• Ei tuloksia

In principle there are three criteria according to which one may judge the signi…-cance or goodness of the model. The …rst and the obvious one is the magnitude and the direction of the parameter estimates and whether they are in accordance with underlying theory. The second, also related to the …rst one, is the statistical sig-ni…cance of individual parameter estimates, measured typically by the t-test. The third criteria are the global …t measures.

There are several …t criteria available for the SEM users, although they seem to be closely related to each other. 2 -test compares two models; the saturated, theoretical model, which includes all paths and the hypothesized model we impose.

Since the idea is to …nd an optimal parsimonious presentation on the true structures

in the data, the simplest model that conveys the information in the data would be ideal. A low and statistically insigni…cant 2-value suggests that our model resembles that of the saturated model. However, the 2 -test statistic is a¤ected by several factors, such as the sample and the model sizes, i.e., bigger the model the better the …t. Hence we also report other …t indices, albeit to some extent they su¤er from the same problems as they are derived from 2-tests.20

The normed …t index (NFI) is computed by comparing the 2-value of the null model (i.e. independence model, where the covariances are assumed to be zero in the model) and the hypothesized model, whereby N F I = ( 2null 2model)= 2null. The idea is to test how much better our hypothesized model performs compared with the null model. Conventionally a test value close to 0.95 indicates a good …t. The relative …t index is similar to NFI, but it accounts for the di¤erent decrees of freedom these two models have, whereby RF I = 1 [( 2model=dfmodel)=( 2null=dfnull)]. We also report Bentler’s comparative …t index (CFI), and Tucker-Lewis Index (TLI) which are written as to test the same hypothesis, i.e. they test the null of no latent variable against the alternative of latent variables existing, the former is a¤ected by the sample size as well as non-normality of the data (Bollen, 1990). TLI, in the other hand, has proven to be least a¤ected by the biasing factors (non-normality, small sample size, model complexity etc.).

Lastly to avoid the problems documented with the …t criteria related to 2 -test we report standardized root mean square residual (SRMR). The test re‡ects the closeness of the empirical covariance-variance matrix (S) and the model implied covariance matrix ( ). Comparing these two matrices reveals whether all the con-nections present in the data are presented in the model. The better the model

20AMOS 17 reports long list of …t indices. Since some of them are just new representations of the older …t indices, we report only those that seem to o¤er some new insights to the analysis.

re‡ects the data smaller the SRMR statistics. While there is no rule of thumb for the cut-o¤ value, values smaller than 0.05 are acceptable.

References

[1] Aigner, D.J. and Goldberger, A.S. (1979)Contributions to Economic Analysis, North-Holland Publishing Company

[2] Aigner, D.J., Hsiao, C.,Kapteyn, A. and Wansbeek, T. (1984), "Latent Variable Models in Econometrics" in Z. Griliches and M.D. Intriligator (eds)Handbook of Econometrics vol II, North-Holland, pp. 1323-1393.

[3] Aigner, D., Schneider, F. and Ghosh, D. (1988) "Me and My Shadow: Esti-mating the Size of the U.S. Hidden Economy from Time Series Data", in W.A.

Barnett, E.R. Berndt and H. White (eds.), Dynamic Econometric Modeling, Cambridge University Press, pp. 297-334.

[4] Alm, J. and Torgler, B. (2006) "Culture Di¤erences and Tax Morale in the United States and in Europe," Journal of Economic Psychology 27(2): 224-246.

[5] Allingham, M.G. and Sandmo, A. (1972) "Income Tax Evasion: A Theoretical Analysis," Journal of Public Economics 1: 323-328.

[6] Andrews, D.W.K. (1993) "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica 61: 821-856.

[7] Angrist, J.D., Imbens, G.W. and Rubin, D.B. (1993) "Identi…cation of Causal E¤ects Using Instrumental Variables,"Journal of the American Statistical As-sociation 91(434): 444-455.

[8] Arruñada, B. (2004) "The Economic E¤ects of Christian Moralities," Eco-nomics Working Paper No. 743, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.

[9] Bielby, W.T. and Hauser, R.M. (1977) "Structural Equation Models," Annual Reviews of Sociology 3: 137-161.

[10] Bollen, K.A. (1987) "Total, Direct and Indirect E¤ects in Structural Equation Models,"Sociological Methodology 17: 37-69.

[11] Brekke, K.A, Kvaerndokk, S. and Nyborg, K. (2003) "An Economic Model of Moral Motivation,"Journal of Public Economics 87: 1967-1983.

[12] Breusch, T. (2005a) "The Canadian Underground Economy: An Examination on Giles and Tedds,"Canadian Tax Journal 53( 2): 367-391.

[13] Breusch, T. (2005b) "Estimating the Underground Economy using MIMIC Models," Econometrics WP, The Australian National University, November 2005.

[14] Byrne, B. (2001) Structural Equation Modeling With Amos. Basic Concepts, Applications and Programming, Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.

[15] Dell’Anno R. and Schneider, F. (2008) "A Complex Approach to Estimate The Shadow Economy: The Structural Equation Modelling" in M. Faggini and T.

Lux (eds)Coping with Complexity of Economics, Springer Verlag, pp. 111-130.

[16] Fehr, E. and Gächter, S. (2002) "Altruistic Punishment in Humans," Nature 415: 137-140

[17] Feld, L.P. and Torgler, B. and Dong, B. (2008) "Coming Closer? Tax Morale, Deterrence and Social Learning after German Uni…cation", CREMA Working Paper No. 2008 - 9.

[18] Fox, J. (1980) "E¤ect Analysis in Structural Equation Models," Sociological Methods and Research 9(1): 3-28.

[19] Frank, R. (1987) "If Homo Economicus Could Choose His Utility Function, Would He Want One with a Conscience," The American Economic Review 77(4): 593-604.

[20] Frey, B.S. and Weck-Hanneman, H. (1984) "The Hidden Economy as an ’Un-observed’Variable," European Economic Review 26: 33–53.

[21] Giles, D.E.A. and Tedds, L.M. (2002) "Taxes and the Canadian Underground Economy," Canadian Tax Paper no. 106, Canadian Tax Foundation 2002.

[22] Goldberger, A.S. (1972) "Structural Equation Methods in the Social Sciences,"

Econometrica 40(6): 979-1001.

[23] Gordon, J.P.F. (1989) "Individual Morality and Reputation Costs as Deter-rants to Tax Evasion," European Economic Review 33: 797-805.

[24] Guiso, L., Sapienza, P. and Zingales, L. (2003) "People’s Opium? Religion and Economic Attitudes," Journal of Monetary Economics 50: 225-282.

[25] Haavelmo, T. (1943) "The Statistical Implications of a System of Simultaneous Equations,"Econometrica 11(1): 1-12.

[26] Hausman D.M. and McPherson, M.S. (1993) "Taking Ethics Seriously: Eco-nomics and Contemporary Moral Philosophy,"Journal of Economic Literature 31(2): 671-731.

[27] Hill, R. (2002) "The Underground Economy in Canada: Boom or Bust?" Cana-dian Tax Journal 50(5): 1641-1654.

[28] Iannaccone, L.R. (1998) "Introduction to the Economics of Religion,"Journal of Economic Literature 36: 1465-1495.

[29] Im, K.S. and Pesaran, M.H. and Shin, Y. (2003) "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogenous Panels," Journal of Econometrics 115: 53–74.

[30] Intriligator, M.D, Bodkin, R.G. and Hsiao, C. (1996) Econometric Models, Techiques, and Applications, Second Edition, Prentice-Hall.

[31] Jöreskog, K.G. and Goldberger, A.S. (1975) "Estimating of a Model with Mul-tiple Indicators and MulMul-tiple Causes of a Single Latent Variable," Journal of American Statistical Association 70(351): 631-639.

[32] Katungi, D. and Neale, E. and Barbour, A. (2006): People in low-paid informal work ’Need not greed’, Community Links.

[33] Katz, M.L. and Shapiro, C. (1985) "Network Externalities, Competition, and Compatibility,"American Economic Review 75(3): 424-440.

[34] Kirchgässner, G. (1999) "Schattenwirtschaft und Moral: Anmerkungen aus Ökonomischer Perspektive". In S. Lamnek (eds.) Der Sozialstaat Zwischen

"markt" und "hedonismus"?, Westdeutscher Verlag, pp. 425-445.

[35] Konijn, H.S. (1962) "Identi…cation and Estimation in a Simultaneous Equa-tions Model with Errors in the Variables", Econometrica 30(1): 79-87.

[36] Levin, A., Lin, C.-F. and Chu, C.-S. (2002) "Unit Root Tests in Panel Data:

Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties", Journal of Econometrics 108(1):

1-24.

[37] Lyssiotou, P., Pashardes, P. and Stengos, T. (2004) "Estimates of the Black Economy Based on Consumer Demand Approaches", The Economic Journal 114:622-640.

[38] Mussa, M. and Rosen, S. (1978) "Monopoly and Product Quality,"Journal of Economic Theory 18: 301-317.

[39] Myles, G.D. and Naylor, R.A. (1996) "A Model of Tax Evasion with Group Conformity and Social Customs,"European Journal of Political Economy 12:

49-66.

[40] Orvaska, M. and Hudson, J. (2002) "Tax Evasion, Civic Duty and the Law Abiding Citizen," European Journal of Political Economy 19: 83-102.

[41] Pilkington, K. (2007) "Taxation and Ethical Issues", in C. Gowthorpe and J.

Blake (eds.),Ethical Issues in Accounting, Routledge, pp. 79-94.

[42] Reckers, P. and Sanders, D. and Roark, S. (1994) "The In‡uence of Ethical Attitudes on Taxpayer Compliance,"National Tax Journal 47(4):825-36.

[43] Rothenberg, T.J. and Leenders, C.T. (1964) "E¢ cient Estimation of Simulta-neous Equation Systems,"Econometrica 32(1-2): 57-76.

[44] Sargan, J.D. (1964) "Three-Stage Least-Squares and Full Maximum Likelihood Estimates," Econometrica 32(1-2): 77-81.

[45] Schneider, F. and Enste, D. (2000) "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences",Journal of Economic Literature 38:77-114.

[46] Schneider, F. (2005) "Shadow Economies Around the World: What do We Really Know,"European Journal of Political Economy, 25(3): 598-642.

[47] Schermelleh-Engel, K. and Klein, A. and Moosbrugger, H. (1998) "Estimating Nonlinear E¤ects Using a Latent Moderated Structural Equations Model".

In Interaction and Nonlinear E¤ects in Structural Equation Modeling. Eds.

Schumacker, R. and Marcoulides, G. pp. 203-238. Psychology Press.

[48] Schumacker, R.E. and Lomax, R.G. (2004) A Beginner’s Guide to Structural Equation Modeling, Second Edition, Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.

[49] Smith, R. (2002) "The Underground Economy: Guidance for Policy Makers?"

Canadian Tax Journal 50(5): 1655-1661.

[50] Torgler, B. and Schneider, F. (2005) "Attitudes Towards Paying Taxes in Aus-tria: An Empirical Analysis," Empirica 32:231-250.

[51] Weber, M. (1904)The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism, Tübingen.

[52] World Values Surveys 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005.

[53] Zellner, A. (1970) "Estimation of Regression Relationships Containing Unob-servable Variables,"International Economic Review 11: 441-454.

[54] Zellner, A and Theil, H. (1962) "Three-Stage Least Squares: Simultaneous Estimation of Simultaneous Equations,"Econometrica 30(1): 54-78.

Economic Freedom as a Driver for Growth in