6. SANITATION IN THE FUTURE
6.1 D ELPHI SURVEY ON ECOSAN
6.1.7 Legislation
Several claims concentrated on legislation in both the first and second round.
Also the comments in previous sections showed that legislation is one of the key issues in improving the status of ecological sanitation, dry toilets and fertiliser use of urine and compost.
In the first round, the claim was: “Legislation is being amended to include ecological sanitation and its practices (fertiliser use, dry toilets)” (Figure 41). This was seen as both desirable and likely.
Figure 41: Legislation will also cover ecological sanitation and its practices (fertiliser use of humanure, dry toilets): 1st round.
“It is likely that fertiliser legislation will change and develop on the EU level when fertiliser legislation renewal moves onwards. At this point, a clear set of criteria and sufficient research data must be had for best practices, storage and methods of usage.”
“When making corrections there is always a possibility that things go even more wrong. E.g. the fertiliser act enables the use of human manure but it is too heavy for small-scale operators. The most important factor would be to make it possible for small-scale production, including also, e.g. horse manure producers.”
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Legislation will also covers ecological sanitation and its practices (fertiliser use of humanure, dry toilets)
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“There has been some development, e.g. in France. The EU and the like ought to be active, but in a sensible way.”
There was also a question on political strategies during the first round. “Finland will have compiled a strategy for diminishing phosphorus resources together with all ministries by 2020” (Figure 42). This was not seen as very likely, but extremely desirable.
Figure 42: Finland will have a sustainable strategy for managing diminishing P resources by 2020:1st round.
“If MTK [The Central Union of Agricultural Producers and Forest Owners] has woken up then a strategy is surely on its way.”
“There is pressure at the EU level; the commission and some
countries have woken up, see e.g.
www.phosphorusplatform.org/espc2013.html”
Most of the respondents agreed that a strategy between ministries would be formulated by the year 2020, with some variation between 2018 and 2025. The most pessimistic views pointed towards 2050 and even 2110.
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Finland will have a sustainable strategy for managing diminishing P resources
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Figure 43: Legislation will also cover ecological sanitation and its practices. Cross reference between occupational groups: 1st round.
Figure 44: Finland will have a sustainable strategy for managing diminishing P resources.
Cross reference between occupational groups: 1st round.
Here, the most notable finding is the general belief in legislation and policy reforms towards more sustainable sanitation practices and nutrient recycling. In terms of legislation, the political decision-makers and representatives of agriculture are the most sceptical group, while in regard to sustainable phosphorus strategy the doubters are in the media and business sectors. Yet, on both accounts, all occupational groups find the development on the legislation and policy level desirable.
The impact of current legislation was tested in the first round claim that the emissions from rural settlement will be reduced as dry toilets become more common (Figure 45). This was not seen particularly likely as dry toilets are still considered a small part of the whole – and the emission source something other than human toilet waste. There is still faith in the power of legislation.
Figure 45: Emissions from rural areas to water bodies will have decreased as dry toilets have become more popular: 1st round.
“Agriculture is still the biggest contributor of emissions, but dry toilets and better treatment of waste water can hopefully reduce emissions, too.”
“Most likely there will be more dry toilets and people will move more to the cities.”
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Emissions from rural areas to water bodies will have decreased as dry toilets have become more popular
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“The emissions will have been reduced due to the act on wastewater treatment in rural areas.”
The first round also discussed the state of urban areas with the claim that a closed cycle of wastewater will be more and more common also in cities (Figure 46). The experts found this somewhat difficult to address, although in general the thought was desirable, but unlikely.
Figure 46: Closed cycle in terms of wastewater will be a reality also in cities: 1st round.
“In terms of wastewater sludge the cycle is functional, but the technologies for recovering nutrients from wastewater have developed slowly, so the costs and other resources do not support this development.”
“Fully closed systems require a great deal of chemicals and energy in order to function, which leads to new problems replacing the old.”
Most of the commentators agreed that a fully closed cycle in wide scale use in urban areas would be too expensive to maintain as operational. There was also doubt that there would be enough motivation to strive for a closed cycle as there is also a relatively well-functioning open cycle available. Most of the experts wanted
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Closed cycle in terms of wastewater will be a reality also in cities
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to concentrate on improving current technologies, whereas some still remained hopeful that economic closed cycles could find their way also to the cities.
6.1.8 Education
The final topic that both the first and second rounds dealt with was education, as it is an important part in moulding the direction of development where Finland is heading. Knowhow and professionals play a key role in developing new technologies and methods, also in sustainable sanitation.
A claim from the first round declared that “Professionals in sustainable sanitation will be trained in Finland in addition to sustainable water management” (Figure 47).
Again, the views of the future were desirable but not very likely. However, some hope remained and the experts did not fully turn this idea down.
Figure 47: Professionals in sustainable sanitation will be trained in Finland in addition to sustainable water management: 1st round.
“If we want to address the future challenges, then we should start this right away and not wait until some fertiliser act has been changed.”
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Professionals in sustainable sanitation will be trained in Finland in addition to sustainable water management
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“Hopefully, education will at least become more extensive and better.”
“This education must concentrate on both domestic needs as well as exports, and hopefully a lot of women will participate.”
“Sustainable water management is a new field of education.
Sanitation professionals will be trained surely more and more.”
It was also claimed that “School gardens and a curriculum on nutrient recycling and food production will be everyday practices in kindergartens and primary schools” (Figure 48). Even though signs of this sort of activity are showing already, the experts did not believe the practice would become wide-scale.
Figure 48: School gardens and discussing nutrient recycling will be part of the kindergarten and primary school curriculum: 1st round.
“There are clear sign of this already – interest is increasing and activities being organised.”
“It would be necessary to include this in the basics of the curriculum; otherwise it will not become a general practice.”
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School gardens and discussing nutrient recycling will be part of the kindergarten and primary school curriculum
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It was also suggested that there would be a professor of sanitation in a Finnish university (Figure 49). This divided the votes rather evenly on the likelihood, while many considered this desirable. It was also noted that there are universities where sanitation is studied, even though no professorship is solely focused on sanitation.
Figure 49: There will be a sanitation professorship in a Finnish university: 1st round.
“In the University of Jyväskylä, sanitation is included as one field, but there is not a professorship focusing only on sanitation.”
“I think this will happen quite soon.”
To continue the theme of education, it was also claimed that “Construction and housing engineers will know dry toilet technology and be able to recommend equipment for households (new or renovation)” (Figure 50). This was not considered very likely at all, but it was a desirable outcome.
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There will be a sanitation professorship in a Finnish university
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Figure 50: Construction engineers will know DT-technology and be able to recommend equipment to house owners: 1st round.
“If the market economy finds a way to make money out of it, then it is likely, but otherwise not!”
“Houses will be sold as packages which include wastewater treatment facility. Dry toilets will be for those who want it (hippies) and those who can’t otherwise have a flush toilet (water supply, permits).”
“This is probably the most difficult attitude change: industry and professionals of certain fields benefit from the current system.”
“This will take time, but when policies are turned around and this becomes a beneficial enterprise, then the professionals will follow.”
The second round claims put together the remarks from the first round. A claim stated that “Sustainable water and wastewater management is a new educational field. Sanitation professionals will be trained more and more” (Figure 51).
Expressed in this way, the experts found it more likely than in the first round.
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Construction engineers will know DT-technology and be able to recommend equipment to house owners
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Figure 51: Sustainable water management is a new field of education. Sanitation professionals will be trained more and more: 2nd round.
“Sanitation education is good to be included in current degree programmes but as a field of its own. What kind of employment would these people find? Does Finland have to educate people to work in developing countries?”
“There are more important problems in the world than the nutrients of piss. With a narrower framework many people can be hired to take care of business.”
Many commented that such education is already available – although not as a separate entity.
Also spurred by the comments of the first round, the experts were challenged in the second round by the claim that “Households will move to closed cycle wastewater systems, which will increase energy demand and maintenance problems compared to old systems” (Figure 52). This somewhat provocative claim made the remaining experts defend closed cycle systems at least on a household level. There were still a few views against fully closed cycles, but most of the experts did not see a problem: according to their comments, energy need and maintenance would not increase.
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Sustainable water management is a new field of education. Sanitation professionals will be trained
more and more.
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Figure 52: Closed cycle systems will become more popular in households, which will increase energy consumption and maintenance issues: 2nd round.
“There is no point moving to closed cycles in Finland because it causes difficulties and risks. Perhaps in some countries where there is lack of water.”
“The trend to conserve energy must be stronger and does not support this. The willingness to pay for maintenance, for anything, is quite small and does not support complex devices.”
In the cross reference figure it can be seen that especially representatives of the agricultural and business groups find an increase in energy demand and maintenance likely (Figure 53).
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Closed cycle systems will become more popular in households, which will increase energy consumption
and maintenance issues
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Figure 53: Closed cycle systems will become more popular in households, increasing the energy consumption and maintenance issues. Cross reference between occupational groups: 1st round.
To address the sanitation crisis in the world, the second round suggested more flush toilets for meeting the need (Figure 54). This was clearly not a desired outcome for the experts, although the likelihood of such happening seemed to be difficult to predict.
Figure 54: The global sanitation need will be solved by constructing more flush toilets: 2nd round.
“Also in the poorest countries the flush toilet is the goal. Currently available alternative models require extra effort and interest in one’s own excreta treatment. People’s hobbies in developing countries are moving to another direction. Easily maintained technology is required in order for the flush toilet not to be the only option.”
“The flush toilet is still considered as a sign of wealth, and changing that attitude globally can be challenging.”
”Hopefully not, at least in countries that have poverty. In big cities the hygiene aspect of sanitation requires a centralized system.”
Finally, the last claim of the first round covered the views on attitudes. Since most of the comments reflected an issue with attitudes, it was interesting to see the
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The global sanitation need will be solved by constructing more flush toilets
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experts’ reaction to the final claim: “Negative attitudes and prejudice are the biggest challenge for implementing closed cycle systems” (Figure 55). It turns out that negative attitudes seemed to be the biggest issue and this was seen as a difficult challenge to tackle.
Figure 55: The biggest challenges for achieving a closed nutrient cycle are negative attitudes and prejudice: 1st round.
“Hopefully, negative attitudes will slowly diminish. This can be done by increasing research, developing legislation, etc.”
“Children can be brought up to consider this matter as a positive thing and the adults’ attitudes will change through them.”
The same question, when cross referenced, indicates that there seems to be a consensus between the groups regarding this matter; the main challenge when discussing nutrient recycling lies in people’s attitudes and prejudices (Figure 56).
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The biggest challenges for achieving a closed nutrient cycle are negative attitudes and prejudice
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Figure 56: The biggest challenges for achieving a closed nutrient cycle are negative attitudes and prejudice. Cross referenced between occupational groups: 1st round.