The overall contribution of this research is to enable policy and decision makers to build their arguments on solid grounds with quantitative results. This kind of energy security analysis can provide a profound understanding with clear justification of the use of information from inside the energy system. This evaluation then provides a path of how to enhance energy security. This can then be mirrored to adopted policies. However, to achieve this important contribution in the scientific community, many smaller contributions are in need. The contributions of this research are distributed throughout Publications I-IV; all smaller contributions are listed below with references to where their details can be found:
1. The novel literature review procedure where energy security definitions were tracked along with their history is a major contribution to scientific knowledge.
Prior literature lacked thorough and standardized methods in approaching energy security definition tracking. This research contributes by providing a set of criteria for which definitions are to be included based on what definitions were used by other researchers and scholars since 1970.(Publication I)
2. Showing the frequency of which energy security was discussed and defined in the research field with most of the discussion found in recent publications is the second contribution. Such frequency analysis helps the scientific community to form a better understanding of the influence of recent international crises on the energy system.(Publication I)
3. Furthermore, this research provides a generic definition of energy security that can be applied in future research about energy security. The novelty of this definition lies in its ability to be applied on all levels of energy systems, both nationally and internationally. Such a definition is necessary as previous researches did not agree on a specific method of how to address energy security.
(Publication I)
4. In addition, this research shows the approach of previous literature on what dimensions to include while analysing energy security. This was done through a detailed literature review showing the diversity of what dimensions researchers previously included in their studies which contributes to the knowledge that conclusions are determined by the perspectives of scholars. Showing such diversity influences the discussion of motives and approaches of how to address energy security.(Publication I)
1.5 Scientific contribution of this research 23 5. Moreover, the novelty of this research lies in the inclusion of all dimensions that were distributed in previous literature as no research addressed all these dimensions together. In total this research counted 15 dimensions that are related to energy security. These 15 dimensions are collected from previously separated literature with this research combining and consolidating all energy security dimensions into one analytical approach.(Publication I)
6. The next contribution is building a comprehensive framework for analysing energy security. In order to build this framework, all dimensions were justified, in addition, all parameters inside each dimension were introduced and discussed in detail. Such a transparent and detailed framework for energy security analysis has no precedent. Furthermore, building this framework sets an example of the methodological procedure for how to build frameworks for other matters.
(Publication I)
7. This research does not stop its contribution only to providing a detailed framework for analysing energy security, rather, it extends to validating and testing this framework. This contribution was done by applying the energy security analysis framework on energy storage technologies as a representation of one of the sub-systems within the energy system. This contribution shows the validity of the framework and its applicability on all parts of the energy system.(Publication II) 8. Furthermore, this contribution provides recommendations for decisions makers for what and how energy storage technologies can affect energy security. Such a contribution is highly needed for energy systems’ design and construction.
(Publication II)
9. Moving on with the framework, this research proves the feasibility of this energy security analysis framework through the application on future energy systems.
After the framework was tested for a sub-system, it was applied at the country/national level (Jordan) through the use of the whole energy system.
Application of this energy security framework on a future energy scenario in Jordan is an example of how this framework can be applied to any country in the world.(Publication III)
10. Another novelty when applying the energy security analysis framework on a future energy scenario for the case of Jordan is the proposal of a 100% renewable energy Best Policy Scenario. Such a scenario contributes to the discussion of the feasibility of a 100% renewable power system for future planning, together with benefits on enhancing energy security.(Publication III)
11. The scenario is novel in itself by combining all sectors (power, heat, transport and desalination) with high temporal and spatial resolution.(Publication III)
12. Once the framework was prepared, validated and tested, the theoretical qualitative analysis was transposed into a more objective quantitative analysis using numerical values. Each of the parameters were presented with a suitable numerical indicator or a set of indicators. The novel choice of these indicators is one of the very important contributions made by this research to the scientific community.
(Publication IV)
13. Another novel contribution of this research is the criteria set to be used for choosing indicators. This criteria set is not well established in previous research or, at least, with limited transparency of how these indicators were chosen.
(Publication IV). The following criteria are chosen in this research for numerical indicators:
a. Indicator values are available for all countries in the world or at least the majority;
b. Data used from trusted sources;
c. Indicator values can be in absolute or relative numbers;
d. Close proxy to the parameters;
e. Availability for current and future scenarios;
f. Normalization should be possible for the energy security analysis;
g. Accounting for sustainability (Child et al., 2018) as much as possible.
14. Furthermore, this research shows a huge contribution for an open data approach through total transparency. The detailed methods of how each indicator is linked to its correspondent parameter and to energy security are presented in a detailed manner to fully track all established relationships between dimensions, parameters and indicators of energy security.(Publication IV)
15. In addition to the novelty of the choice of proxy indicators to measure each parameter, this research evaluates each dimension separately on a global level.
This research presents the achievement of all countries in the world in each of the dimensions, both numerically and by world maps.(Publication IV)
16. The crown contribution of this research is the evaluation of energy security for all countries in the world through a comprehensive index. This energy security evaluation, with all 15 dimensions quantitatively presented, was a missing gap in previous research. Energy security results for all countries are presented quantitatively and in a world map.(Publication IV)
17. The last contribution of this research lies in its ability to provide policy recommendations of what supportive policies are, in order to enhance energy security. Decision makers can spot out why energy security is at a certain level and what is needed in order to enhance energy. These recommendations contribute to policies comparisons from different countries. As on a global map, policies differ and thus having a visualized view of which country achieves higher energy
1.6 Summary of dissertation structure 25