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THE US IS REFOCUSING ITS FOREIGN POLICY PRIORITIES ON THE INDO-PACIFIC

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FIIA

COMMENT

-- C IL

FINNISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

SEPTEMBER 2021

14

Bart Gaens, Leading Researcher, FIIA

THE US IS REFOCUSING ITS FOREIGN POLICY PRIORITIES ON THE INDO-PACIFIC

RECALIBRATING ALLIANCE POLITICS IN A PIVOTAL REGION

Te United States under President Joe Biden is strengthening eforts to constrain China in the Indo-Pacifc region. At least for now, a new US focus on the region is aimed primarily at reinforcing “minilateral” alignments, potentially at the expense of the EU and its member states.

The first-ever “live” summit be- tween the leaders of the US, Aus- tralia, India and Japan – the “Quad”

grouping – will take place in Wash- ington D.C. on Friday 24 Septem- ber. Te meeting has been preceded by Australia’s announcement on 16 September that it would aban- don a 56-billion-euro contract with France for the construction of twelve diesel-powered subma- rines, opting instead to develop nu- clear-fuelled submarines conjointly with the US and the UK. Tis would boost Australia’s naval capabilities in the Indo-Pacifc, including in the South China Sea.

Canberra’s change of mind co- incided with the announcement of a new trilateral security agree- ment between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States.

Tis defence pact, under the acro- nym AUKUS, would allow the three countries to work more closely to- gether in sharing key military and defence technologies.

France reacted with outrage, and EU foreign ministers, after a delay, indicated solidarity with Paris, ex- pressing disappointment with Aus- tralia’s reneging on the contract.

Interestingly, on the same day that AUKUS saw the light of day, the EU launched its own Indo-Pacific strategy, following regional strate- gy papers by member states France – the frst to publish an Indo-Pacifc strategy in 2018 – as well as Germa- ny and the Netherlands in 2020.

Tese interconnected develop- ments have a threefold signifcance.

First, the events show that the Indo-Pacific region is the number

one priority for the US, particularly after the withdrawal from Afghan- istan. The Biden administration is keen to send an amplifed message to China that it is willing to defend US interests. Te AUKUS pact serves that function by including the UK, a country that this year announced its own “defence tilt” to the Indo- Pacifc and, importantly, shares nu- clear technology with the US. The signal to China is further strength- ened by sharing military and nu- clear technology with Australia through the submarine deal.

Second, the recent develop- ments are illustrative of a shift in the hub-and-spokes alliance sys- tem towards a stronger focus on minilateralism, namely cooperation at the tri- and quadrilateral level, of which the newly-created AUKUS

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SEPTEMBER 2021 14

and the Quad are examples. What these structures have in common with others, such as the Australia- Japan-US trilateral strategic dia- logue (TSD), the India-Japan-US and the Australia-India-Japan trilateral dialogues, is a focus on issue-based cooperation. Earlier this year, for instance, the US, Japan and Australia created a partnership for Indo- Pacifc infrastructure investment.

Te Quad as well, which started as a low-key and informal consulta- tion mechanism at the level of senior ofcials, has now grown into a sum- mit-level gathering with slightly more meat on the bones. In addition to likely issuing a strong statement on the situation in the Taiwan Strait for the first time, the forthcoming summit will focus on cooperation on creating a safe supply chain for semiconductors, and on building communication networks, with both issues sending strong signals to Beijing. Another recent addition to the sphere of alignment is the Quad Plus level, in which cooperation in one feld is extended to include oth- er strategic regional partners such as South Korea or Vietnam.

Tird, the US’s prioritization of national interests and strong efort to bolster regional partnerships in

order to constrain China risk alien- ating other actors, including the EU and individual EU member states, which favour a more inclusive re- gional order. The EU’s as well as member states’ Indo-Pacifc strate- gies, for example, give a central role to ASEAN in the regional architec- ture, and emphasize an inclusive (i.e. not directly countering China) approach to the region. As a result of its more “woolly” approach, the EU may continue to diverge from the US position. The most recent submarine commotion, for exam- ple, may affect the EU-US Trade and Technology Council meeting in Pittsburgh on 29 September.

The incident may also jeopardize the envisaged progress on EU-US semiconductor manufacturing, and could also stall trade negotiations between the EU and Australia.

In short, a US-driven net- work of strategic partnerships is expanding at multiple levels and in diverse formats. It follows that the chances of a comprehensive anti-China alliance or an Asian NATO arising in the Indo-Pacific remain low. Instead, partnerships in the Indo-Pacific are likely to increasingly focus on pragmat- ic, functional, and issue-based

cooperation, while ofering coun- tries such as India and others a way to avoid openly confronting China.

Rather than seeking grand ges- tures such as renegotiating US re-entry into mega-regional trade deals, the Biden administration is aiming for a more proactive stance in the Indo-Pacific by fostering a network of allies and partners who welcome US leadership and are eager to bufer China’s growing regional infuence. Minilateral, is- sue-based cooperation is the name of the game. In this context, the EU can play a role in the region, bol- stering its own strengths.

Te EU can notably cooperate with regional partners, including the US, in felds such as the pro- motion of democracy and the rule of law; trade relations; connectiv- ity and its regulatory framework;

and the promotion of sustaina- ble development through “green alliances”, for example. France, for its part, and as a player with direct territorial interests in the Indo-Pacifc, may well become a part of a Quad Plus arrangement in the future. For this to occur, however, it will eventually need to patch up relations with both the US and Australia.

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