4.2 Evaluation of the main findings
4.2.3 Effects of forest conservation scenarios and thinning regimes on forest volume
An increase in forest conservation area by 10 or 20% in Finland increased the volume growth, carbon stock (in trees and soil) and amount of deadwood, regardless of climate applied, unlike timber production. From the climate change point of view, increased volume growth, and subsequent carbon sequestration, would provide useful means for mitigation of climate change. Over many decades, Finnish forests have acted as substantial carbon sinks (in trees and soil) (Liski et al. 2006). This is because the annual increment in volume of growing stock has been substantially higher than removals. On average, the annual net removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by Finnish forests is approximately 30 million tons of CO2, representing 60% of the total emissions for the whole country (Natural Resources Institute 2017). However, it should be considered that higher amount of growing stock, compared to the current, implies more volume stock at risk for different natural disturbances.
On the other hand, a decrease in the amount of harvested timber may also affect the mitigation potential of the forests if less wood-based material would be available for substitution of fossil-based materials and energy. For example, Leppänen et al. (2000) stated that increasing forest conservation areas under the current climate would reduce wood availability for forest industries. On the other hand, based on a studies by Hynynen et al.
(2015) and Heinonen et al. (2018), there is potential to increase simultaneously annual removals by applying more intensive forest management, such as increase in forest fertilization and use of improved seedlings stock. From the forest owner point of view, possible compensation of economic losses for increase in forest conservation areas (Mökkönen et al. 2009; Öhman et al. 2011; Triviño et al. 2015) may help to balance the bioeconomy and biodiversity targets at the national level.
Intensive extraction of forest biomass may also have significant consequences on different environmental functions and services (Eyvindson et al. 2018; Pohjanmies et al.
2017). Several studies have indicated trade-offs between intensifying forest biomass harvesting, and maintaining forest biodiversity (Mönkkönen et al. 2014), and recreational values (Verkerk et al. 2014; Eräjää et al. 2010). In addition, Heinonen et al. (2017) found trade-offs between increase in timber removal and amount of deadwood and carbon balance of Finnish forestry during the coming 90 year.
Regardless of region and climate applied, maintenance of 20% lower growing stock, compared to the baseline thinning regime, resulted in this work the highest total amount of deadwood due to increase in logging residues (i.e. coarse roots, branches and stumps), which were left on site. This is also advantage for some deadwood dependent species (Nordén et al.
2004; Selonen et al. 2005; Küffer et al. 2008). The future changes in forest structure (age and tree species) and severity of climate change affect together habitat availability for deadwood-associated species (see e.g., Mazziotta et al. 2016). Therefore, strategies aiming to both enhance forest resilience and integrate simultaneously different ecosystem services are highly needed for sustainable forest management (Repo et al. 2015; Triviño et al. 2017).
4.3 Conclusions
Based on the findings of this work, the impacts of different climate change projections on volume growth, carbon stock, timber yield, economic profitability and amount of deadwood varied largely depending on geographical region, tree species preferences, and severity of climate change projections. The degree of differences in the responses of tree species and boreal regions increased along with the severity of climate change. In simulations, the use of individual GCMs, such as HadGEM2-ES RCP8.5 and GFDL-CM3 RCP8.5, affected the studied variables more than the use of the multi-model means, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections. The positive impacts of climate change were larger in the north regardless of tree species. In southern Finland, the severe climate change projections, such as those predicted by GDFL-CM3 RCP8.5, most likely would create suboptimal growing conditions for Norway spruce and partially Scots pine, unlike Silver birch. In general, preferring a certain tree species in forest regeneration affected the tree species proportion more than did the climate change projection with the exception of Norway spruce in the south.
The forest productivity and carbon stock are greatly affected by current forest structure (age and species composition), severity of climate change, and forest management. Based on this work, the volume of growing stock will increase in Finland by 2100 even under the current climate (up to 18%), but more under the changing climate (up to 37%), depending on
climate change projection) under the baseline management and conservation scenario. This is because the harvested amount of timber was on average about 60% of the total volume growth of growing stock, regardless of climate applied.
In the future, better understanding on how different ecosystem services are affected by alternative forest management strategies and climate change projections is needed for sustainable management and utilization of forest resources (see e.g., Seidl et al. 2007;
Kellomäki et al. 2008; Seidl and Lexer 2013; Kindermann et al. 2013). In further studies, it also should be considered increasing risks to forests by various abiotic and biotic forest damages under climate change (see e.g., Reyer et al. 2017). Furthermore, impact studies need to consider also several climate change projections, representing different GCMs and RCPs, respectively, to consider the large uncertainties related to climate change and its impacts on forests and forestry. Evaluation of the economic impacts of climate change and management strategies over a longer period also involves considerable uncertainties, for instance, due to possible changes in timber prices and management costs and the interest rate used in calculations. By considering such uncertainties would be needed in decision making.
An increase in forest conservation area in Finland nowadays may increase the volume growth, carbon stock, and amount of deadwood in forests, unlike timber production. This would imply less forest biomass available for the bioeconomy and subsequently substituting fossil-based materials and energy unless the intensity of forest management is not increased simultaneously on forestland assigned for wood production. Currently, there is pressure to increase forest biomass harvests in the future to meet the increasing wood demands by the forest-based bioeconomy. However, this should be done in a sustainable way by maintaining other ecosystem services. Therefore, management strategies aiming to simultaneously enhance forest resilience and to provide in a sustainable way different ecosystem services are highly needed. For example, favoring mixtures of conifers and broadleaves, and modifying site-specific cultivation of different tree species and thinning practices and using shorter rotation if needed, may help to adapt to climate change in boreal forests and forestry.
However, depending on the region, tree species, and severity of climate change, various adaptive measures may be needed to utilize the positive impacts and minimize the harmful impacts of climate change in boreal conditions. By using proper adaptive measures, at least partially it may be counteracted the predicted reduction in forest growth and harmful impacts to different ecosystem services under severe climate change.
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