THE SCENARIOS

This section provide the scenarios under which the energy transition in the energy mix of Ghana is expected to follow in changing scenarios from 2015 - 2030. There are three scenarios, the baseline scenario based on current data and inbuilt data in LEAP, the ten percent (10%) Government of Ghana’s renewable energy target in the electricity generation mix by 2020 and the final scenario of more than thirty percent (30%) in the energy mix by 2030.

5.1.1 The Baseline scenario (2015)

To make future projections of energy demand, LEAP’s base year is 2010. In this work however, 2015 is the base year, where data is not available, the latest year for which data is available is used. Energy demand is projected from 2015 to 2030 based on available data. The demand sectors considered in this research are household, agriculture, commerce and industry. The energy demand for the agriculture, commerce and industry are usually based on the economic value added or the outputs based on produce. In this research, apart from household demand, all other demands are based on the economic value added, i.e. the share of GDP held by the sectors.

The residential sector is divided into urban households and rural households, and urban and rural further divided into connected to the grid and not connected to the grid. The Ghana Statistical Service defined urban areas as a location with 5000 or more people while rural areas is a location of less than 5000 people. The energy consumption by the households differ significantly based on the location. For example, LPG has a higher consumption percentage in the urban households than the rural households, where firewood consumption is higher in the rural areas than urban households. Assumptions have been made into the model based on the estimates and projections made in the population growth and consumption shifts.

In the transformation branch of the model, technologies for electricity production is computed based on the 2015 power generation data provided by the Ghana Energy Commission.

Transmission and distribution branch of electricity and natural gas is also contained in the

transformation branch. There is a reserve margin of 15% in the system, a percentage needed to prevent light out or dumsor as it is locally called.

5.1.2 The Ten Percent Scenario (2015- 2020)

The ten percent (10%) renewable energy scenario examines how the energy mix of Ghana will change over time until 2020 based on the government’s renewable energy target in the electricity generation mix. Energy demand estimates are based on projections for population growth and per capita income growth of 2.3% and 3.1% respectively.

Based on the 2010 population and housing census, Ghana has estimated 5.5 million households, with the 2.3% population growth rate, households in Ghana will reach more than 6 million by 2020. Ghana in the baseline scenario has urban population of 54%, which is expected to reach 58% by 2020. Because urban areas consume more energy than the rural areas, an increase in urban population has the potential to increase the demand for energy services such electricity, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), charcoal and firewood.

Electricity production in the baseline scenario was derived from the 2016 Energy Demand and Supply Outlook for Ghana prepared by the Energy Commission. The Outlook further provided expected additional electricity generations to be added to the stock of power plants in 2016, this scenario assumes that all expected power generation sources in 2016 have been added to meet the demand and therefore meet the renewable energy target. The total hydroelectricity capacity installed in the baseline scenario is 1550 MW; however, maximum capacity available has an average of 80% due to the water level in the reservoirs.

Because of the changing rainfall pattern, this scenario assumes availability factor of 70% in 2020 for the hydroelectricity plants. Thermal power plants fired by natural gas in the baseline scenario totaled 1591MW with maximum availability of 70%, which is mainly from the Independent Power Producers (IPPs). This scenario assumes 60% maximum availability by 2020 due to the erratic supply of gas from the West African Gas Pipeline Company (WAGPCo) and the Ghana Gas Company, the main gas suppliers for the power plants in Ghana. In reality, some thermal plants that run on dual fuel, (LCO or Natural Gas) but the scenario assumes only natural gas as the fuel source due to cost considerations and lack of information on when the plant may run on natural gas or light crude oil.

Solar energy’s contribution in the baseline scenario out of the total installed capacity was less than 1%, that was the only renewable grid electricity available and an additional 20MW is expected to be available in this scenario. The Energy Commission’s 2016 Outlook shows that a permit to build more than 2000MW ground mounted solar power plants has been granted, based on that permit; this scenario assumed an additional capacity of 1000MW could be available in 2020. Although permits have been granted to build many other power plants that are renewable, solar is the only one with a relatively short construction time due to the processes that others must go through. Government has given approval for a 700MW super critical bituminous coal power plant scheduled to be available by 2020.

5.1.3 The Final Scenario (2020 – 2030)

In the final scenario, Ghana’s households will be more than 7.5 million based on the yearly population growth and the energy demand is expected to grow commensurate with the growth in the population. The fuel demand is expected to grow, as LPG and charcoal consumption are expected to increase in share as firewood declines. Energy intensity of the appliances such as refrigerator, fan, bulbs and television are expected to reduce due to government policies to replace old refrigerators and high intensity bulbs with compact fluorescent bulbs. Urban population is to reach 65% of the population by 2030 in this scenario.

In the transformation branch, existing hydro plants are to have 65% maximum availability while new mini hydro dams are to be constructed with total capacity of 500 MW and 55%

Availability. Wind power, additional solar, wave power plant, biomass fired plant and municipal solid waste fired power plants are assumed in this scenario to meet the energy demand of the system.

In this scenario, urban households are assumed to have 100% access to electricity while the share of fuel provided by charcoal, LPG and firewood are 35%, 30% and 35% respectively.

Rural Electrification is assumed to increase from the current 41% to 60% by 2030, while charcoal, LPG and firewood provides 40%, 20% and 40% of rural fuels respectively. Kerosene is the main fuel for lighting in areas without access to electricity