRGLQJIRU WUHDWPHQWVDQGWKHFURVVSURGXFWWHUPVRI

*5DQGWKHGXPP\YDULDEOHZHUHXVHGDV LQGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHVLQWKHPRGHOVDQG LQVLJQL¿FDQWRQHVZHUHHOLPLQDWHGZLWKWKH EDFNZDUGUHJUHVVLRQWHFKQLTXHSUREDELOLW\

RI)WRUHPRYH

7RGHWHFWWKHGLIIHUHQFHVLQWKHEDFWHULDO FRPPXQLWLHV EHWZHHQ WKH XQWUHDWHG DQG WUHDWHGLFH3$53$589$LQ,9 DSULQFLSDOFRRUGLQDWHDQDO\VLV3&2XVLQJ

%UD\&XUWLVGLVVLPLODULW\DVWKHGLVWDQFH PHDVXUHZDVSHUIRUPHGRQWKHIRXUWKURRW WUDQVIRUPHG75)VZLWKWKH3&2SURJUDP

$QGHUVRQ $V WKH GLJHVWHG 3&5 SURGXFWVDOVRLQFOXGHGFKORURSODVW'1$

WKH75)VFOHDUO\DVVLJQHGWRFKORURSODVWV ZHUH¿UVWH[FOXGHGDIWHUZKLFKWKH3&2 ZDVUXQVHSDUDWHO\IRUWKHWKUHH75)GDWDVHWV UHSUHVHQWLQJWKHWKUHHUHVWULFWLRQHQ]\PHV

(26)

5(68/76$1'',6&866,21

'ULIWLFHDQGIDVWLFHFRPPXQLWLHV LQWKH%RWKQLDQ%D\,,,

,FHVWUXFWXUHSK\VLFDOSURFHVVHVDQG WKHLUVLJQL¿FDQFHIRULFHELRWD

7KHPHWHRURORJLFDOFRQGLWLRQVDWWKHWLPH RILFHIRUPDWLRQPD\EHWUDFHGEDFNE\

GHWHUPLQLQJWKHLFHVWUXFWXUHZKLFKLQWXUQ PD\KHOSLQH[SODLQLQJWKHDQRPDOLHVLQ LFHFRPPXQLWLHV,QSDSHU,WKHVWDWLRQV ZHUHFODVVL¿HGLQWRIRXUJURXSVEDVHGRQ WKHLFHWKLFNQHVVQHZO\IRUPHGLFH6W SDQFDNHLFH3&,\RXQJLFH6W DQGWKLFNLFH6W$OJDOELRPDVV JHQHUDOO\LQFUHDVHGZLWKLFHWKLFNQHVVEXW GHVSLWHWKHDSSUR[LPDWHO\HTXDOLFHWKLFNQHVV DWGULIWLFHVWDWLRQVDQGWKHLQWHJUDWHG DOJDOELRPDVVDWVWDWLRQZDVWLPHV KLJKHUWKDQDWVWDWLRQ7KHUHDVRQVIRUWKH DEQRUPDOLW\RIVWDWLRQPLJKWKDYHSDUWO\

ODLQZLWKLQWKHWXUEXOHQWFRQGLWLRQVDWWKH WLPHRILFHJURZWKZKLFKDSSHDUHGDVDQ DW\SLFDOLFHVWUXFWXUHZLWKLUUHJXODUFU\VWDO ERXQGDULHVDQGWKHSUHVHQFHRIWUDQVLWLRQDO LFH(LFNHQ /DQJHDVRSSRVHGWR WKHORQJFROXPQDUFU\VWDOVZLWKZHOOGH¿QHG ERXQGDULHVDWVWDWLRQZKLFKSRLQWHGWR FDOPJURZWKFRQGLWLRQV0RVWLPSRUWDQWO\

WKHDYHUDJHEULQHYROXPHVGLIIHUHGQRWDEO\

6WDQG6WUHVSHFWLYHO\

DQGDVPDOOHUKDELWDEOHVSDFHPD\EHRQHRI WKHH[SODQDWLRQVIRUWKHORZELRPDVVPJ

&PDQGÀDJHOODWHGRPLQDQFHDW VWDWLRQ7KHHIIHFWRISK\VLFDOFRQVWUDLQWV ZDVDOVRGHWHFWDEOHLQWKHIDVWLFH,,FORVHWR WKHULYHUPRXWK6WZKHUHWKHERWWRPPRVW OD\HUZDVSDUWO\IRUPHGRIQHDUO\IUHVKSOXPH ZDWHUVLPLODUO\WRWKHVWXGLHVRI/HJHQGUH HWDO*UDQVNRJHWDOEDQG .DDUWRNDOOLRHWDO7KLVVKRZHGDV

DVWHHSGHFUHDVLQJYHUWLFDOJUDGLHQWLQWKH EULQHYROXPHIURPLQWKHVXUIDFHWR LQWKHERWWRPLFH7KLVFRLQFLGHGZLWK DGHFUHDVHLQWKHLFHDOJDOELRPDVVIURPWR

—J&ODQGDQLQFUHDVHLQWKHSURSRUWLRQ RIÀDJHOODWHVLQWKHDOJDOELRPDVVIURP WR7KHIRUPDWLRQRIPHWHRULFLFHLVFRPPRQ LQWKH%DOWLF6HDDQGLWVSUHVHQFHFDQEH GHWHFWHGZLWKį2DQDO\VLV-HIIULHVHWDO

*UDQVNRJHWDOD8XVLNLYLHWDO

$URXJKDSSUR[LPDWLRQRIWKHRULJLQ FDQDOVRHDVLO\EHGHWHUPLQHGE\PHDVXULQJ WKHEXONVDOLQLW\RIWKHJUDQXODULFHOD\HU VQRZLFHZRXOGVKRZDVDKLJKHUVDOLQLW\

ZKHUHDVVXSHULPSRVHGLFHZRXOGIRUPD IUHVKHUOD\HU,QWKH%RWKQLDQ%D\ÀRRGLQJ LVIUHTXHQWGXHWRWKHKHDY\VQRZFRYHU DQGVQRZLFHFDQFRPSULVHXSWRRI WKH WRWDO LFH WKLFNQHVV 6HLQl 3HOWROD /HSSlUDQWD 0\UEHUJ,QWKH SURFHVVQXWULHQWVIURPVQRZDQGXQGHULFH ZDWHUEHFRPHLQFRUSRUDWHGLQWRWKHIRUPHG VQRZLFHDQGHOHYDWHGFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRI QXWULHQWVHVSHFLDOO\QLWURJHQFDQJHQHUDOO\

EHGHWHFWHGIURPWKHVXUIDFHLFH6QRZLFH IRUPDWLRQZDVGHWHFWHGLQERWKGULIWLFH6W DQGIDVWLFH6WZKHUHQLWUDWHDQG DPPRQLXPFRQFHQWUDWLRQVZHUHPDQLIROG FRPSDUHGWRWKHOD\HUVEHORZDQGWRWKH RWKHULFHFROXPQV,,,7KHVLJQL¿FDQFHRI VQRZLFHIRUPDWLRQIRUWKHELRWDLQWHUPVRI WKHLQFUHDVHLQKDELWDEOHVSDFHLVHPSKDVL]HG LQ%DOWLF6HDZKHUHWKHORZVDOLQLW\VHWV PRUHVWULFWVL]HOLPLWVIRURUJDQLVPVWKDQ LQWKHSRODUUHJLRQV.UHPEVHWDO .DDUWRNDOOLR:HUQHU $XHO

&RPELQHGZLWKKLJKHUOLJKWLQWHQVLWLHVDQG QXWULHQW FRQFHQWUDWLRQV WKLV PD\ EH WKH H[SODQDWLRQ IRU WKH DOJDO ELRPDVV SHDNV REVHUYHGLQWKHVXUIDFHOD\HURIWKHWKLFN GULIWLFH6W,DQGRIWKHIDVWLFH VWDWLRQ,,7KHKHDY\VQRZFRYHURIFP DWIDVWLFHVWDWLRQ,,ZDVPRVWOLNHO\WKH

(27)

UHDVRQIRUWKHORZREVHUYHGDOJDOELRPDVV GHVSLWHWKHHOHYDWHGQXWULHQWFRQFHQWUDWLRQV DQGEULQHYROXPH

$IWHULFHIRUPDWLRQGULIWLFHLVVXEMHFWHG WRGHIRUPDWLRQSURFHVVHVZKLFKDUHUHÀHFWHG LQ WKH SK\VLFDO FKHPLFDO DQG ELRORJLFDO SURSHUWLHVRIWKHLFH7KHG\QDPLFJURZWK RILFHE\UDIWLQJDQGULGJLQJLVW\SLFDOIRUWKH

%RWKQLDQ%D\DUHD2PVWHGW*UDQVNRJ HWDOE

7KHUDIWLQJRILFHÀRHVPXOWLSOLHVWKHLFH WKLFNQHVVDQGSODFHVWKHVXUIDFHFRPPXQLW\

RIWKHXQGHUO\LQJLFHÀRHLQWKHPLGGOHRIWKH QHZLFHFROXPQ5DIWLQJFDQEHGHWHFWHGDV LQWHUQDOVQRZLFHOD\HUVEXWDOVRDVLQWHUQDO SHDNVLQFKORURSK\OODFRQFHQWUDWLRQV,7KH FKORURSK\OODLQWKHVHSHDNVPD\RULJLQDWH IURPWKHERWWRPPRVWOD\HURIWKHRYHUOD\LQJ LFHÀRHRUIURPWKHWRSPRVWOD\HURIWKH XQGHUO\LQJLFHFROXPQ7KHGULIWLFHÀRHV PD\DOVRÀLSDURXQGZKHQWKH\DUHSUHVVXUHG DJDLQVWHDFKRWKHU,FHVWUXFWXUHDQDO\VLV UHYHDOHGWKDWWKHUDIWHGLFHFROXPQDWVWDWLRQ ,FRQVLVWHGRIDQLQYHUWHGXSSHULFHÀRH ZKLFKKDGIUR]HQWRJHWKHUZLWKWKHXQGHUO\LQJ LFHÀRH7KLVZDVHYLGHQFHGE\DFP WKLFNLQWHUQDOVQRZLFHOD\HUDQGVXSSRUWHG E\FRLQFLGLQJSHDNVRIFKORURSK\OODDQG DOJDOELRPDVV7KHFRQVHTXHQFHIRUWKHLFH ELRWDLVWKHGLVSODFHPHQWRIWKHRULJLQDOWRS DQGERWWRPFRPPXQLWLHVWRGLIIHUHQWOLJKW HQYLURQPHQWVEXWEDVHGRQWKHUHVXOWVLQ SDSHU,LWLVLPSRVVLEOHWRGHWHUPLQHZKHWKHU WKHFRPPXQLW\VWUXFWXUHVWDUWHGWRFKDQJH DFFRUGLQJ WR LWV QHZ ORFDWLRQ LQ WKH LFH FROXPQRUZKHWKHUWKHH[LVWLQJFRPPXQLW\

VLPSO\DGDSWHGWRWKHQHZFRQGLWLRQV

&RPSDULVRQRIWKHGULIWDQGIDVWLFH FRPPXQLWLHV

7KHGULIWDQGIDVWLFHVWDWLRQVVKRZHGKLJK YDULDQFHLQPHDVXUHGYDULDEOHVDQGQRFOHDU

FXWFKDUDFWHULVDWLRQVFRXOGEHSHUIRUPHG ZLWKRXWPXOWLYDULDWHDQDO\VLV7KXVWKHGDWD SUHVHQWHGLQSDSHUV,DQG,,ZHUH¿UVWJURXSHG LQKLHUDUFKLFDOFOXVWHUDQDO\VLVLQWKHVDPH PDQQHUDVLQSDSHU,E\XVLQJWKLFNQHVV ZHLJKWHGLFHFROXPQDYHUDJHVDIWHUZKLFK GLVFULPLQDQWDQDO\VLVZDVSHUIRUPHGVHH 6WDWLVWLFV IRU GHWDLOV 7KH PLVVLQJ 12YDOXHDWVWDWLRQZDVUHSODFHGZLWK WKHPLQLPXPDQGPD[LPXP12YDOXHV PHDVXUHGIURPRWKHUWKLFNGULIWLFHVDPSOHV VHHSDSHU,IRUGHWDLOV

7KHGDWDJURXSHGLQWRIRXUFOXVWHUVLQ KLHUDUFKLFDOFOXVWHUDQDO\VLVVHSDUDWHGE\

SKRVSKDWH 32 VLOLFDWH 6L2 DQG WKH ELRPDVVHVRISURWR]RDDQGGLDWRPV7DEOH

*URXSVDQGZKLFKLQFOXGHGDOOWKH LFHVDPSOHVDQGPRVWRIWKH8,:VDPSOHV GLIIHUHGPRVWO\LQGLDWRPELRPDVVDQGVLOLFDWH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ*URXSFRQVLVWHGRIDOOWKH GULIWDQGIDVWLFHVWDWLRQVWKDWZHUHGLDWRP GRPLQDWHGZKLOHDOOWKH8,:VDPSOHVIURP WKHGULIWLFHVWDWLRQVWRJHWKHUZLWKQHZO\

IRUPHGLFHDQGWKHGHYLDQW\RXQJLFHDW VWDWLRQFKDUDFWHULVHGE\ORZELRPDVVHV DQGKLJKVLOLFDWHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVIHOOLQWR JURXS$OVRWKHIDVWLFHVWDWLRQVDQG LFHDQGZDWHULQERWK)HEUXDU\DQG0DUFK EHORQJHGWRWKLVJURXS7DEOH7KXVJURXS UHSUHVHQWHGLFHFRPPXQLWLHVDWHDUOLHUVWDJH RIGHYHORSPHQWZLWKORZELRPDVVFRQVLVWLQJ PRVWO\RIÀDJHOODWHVEHDULQJVLPLODULWLHVWR XQGHULFHZDWHUZKHUHDVWKHJURXSFRXOG EH FKDUDFWHULVHG PRUH DV WKH DGYDQFHG VWDJHRIVHDVRQDOVHDLFHGHYHORSPHQW7KH VLPLODULW\RIQHZO\IRUPHGLFHZLWK8,:

DQGWKHVHSDUDWLRQLQWRGLIIHUHQWFOXVWHUV ZLWKSDQFDNHLFHJLYHVDVWURQJLQGLFDWLRQ WKDWLFHKDELWDWVHOHFWVIRURUJDQLVPVHJ GLDWRPVWKDWDUHDEOHWREHQH¿WIURPWKH PRUHVWDEOHKLJKO\FRQFHQWUDWHGKDELWDWDQG WKLVVHOHFWLRQSURFHVVVWDUWVLPPHGLDWHO\DIWHU LFHIRUPDWLRQ,$FWLYHVFDYHQJLQJ$FNOH\

6XOOLYDQ*UDGLQJHU ,NlYDONR

Viittaukset

LIITTYVÄT TIEDOSTOT

Key words: sea ice thermodynamics, air-ice interaction, surface heat balance, penetrating solar radiation, warm air advection, numerical model, numerical resolution, Bohai Sea,

Leppäranta, Automated Sea Ice Classification over the Baltic Sea Using Multiparametric Features of TanDEM-X InSAR Images, In Proceedings of IEEE International Geoscience and

1.6 Role of bacteria in ice food webs Sea-ice bacteria are the key organisms with regard to diversity and biomass and consequently play multiple roles in sea-ice food webs.

The Baltic Sea is a large brackish water ecosystem, where the saline water of the Atlantic Ocean mixes with the fresh water from 250 rivers; it can also be divided into

development of tools for a thematic eutrophication assessment for two Baltic Sea sub-regions, the Gulf of Finland and the Bothnian Bay. - Meri - Report Series of the Finnish

In the first half of May, fresh fallout nuclides were already observed in water samples taken from a depth of 100 m in the southern Baltic Proper and in mid-June

We analyze EMHI (Estonian Meteorological and Hydrological Institute) ice charts and utilize the Helsinki multi-category sea-ice model in order to study the appearance of

The measurements in 1978 and 1979 showed that nitrogen fixation was negligible in the Bothnian Bay and that the level of nitrogen fixation was markedly lower (1/10) in the central