7.1 Scenario for RES development for 2013-2020 timeline
In order to increase the development of RE, a national strategy for Kazakhstan was created for the timeline of 2013-2020. Table 7 below shows an action plan in RES development for 2013-2020 and Figure 12 depicts a visualisation of the same action plan. It can be concluded that most of the projects are being implemented in small hydro, wind and solar power plants, with bio-power plants being the least.
Table 7. An action plan for the development of renewable energy in Kazakhstan for 2013-2020 (Karatayev & Hall, 2016)
Figure 12. The visualization of an action plan for the development of renewable energy in Kazakhstan for 2013-2020 (Kashkinbekov 2017)
7.2 Brief descriptions of the scenarios
On the other hand, the Government of Kazakhstan created three integrated scenarios for power sector development in the 2013 “National Concept for Transition to a Green Economy up to 2050”.
Base-case scenario: called as “Business as usual” electricity demand, gasification of Astana and Karaganda regions, current low gas prices, 30% alternative (20%) and renewable (10%) energy share in generation in 2050.
Green scenario – expensive gas: “Green” electricity demand, gasification of Astana and Karaganda regions, high gas prices, 50% alternative and renewable energy share in generation in 2050.
Green scenario – cheap gas: “Green” electricity demand, gasification of Astana, Karaganda, Pavlodar and Eastern regions, cheap gas prices, 50% alternative and renewable energy share in generation in 2050. (MERK 2013: 30-33)
Figures 13 and 14 (page 33) show scenarios in electricity production from different sources of energy, namely: RES and alternative sources, coal, gas, nuclear. The renewable energy field will be developed mainly through wind and solar power plants with help of:
• Achieving 3 percent share of wind and solar power stations in the total capacity of electricity generation by 2020.
• Achieving 10 percent share of RES in the total capacity of electricity generation by 2030.
• Full-scale RES implementation after RES becomes cost competitive with the prices of traditional energy sources and this shift is expected between 2020 and 2030.
• Achieving a 50 percent share of alternative and RES (including wind, solar, hydro and nuclear plants) in the total capacity of electricity generation by 2050.
(MERK 2013: 36)
According to the Figures 13 and 14 (next page) the key assumptions in each of the scenarios are:
1) The range of electricity demand is from 136 TWh to 145 TWh in 2030, and from 172 TWh to 188 TWh in 2050.
2) The availability of gas will be greater, leading to a lower price of gas in power generation
3) Extending the lifetime of existing coal, gas and hydro capacity with maximum possibility
4) Renewable energy installed capacity in 2030: wind accounting to 4.6 GW and 0.5 GW for solar
5) The total nuclear capacity installed is estimated to be 1.5 GW by 2030 and 2.0 GW by 2050. Nuclear power plants will be developed according to the national plan
6) In order to improve the quality of local air, the major cities will be gasified by a transition from coal to gas. (Lekovic 2016)
Figure 13. Power Sector Development Scenarios (MERK 2013)
Figure 14. Share of electricity generation in the scenarios (MERK 2013) (Continue in next page)
7.3 Analysis of the scenarios considering RES
Figure 13 shows the results that should be achieved through each scenario in different energy sectors by 2020, 2030 and 2050. The energy sector section on the table
includes the main important energy fields such as Energy Efficiency, RES, coal and gas generation, which have the specific target indicators in “Green Economy” National Concept of Kazakhstan. The major assumptions in all scenarios are the rapid
development of gas generation in the country and increase of RES share in electricity production. All three scenarios show a plan of switching CHPs to gas in major cities such as Astana and Almaty. On the other hand, in BAU scenario RES share in electricity production plans to be 30% by 2050, whereas in scenarios “Green” (expensive and cheap gas) the share of RES in electricity consumption plans to meet the target indicator of 50%.
Figure 14 depicts the share of the energy resources in electricity generation of
Kazakhstan according to three different scenarios. The energy sector situation in 2012 shows that around 78% of electricity production was out of coal natural resource, 12%
gas power plants, 10% hydro power stations. After a careful analysis, the author concludes that third scenario “Green” (cheap gas) show results that would enable Kazakhstan to achieve its targets in energy sector. Since “Green” (cheap gas) significantly reduces the energy production out of harmful natural resources and instead expands the share of more environmentally friendly and renewable energy sources in electricity production by 2030 and 2050. As it can be seen, from the section of “Green” (cheap gas) scenario in 2030 the share of coal reduces until 44%, gas increases until 36%, nuclear power plant increases to 8% and total share of electricity from RES increases to 21.4%. These results in third scenario by 2030 is similar
compared to other two scenarios with a certain degree of better results.
More importantly, the cheap gas scenario eventually should enable Kazakhstan to build more sustainable and strong developed energy sector. Because the results by 2050 in cheap scenario should lead to 14% share of coal, 32% share of gas, 7% share of nuclear power plant, and 47% share of renewable energy sources in electricity
production of Kazakhstan. These results are what the government of Kazakhstan, and specifically the Ministry of Energy is seeking for, as it helps to reach the main energy related target indicators within the National Concept of Kazakhstan in transition to
“Green Economy”. Thus, the author concludes that “Green” (cheap gas) scenario is a possible and best road map for Kazakhstan to implement, to achieve the targets set in Energy Sector, in this case, specifically in renewable energy sources (RES) field by strategic 2020, 2030 & 2050 years.
Table 8 below was published by the Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan, which shows the results of 2017 in regard to the share of RES in electricity production in each area.
Table 8. RES in electricity production for 2017 (EnergoGovKZ 2018)
Indicators Measurements 2017 Results
Total power generated MWt 342,3
Wind power stations MWt 112,4
Small hydro power stations MWt 170,8
Solar power stations MWt
58,8
Bio power stations MWt 0,3
Total electricity generated kWh (million) 1102,4
Wind power stations kWh (million) 339
Small hydro power stations kWh (million) 649,1 Solar power stations kWh (million) 114,3
Bio power stations kWh (million) 0,06
The RE share of produced electricity out of the total
electricity produced % 1,08
Conclusion: the use of Renewable Energy in electricity production has increased by 15,8% in 2017 compared to 2016.