Symposium on Advances in Technology Education Conference proceedings

(1)

Juha Kontio, Meiju Keinänen, Tarja Åberg & Elina Asukas (eds.)

ISATE – International

Symposium on Advances in Technology Education Conference proceedings

August 17

^th

–20

^th

, Turku, Finland – part 3

(2)

Research Reports from Turku University of Applied Sciences 51 Turku University of Applied Sciences

Turku 2021

ISBN 978-952-216-796-5 (pdf) ISSN 1796-9964 (electronic)

KWWSMXONDLVXWWXUNXDPNˉLVEQSGI 7XUNX8$6ȠSXEOLFDWLRQVWXUNXDPNˉMXONDLVXW

Juha Kontio, Meiju Keinänen, Tarja Åberg & Elina Asukas (eds.)

ISATE – International Symposium on Advances in Technology Education Conference proceedings August 17^th–20^th, Turku, Finland – part 1

ISBN 978-952-216-794-1

Juha Kontio, Meiju Keinänen, Tarja Åberg & Elina Asukas (eds.)

ISATE – International Symposium on Advances in Technology Education Conference proceedings August 17^th–20^th, Turku, Finland – part 2

ISBN 978-952-216-795-8

Juha Kontio, Meiju Keinänen, Tarja Åberg & Elina Asukas (eds.) ISATE – International Symposium on Advances in Technology Education Conference proceedings August 17^th–20^th, Turku, Finland – part 3

ISBN 978-952-216-796-5

(3)

Health Technology and Medical Engineering

Research and activities on medical data analysis and medical diagnosis support system Miyori Shirasuna

Development of Flood Hazard Map for the Visually Impaired

Tomohiro Kiyotaki, Taisei Miyasaka, Hikonosuke Aizu, Yoshinori Fujisawa Development of Wearable Braille Reader

Akiha Yanagisawa, Shoichi Ito

Evaluation of Prep-n-GoTM Buffer for DNA extraction in urine sample Cheung Kuen Wan, Ka Po Ngai

'HYHORSPHQWRI&RPPXQLFDWLRQ7RROVIRU3HRSOHZLWK6SHHFK'LIˋFXOWLHV Daichi Matsuzawa, Yoshinori Fujisawa

Technical Exchange Between Thai and Japanese Students Working on a Mekong River Joint Project Tomonari Masuzaki, Supachai Prainetr, Tomonori Tabusa, Hidetsugu Hukuda, Toshio Mukai, Ganbat DAVAA ,QIHFWLRQFDSDELOLW\RIPDWHULDOVXVLQJJUDSKHQHˋOPDQGLWVLPSHGDQFHFKDUDFWHULVWLFV

Hideyuki Kanematsu, Ryoichi Nakagawa, Yuki Torisawa, Hidekazu Miura, Masato Ishihara, Masahito Ban, Dana M. Barry, Stefan Zimmermann

Development of a transfer aid which can be used by a wheelchair user without assistance Yusuke KOBAYASHI, Daisuke MIYASHITA

Evaluation of iEMG Focusing on Trunk Muscles During One-Handed Wheelchair Driving Satoshi Ohashi, Akira Shionoya, Keiu Harada

Toward EMG estimation of wheelchair operation with neural network

Shimpei Aihara, Ryusei Shibata, Ryosuke Mizukami, Takara Sakai, Akira Shionoya Oxygen Intake Estimation in Wheelchair Driving by Machine Learning

Akira Shionoya, Ryousuke Mizukami, Syogo Asanuma, Masahito Nagamori, Hisashi Uchiyama, Satoshi Ohashi ([SORUDWLRQRIDQLQˌHFWLRQSRLQWRI9HQWLODWLRQ3DUDPHWHUVZLWK$QDHURELF7KUHVKROGE\WKH6WUXFFKDQJH Akira Shionoya, Takenori Aida, Hirofumi Nonaka, Kouji Hayami, Hisashi Uchiyama, Masahito Nagamori, Satoshi Ohhashi, Mai Kobayashi, Tsugumi Takayama, Shinji Kimura

Effects of Wave Images on Standing Posture of Ship Crew Takanori Sakamaki, Renon Doine

Estimating the Emotional Information of the Songs using Search Engines Jin Akaishi, Masaki Sakata, Mitsutaka Nakano, Kazuhiro Koshi, Kimiyasu Kiyota

Development of Remote Support System to Improve Physical Activity Habits of Elderly Patients with COPD Chisato Ohashi, Shunsuke Akiguchi, Mineko Ohira

(4)

Practical education for advanced engineers of KOSEN based on assistive technology for a sustainable society

Kimiyasu Kiyota, Koichi Watanabe, Keijiro Araki, Akira Shionoya, Mitsuteru Inoue

Technology-enhanced Exercise is Effective in Improving Balance and Happiness Level among Healthy Elders – Pilot Study

Evelyn KO, Wollo WU, Florence MOK

Consideration of Tablet Application for Special Needs Children with Multiple Support Functions Shunsuke Akiguchi, Chisato Ohashi

Case Study of Curriculum Design of Computer Programming related to Assistive Technology Manabu Shimakawa, Chiharu Okuma, Kimiyasu Kiyota

CDIO Approach based Educational Project of Sensor Fusion for Assistive Technology Kosei Nojiri, Hirofumi Ohtsuka, Daichi Arai, Etsuo Horikawa

,PDJH&RUUHFWLRQ0HWKRGVRI&LUUKRVLV/LYHU&ODVVLˋFDWLRQRQ&11V Yoshihiro Mitani

Development of a High Repetition Impulse Power Supply for Sterilization by High Electric Fields Takahisa Ueno, Kyohei Asami, Takashi Furukawa, Takashi Sakugawa

Assistive Technology in Education for Self-Monitoring with an Optical Wearable Heart Rate Monitor Masahito Nagamori, Miwako Fukuda, Hajime Takano, Nao Shinoda, Akira Shionoya, Satoshi Ohhashi, Tatuya Susukida, Masaki Nagasawa, Hitoshi Miyake

Improvement of Gaze Input Communication System with Predictive Conversion Katsumi Hama, YU Jia Xin, Manabu Suzuki, Takahiko Nakamura

Development of a Smartphone Operation Support System Based on Inclusive Design Yeoh Wei Loon, Ryuto Handa, Isamu Matsuno, Hidetoshi Nakayama, Shinya Suzuki

Functional Engineering Materials

Mechanical Property of Low-Melting Sn-Bi Lead-Free Solder Alloys Akira Yamauchi

Low-temperature sintering of ZnAl2O4 ceramics containing Cu3Nb2O8 additive and their dielectric and thermal properties

Koichi Shigeno, Takuma Yano, Hirotaka Fujimori

)DEULFDWLRQRIˌH[LEOHPDJQHWRRSWLFDOLQGLFDWRUZLWK.26(1VWXGHQWVIRUHQJLQHHULQJHGXFDWLRQRIQRQ destructive inspection

Ryosuke Hashimoto, Yuya Funaki, Toshiya Itaya

4XDQWLWDWLYHHYDOXDWLRQRI%LRˋOPVIRUPHGRQYDULRXVPDWHULDOVXVLQJFU\VWDOYLROHW

Hideyuki Kanematsu, Kei Sakurai, Ryo Satoh, Dana M. Barry, Nobumitsu Hirai, Toshihiro Tanaka

(YDOXDWLRQIRUDQWLYLUDOFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIYDULRXVPHWDOOLFPDWHULDOVXVLQJ,QˌXHQ]D$DQGIHOLQHFDOLFLYLUXV Hideyuki Kanematsu, Dana M. Barry, Takeshi Kogo, Risa Kawai, Ryo Satoh

(5)

On-site characterization of impurities in gypsum from waste plasterboards for circular economy system Masamoto Tafu, Juna Nakamura, Momoka Tanii, Saori Takamatsu, Atsushi Manaka

A concrete example of societal Implementations based on GEAR Material Project Takaya Sato, Hideyuki Kanematsu, Hitoshi Wake

MORPHOLOGY CONTROL OF MONOMER-POLYMER HYBRID ELECTRON ACCEPTOR FOR BULK- HETEROJUNCTION SOLAR CELL

Takehito Kato, Yuki Kurokawa, Kei Nishii, Yasuyuki Ueda, Fuminobu Imaizumi, Daisuke Kawagoe, Shin-nosuke Suzuki, Hideyuki Kanematsu, Tadashi Fukumoto

Development of biomass-based plastics with biodegradability and thermoplasticity.

Ryo Satoh, Michiko Konno, Saika Honma, Takashi Morinaga, Toshio Kamijo, Takaya Sato Tensile Examination and Strength Evaluation of Latewood in Japanese Wood

Akihiro Takahashi

Fracture Behavior and Strength Degradation in Over-Aged Maraging Steel Akihiro Takahashi

%HKDYLRURISRO\VLOR[DQHˋOPVLQFRQWDFWZLWKDTXHRXVVROXWLRQVRUELRˋOPVLPXODWLQJVROXWLRQV Nobumitsu Hirai, Masaya Horii, Nanako Sugawara, Himeka Kato, Katsuhiko Sano, Akira Suzuki, Yoshiaki Sawada, Takeshi Kougo, Akiko Ogawa, Daisuke Kuroda, Hideyuki Kanematsu

Synthesis and Properties of Graphene Oxide Composite Electrolyte Membrane with Single Ion Conductivity Ryo SHOMURA, Ryota TAMATE, Takashi MORINAGA, Takaya SATO, Kazunori TAKADA

Characterization of a double network ion gel formed by one pot synthesis

Hiroyuki Arafune, Kenta Miura, Sachiho Inoue, Yuto Tsuchida, Yuma Watarai, Takashi Morinaga, Toshio Kamijo, Takaya Sato

Characteristics of Powder Discharge by Vibrating Fluidization

Koichiro Ogata, Tsutomu Harada, Riho Abe, Hideo Kawahara, Eiji Mitani, Koji Mitani

Mechanical joining of two ultra-high-strength steel and one aluminium sheets using pre-punched middle sheet

Yohei Abe, Ken-ichiro Mori

BROAD EXCITATION BAND OF SPIN WAVE USING MICROSTRIP LINE FOR MAGNONIC DEVICE Kanta Mori, Taichi Goto, Toshiaki Watanabe, Pang Boey Lim, Mitsuteru Inoue

'HYHORSPHQWRIPXOWLIHUURLFFRPSRVLWHˋOPVIRUYROWDJHGULYHQPDJQHWRRSWLFVSHFLDOOLJKWPRGXODWRUV Yuichi Nakamura, Naohide Kamada, Ryo Hasumi, Taichi Goto, Pang Boey Lim, Hironaga Uchida, Mitsuteru Inoue

MAGNETOOPTICAL PROPERTIES OF CERIUM SUBSTITUTED YTTRIUM IRON GARNET FILMS FOR SPIN CONTROLLED LASERS

Yuki Yoshihara, Pang Boey Lim, Mitsuteru Inoue, Taichi Goto SPIN CONTROLLED LASER USING MAGNETIC GARNET FILM

Taichi Goto, Ken Aoki, Hibiki Miyashita, Yuki Yoshihara, Takumi Koguchi, Pang Boey Lim, Mani Mina, Mitsuteru Inoue

(6)

SIMULATION OF MAGNETIC DOMAIN FOR SPIN WAVE LOGIC DEVICE Takumi Koguchi, Tadashi Ataka, Pang Boey Lim, Mitsuteru Inoue, Taichi Goto

0HFKDQLFDO3URSHUW\&KDQJHVRI$XVWHQLWLF6WDLQOHVV6WHHOVE\6HYHUH3ODVWLF'HIRUPDWLRQDQG6XEVHTXHQW Aging

Frank Jaksoni Mweta, Yoshikazu Todaka, Nozomu Adachi

Formation mechanism of micro-arc and coating by plasma electrolytic oxidation of titanium Toshiaki Yasui, Katsuki Hayashi, Masahiro Fukumoto

(YDOXDWLRQRIHOHFWURGHGHVLJQRIDPLFURˌXLGLFLPSHGDQFHELRVHQVRUIRU'1DVHDVVD\

Kanta Nishibayashi, Seimei Oku, Takahiro Himuro, Masanori Eguchi

(7)

Health

Technology

and Medical

Engineering

(8)

^WK,QWHUQDWLRQDO6\PSRVLXPRQ$GYDQFHVLQ7HFKQRORJ\(GXFDWLRQ

$XJXVW7XUNX)LQODQG

5HVHDUFKDQG$FWLYLWLHVRQ0HGLFDO'DWD$QDO\VLV DQG0HGLFDO'LDJQRVLV6XSSRUW6\VWHP

0L\RUL6KLUDVXQD

1DWLRQDO,QVWLWXWHRI7HFKQRORJ\7VXUXRND&ROOHJH'HSDUWPHQWRI&UHDWLYH(QJLQHHULQJ&RXUVH RI0HFKDQLFDO(QJLQHHULQJ$VVLVWDQWSURIHVVRU<DPDJDWD-DSDQ

PVKLUDVXQD#WVXUXRNDQFWDFMS

$EVWUDFW

,Q FROODERUDWLRQ ZLWK PHGLFDO LQVWLWXWLRQV ZH DUH HQJDJHGLQUHVHDUFKFRQFHUQLQJPHGLFDOGDWDDQDO\VLV DQG GLDJQRVWLF VXSSRUW XVLQJ VLPSOH DQG VWUDLJKWIRUZDUGVWDWLVWLFDODQDO\VLVPHWKRGVIURPDQ HQJLQHHULQJ VWDQGSRLQW DQG SHUVSHFWLYH &XUUHQWO\

-DSDQHVH PHGLFLQH LV PRUH UHJUHVVLYH WKDQ WKDW LQ RWKHU GHYHORSHG FRXQWULHV LQ WHUPV RI WHFKQRORJ\

NQRZOHGJH VKDULQJ DQG VXFFHVVLRQ SODQQLQJ

$GGLWLRQDOO\ WKH VKRUWDJH RI GRFWRUV D GHFOLQLQJ ELUWKUDWHDQGDQDJLQJSRSXODWLRQKDYHEHHQQRWHGDV IXWXUHSUREOHPVLQ-DSDQWKDWQHHGWREHDGGUHVVHG 7R WKLV HQG ZH KDYH DQDO\]HG GDWD RQ 6OHHS $SQHD 6\QGURPH 6$6 DQG DVVLVWHG ZLWK OLNHOLKRRG GLVFULPLQDWLRQ LQFOXGLQJ WKH XVH RI SUHOLPLQDU\

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

2XUPHGLFDOGLDJQRVWLFVXSSRUWLVHVVHQWLDOO\EDVHG RQ WKH H[SHULHQFH RI D SK\VLFLDQ WKDW KDV GHYHORSHG PXOWLSOHVHQVRU\LQGLFDWRUV:HEHOLHYHWKDWDYLVXDO DQGTXDQWLWDWLYHHPERGLPHQWRIWKLVUHPDLQVDILHOG ZLWK VXEVWDQWLDO URRP IRU H[SORUDWLRQ LQ -DSDQHVH PHGLFLQHDQGWKDWWKLVZLOOEHHYHQPRUHQHFHVVDU\LQ WKHIXWXUH)RUH[DPSOHRXUSURSRVDOIRUOLNHOLKRRG GHWHUPLQDWLRQRI6$6HQDEOHGDaIROGUHGXFWLRQLQ WKHWLPHUHTXLUHGIRUGLDJQRVLVDWPHGLFDOLQVWLWXWLRQV DQGZDVDFFRPSDQLHGE\DGHWHUPLQDWLRQUDWH ,Q WKH FDVH RI 2' GLVRUGHU ZH VXFFHHGHG LQ V\VWHPDWL]LQJ WKH H[SHULHQWLDO VLGH RI WKH SK\VLFLDQ DQGTXDQWLI\LQJWKHGLVFULPLQDWLRQFULWHULDWRREWDLQ DSRVLWLYHGLVFULPLQDWLRQUDWH!

.H\ZRUGV0HGLFDO$VVLVWDQFH6OHHS$SQHD6\QGURPH 2UWKRVWDWLF 5HJXODWLRQ 'LVRUGHU :DYHOHW 7UDQVIRUPDWLRQ0XOWLYDULDWH$QDO\VLV

,QWURGXFWLRQ

)URP DQ HQJLQHHULQJ VWDQGSRLQW DQG SHUVSHFWLYH ZH UHVHDUFK PHGLFDO GDWD DQDO\VLV DQG GLDJQRVWLF VXSSRUW XVLQJ VLPSOH VWDWLVWLFDO DQDO\VLV PHWKRGV GDWD PLQLQJ DQG VLJQDO SURFHVVLQJ VXFK DV ZDYHOHW WUDQVIRUP LQ FROODERUDWLRQZLWKPHGLFDOVSHFLDOLVWV$OWKRXJK-DSDQV PHGLFDO FDUH LV WHFKQRORJLFDOO\ DW WKH IRUHIURQW RI WKH ZRUOGLWLVODJJLQJEHKLQGRWKHUGHYHORSHGFRXQWULHVLQ WHUPVRIWHFKQRORJ\NQRZOHGJHVKDULQJDQGVXFFHVVLRQ SODQQLQJ $OVR D VKRUWDJH RI GRFWRUV D GHFOLQLQJ ELUWKUDWHDQDJLQJSRSXODWLRQDQGDGHFOLQLQJSRSXODWLRQ KDYH EHHQ SRLQWHG RXW DV IXWXUH FKDOOHQJHV IRU -DSDQ

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

LQGLFDWRUV 7KH YLVXDO DQG TXDQWLWDWLYH HPERGLPHQW RI WKLV LV D ILHOG WKDW VWLOO KDV D ORW RI URRP WR H[SORUH LQ -DSDQHVHPHGLFLQHDQGZHEHOLHYHLWZLOOEHHYHQPRUH QHFHVVDU\LQWKHIXWXUHWRVROYHWKHSUREOHPVPHQWLRQHG HDUOLHU 2XU PHGLFDO GLDJQRVWLF VXSSRUW LV HVVHQWLDOO\

EDVHG RQ WKH H[SHULHQFH RI SK\VLFLDQV ZKR KDYH GHYHORSHG PXOWLSOH VHQVRU\ LQGLFDWRUV 7KH YLVXDO DQG TXDQWLWDWLYHHPERGLPHQWRIWKLVLVDILHOGWKDWVWLOOKDVD ORW RI URRP WR H[SORUH LQ -DSDQHVH PHGLFLQH DQG ZH EHOLHYH LW ZLOO EH HYHQ PRUH QHFHVVDU\ LQ WKH IXWXUH WR VROYHWKHSUREOHPVPHQWLRQHGHDUOLHU

7KHVWUXFWXUHRIWKLVSDSHULVDVIROORZV,Q&KDSWHU ZH GHVFULEH RXU DSSURDFK WR PHGLFDO GDWD DQDO\VLV

&KDSWHU GHVFULEHV RXU FROODERUDWLRQ ZLWK SK\VLFLDQV

(9)

&KDSWHUGHVFULEHVRXUZRUNRQ6$6DVH[DPSOHDQG

&KDSWHU GHVFULEHV SHGLDWULF RUWKRVWDWLF G\VUHJXODWLRQ 2' DV H[DPSOH &KDSWHU GHVFULEHV WKH IRFXV RI WHDFKLQJ HQJLQHHULQJ VWXGHQWV UHVHDUFK FRQFHSWV XVLQJ RXU VWXGLHV DQG &KDSWHU SURYLGHV D VXPPDU\ RI WKLV SDSHU

0HGLFDOGDWDDQDO\VLV

0HGLFDO GDWD DQDO\VLV LV D ILHOG RI PHGLFDO HQJLQHHULQJ WKDWLVFXUUHQWO\EHLQJDSSOLHGIRUWKHDQDO\VLVRIPXOWLSOH GLVHDVHV5HFHQWUDSLGSURJUHVVLQPDFKLQHOHDUQLQJDQG DUWLILFLDO LQWHOOLJHQFH $, WHFKQLTXHV KDV DOORZHG VFLHQWLVWVWRFRQGXFWUHVHDUFKXVLQJWKHVHPHWKRGV7KHVH PHWKRGVFDQEHXVHGWRDQDO\]HYRLFHLPDJHVDQGRUD FRPELQDWLRQ RI WKHVH ZLWK DGGLWLRQDO DSSOLFDWLRQV H[SHFWHGLQWKHIXWXUH+RZHYHUWKHVHWHFKQRORJLHVKDYH LVVXHV)LUVWPDFKLQHOHDUQLQJDQG$,UHTXLUHH[WUHPHO\

ODUJH YROXPHV RI GDWD 6HFRQG DQDO\WLFDO UHVXOWV VKRZ WKDW HYHQ ZKHQ DFFXUDF\ LV JRRG WKH XQGHUO\LQJ DQDO\WLFDO SURFHVV UHSUHVHQWV D ³EODFN ER[´ 7KLUG WKH DFFXUDF\RIWKHVHLVKLJKHVWDWWKHWLPHRIGHOLYHU\LH DWWKHWLPHRILQLWLDODQDO\VLVDQGFUHDWLRQDQGWKHUHLVD FRQFHUQ WKDW WKLV DFFXUDF\ ZLOO GHFOLQH ODWHU UHTXLULQJ FRQWLQXHGPDLQWHQDQFH>@>@)RXUWKEHFDXVHPDQ\RI WKHVHDQDO\WLFDOPHWKRGVDUHGLIILFXOWWRXQGHUVWDQGRQO\

WKHDQDO\VWRURWKHUVLQWKHVHDUHDVZLOOEHDEOHWRLQWHUSUHW WKH UHVXOWV OHDYLQJ PDQ\ RI WKRVH SUHVHQWHG ZLWK WKH ILQGLQJVQHJOHFWIXORIRUXQDEOHWRWUDQVODWHWKHILQGLQJV

>@ 7KHUH DUH QXPHURXVUHSRUWV RI WKH DGYDQFHPHQW RI

$,LQPHGLFLQHDVZHOODVUHSRUWVRISUREOHPVZLWKLWV XVHHJDXWRPDWHGEORRGSUHVVXUHPRQLWRUVUHSRUWHGDV PHGLFDOO\ XQUHOLDEOH >@>@>@ :H FXUUHQWO\ DQDO\]H PHGLFDOGDWDEXWDUHXQDEOHWRDSSO\PDFKLQHOHDUQLQJRU

$,GXHWRWKHDEVHQFHRIDQHFHVVDU\DPRXQWRIGDWD7KH LGHDO IRUP RI PHGLFDO GDWD DQDO\VLV LV ³ZKLWH RSHQ´

ZKLFKGHVFULEHVVXSSRUWDQGHPSLULFDOUHSOLFDWLRQEDVHG RQWKHRSLQLRQVDQGUHTXHVWVRISK\VLFLDQV

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

:HKDYHZRUNHGZLWKV\VWHPVHQJLQHHUVSULRUWRWKHLU MRLQLQJ D XQLYHUVLW\ ILQGLQJ WKDW WKH\ H[SHULHQFHG D VXEVWDQWLDO GLYLGH EHWZHHQ FXVWRPHUV UHTXHVWLQJ DQDO\WLFDO VXSSRUW DQG WKH DQDO\VWV 2Q LVVXH LV WKDW DQDO\VWV WHQG WR DWWHPSW QHZ RU FRPSOLFDWHG DQDO\WLFDO PHWKRGV 1DWXUDOO\ FXVWRPHUV ZKR DUH SUHVHQWHG ZLWK UHVXOWVREWDLQHGIURPWKHVHPHWKRGVDUHRIWHQFRQIXVHG

ZKLFKLVDFRPPRQSUREOHPDVVRFLDWHGZLWKPHGLFDOGDWD DQDO\VLVXVLQJPDFKLQHOHDUQLQJDQG$,$OWKRXJKWKHVH PHWKRGVDUHXVHIXODGLVDGYDQWDJHLVWKDWHYHQDQDO\VWV FDQQRWYLVXDOL]HWKHDQDO\WLFDOSURFHVV7KHUHIRUHZHDUH IRFXVLQJRXUUHVHDUFKRQDPHWKRGWKDWDOORZVERWKWKH DQDO\VW DQG WKH FOLHQW LQ WKLV FDVH WKH SK\VLFLDQ WR XQGHUVWDQGVKDUHDQGGLVFXVVWKHDQDO\WLFDOPHWKRGDQG WKHPHDQLQJRIWKHUHVXOWV7KHVHLQLWLDWLYHVDQGVSHFLILF H[DPSOHVDUHGLVFXVVHGLQ&KDSWHUVDQG

6$6DQDO\VLV

6$6LVDGLVHDVHSUHVHQWLQPDQ\FRXQWULHVDQGDIUHTXHQW FDXVHRIDFFLGHQWVGXHWRGR]LQJRUGLVWUDFWLRQLQSDWLHQWV

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aKRXUV SHU VXEMHFW SHUIRUPLQJ PDQXDO YLVXDO DQDO\VLV RI GDWD REWDLQHGIURPDSRO\JUDSKH[DPLQDWLRQZKLFKLQYROYHV KRVSLWDOL]DWLRQIRURQHQLJKW>@>@

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

:H KDYH DWWHPSWHG WR GLDJQRVH 6$6 XVLQJ ,&

UHFRUGHUVDQGLPSURYHHIILFLHQF\IROORZHGE\VWDWLVWLFDO DQDO\VLV WR GHWHUPLQH 6$6 SUREDELOLW\ 7KH UHVXOWV DUH SURPLVLQJ DQG RXU IXWXUH ZRUN ZLOO LQYHVWLJDWH DQ DQDO\WLFDOPHWKRGWKDWFRPELQHVSUHYLRXVPHWKRGVZLWK PDFKLQH OHDUQLQJ :H EHOLHYH WKDW EHWWHU DQDO\WLFDO UHVXOWVFDQEHREWDLQHGE\DSSO\LQJYDULRXVWKHVWUHQJWKV RI PXOWLSOH PHWKRGV 7KLV ZLOO EH VXSSRUWHG E\ D -DSDQHVHJUDQWIRUVFLHQWLILFUHVHDUFKIRU\HDUVVWDUWLQJ LQ

9

(10)

)LJXUHVKRZVWKHFXUUHQW6$6GLDJQRVWLFVWHSVDQG WKH GLDJQRVWLF VWHSV WKDW LQFRUSRUDWH RXU SURSRVHG PHWKRG 2QWKHOHIWLVWKHGLDJQRVWLFVWHSWKDWLVFXUUHQWO\

SULPDULO\ SHUIRUPHG LQ KHDOWKFDUH IDFLOLWLHV DQG RQ WKH ULJKW LV WKH VWHS WKDW ZRXOG EH WDNHQ LI RXU SURSRVHG PHWKRGZHUHLQFRUSRUDWHG:HFDQVHHWKDWRXUSURSRVDO LVVLPSOHUWKDQWKHFXUUHQWVWHSV

2'DQDO\VLV

$SSUR[LPDWHO\ -DSDQHVH HOHPHQWDU\ WR KLJK VFKRRO VWXGHQWV DUH DIIOLFWHG ZLWK DXWRQRPLF G\VDXWRQRPLD%HFDXVHWKHSRSXODWLRQRIWKHUHOHYDQWDJH JURXSLVaPLOOLRQSHRSOHWKLVPDNHVWKHLQFLGHQFHUDWH a2'LVDGLVRUGHULQZKLFKEORRGSUHVVXUHDQGWKH SXOVHDUHQRWZHOOUHJXODWHGZLWKWKHFRQVHQVXVYLHZWKDW WKHDXWRQRPLFQHUYRXVV\VWHPLVDVWURQJIDFWRUDQGWKDW V\PSWRPVDUHRIWHQRYHUORRNHGRUQHJOHFWHGE\SDUHQWV DQGVFKRROV%HFDXVHWKHPDLQV\PSWRPVRI2' LQFOXGH DKDUGWLPHZDNLQJXSLQWKHPRUQLQJKHDGDFKHQDXVHD DQGODFNRIPRWLYDWLRQWKHDIIHFWHGSHUVRQLVPRUHOLNHO\

WREHWUXDQWZKLFKFDQFDXVHPXOWLSOHSUREOHPVLQWKHLU VRFLDOOLIH>@>@

+RZHYHUEHFDXVH2'LVDGLVHDVHWKDWSDWLHQWVFDQ UHFRYHU IURP ZLWK WKH DSSURSULDWH WUHDWPHQW LW LV LPSRUWDQWWKDWWKH\DUHGLDJQRVHGDWDQHDUO\VWDJHDQG EHFRPHZHOOLQIRUPHGRIWKHLVVXHV2'KDVDWWUDFWHGWKH DWWHQWLRQRI-DSDQHVHPHGLFDOVRFLHWLHVDQGUHVHDUFKKDV EHHQFRQGXFWHGDKHDGRIRWKHUFRXQWULHVKRZHYHUDODFN RIVSHFLDOLVWVUHPDLQVDPDMRUFKDOOHQJH7KHUHDUHIRXU PDLQ2'VXEW\SHVHDFKRIZKLFKLVWUHDWHGGLIIHUHQWO\

7KH H[SHULHQFH RI WKH VSHFLDOLVW SK\VLFLDQ LV LPSRUWDQW IRU WKLV FODVVLILFDWLRQ 7KH FXUUHQW JXLGHOLQHV IRU 2' GLDJQRVLV ZHUH HVWDEOLVKHG E\ WKH -DSDQHVH 6RFLHW\ RI 3HGLDWULF3V\FKRVRPDWLF0HGLFLQHLQDQGDUHEDVHG RQDWLPHGHSHQGHQWYDULDWLRQLQEORRGSUHVVXUHDQGKHDUW UDWHDFFRUGLQJWRFKDQJHVLQERG\SRVWXUHIURPWKHSURQH

VWDWH WR WKH XSULJKW VWDWH FDOOHG WKH TXHVWLRQLQJ DQG VWDQGLQJWHVWV

+RZHYHUWKLVFODVVLILFDWLRQLVRIWHQQRWLQOLQHZLWK JXLGHOLQHV DQG XVHG LQGHSHQGHQWO\ E\ SK\VLFLDQV :H KDYH DWWHPSWHG WR UHSOLFDWH WKH REVHUYDWLRQDO UROH RI SK\VLFLDQVWRSUHVHQWDTXDQWLWDWLYHPHDVXUHPHQWRIWKH GLDJQRVLV$GGLWLRQDOO\ZHKDYHDWWHPSWHGWRSURYLGHD

³ZKLWH RSHQ´ DQDO\VLV HQYLURQPHQW IRU SK\VLFLDQV LQ RUGHUWRDOORZWKHPWRFKHFNWKHSURJUHVVRIWKHDQDO\VLV LH GDWD FRQVLVWHQF\ DQG WKH VWDWH RI WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ ZKLOH SHUIRUPLQJ WKH DQDO\VLV :H KDYH REWDLQHG D GLVFULPLQDWLRQUDWHRI!IRUVXEW\SHDVVLJQPHQWDQG DUHIRFXVLQJRQSUHVHQWLQJVLPSOHEXWUHOLDEOHDQDO\WLFDO UHVXOWV XVLQJEDVLFVWDWLVWLFDOPHWKRGV$SSOLFDWLRQRIWKLV PHWKRGFDQSRWHQWLDOO\DOORZSK\VLFLDQVWRREWDLQLQVLJKW LQWR QHZ VXEW\SHV DQG HQDEOH WKHP WR WUDLQ RWKHU SK\VLFLDQVE\VKDULQJGDWD

2'UHVHDUFKLVSHUIRUPHGPDLQO\LQ-DSDQDOWKRXJKWKH GLVHDVHDIIOLFWVFKLOGUHQZRUOGZLGH7KHUHIRUHRXUJRDO LVWKDWWKLVUHVHDUFKZLOOSURPRWHGLDJQRVWLFVXSSRUWIRU 2'VSHFLDOLVWVZRUOGZLGHDQGKHDOWKVXSSRUWIRUFKLOGUHQ LQWKHIXWXUH

)LJXUH VKRZV WKH )LQRPHWHU 0,', E\ )LQDSUHV 0HGLFDO 6\VWHPV >@ D QRQLQYDVLYH EORRG SUHVVXUH PHWHU XVHG E\ 2' VSHFLDOLVWV GXULQJ D QHZ RUWKRVWDWLF WHVW,QJHQHUDOEORRGSUHVVXUHLVQRWDFRQWLQXRXVYDOXH LQ PHGLFDO LQVWLWXWLRQV DV LW LV LQ WKH KRPH EXW LQ WKLV FULVLV EORRG SUHVVXUH FDQ EH PHDVXUHG FRQWLQXRXVO\

7KHUHDUHVWLOO YHU\IHZPHGLFDOLQVWLWXWLRQVLQ-DSDQWKDW XVH WKLV FRQWLQXRXV EORRG SUHVVXUH PRQLWRULQJ GHYLFH 7KHUHIRUH ZH DUH XVLQJ WKH UHVXOWV IURP WKLV GHYLFH WR PDNHDQDFFXUDWHGLDJQRVLVRI2'DQGLWVVXEW\SHVEDVHG RQWKHUHVXOWVPHDVXUHGZLWKDFRPPRQEORRGSUHVVXUH PHDVXULQJ GHYLFH QRW D FRQWLQXRXV EORRG SUHVVXUH PHDVXULQJGHYLFH

)LJXUH7KHFXUUHQW6$6GLDJQRVWLFVWHSVDQGWKHGLDJQRVWLFVWHSVWKDW LQFRUSRUDWHRXUSURSRVHGPHWKRG

(11)

)LJXUH1RQLQYDVLYHEORRGSUHVVXUHPRQLWRULQJ GHYLFHVXVHGE\2'VSHFLDOLVWVGXULQJWKHQHZ

RUWKRVWDWLFWHVW

2'DVH[DPSOH&KDSWHUGHVFULEHVWKHIRFXVRI WHDFKLQJ HQJLQHHULQJ VWXGHQWV UHVHDUFK FRQFHSWV XVLQJ RXU VWXGLHV DQG &KDSWHU SURYLGHV D VXPPDU\ RI WKLV SDSHU

*XLGDQFHWRHQJLQHHULQJVWXGHQWV

(QJLQHHULQJ VWXGHQWV DUH JRRG DW XVLQJ PDWKHPDWLFDO IRUPXODV DQG QDWXUDO ODZV DV WRROV EXW VRPHZKDW PRUH OLNHO\WRUHO\RQWKHWRROV)RUH[DPSOHVWXGHQWVFDQXVH DOLEUDU\RIGDWDDQDO\VLVVRIWZDUHEXWKDYHOLWWOHFRQWURO

RU XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI WKH PHDQLQJ RI WKH OLEUDU\ RU WKH LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI WKH UHVXOWV 7KLV LV FDOOHG͆ILOHIROGHU WKLQNLQJ͇DQGDFRPPRQWUDLWRIHQJLQHHULQJVWXGHQWV 7KLVDSSURDFKLVVLPLODUWRWUDQVODWLQJZULWWHQ-DSDQHVH LQWR(QJOLVKXVLQJDQDXWRPDWLFWUDQVODWRUIROORZHGE\

WUDQVIHUULQJ WKH SDVVDJH LQWR D UHSRUW ZLWKRXW YHULI\LQJ WKDWWKHPHDQLQJLVFRQVLVWHQWZLWKWKHRULJLQDO-DSDQHVH 7KHUHIRUH VWXGHQWV ZLWK ZKRP , SHUIRUP UHVHDUFK DUH LQYROYHG LQ H[WHQVLYH GLVFXVVLRQV DQG DUH IUHTXHQWO\

DVNHGWRH[SODLQLQWKHLURZQZRUGVZK\DPHWKRGZDV XVHGDQGZK\WKH\WKLQNWKH\UHFHLYHGDJLYHQUHVXOW7KLV DOORZV WKHP WR WKLQN DERXW ZKDW QHHGV WR EH GRQH IRU VXEVHTXHQWSUREOHPVDQGUHSUHVHQWVDNLQGRIUHSHWLWLRQ WKDW HQFRXUDJHV WKHP WR WKLQN IRU WKHPVHOYHV

$GGLWLRQDOO\ EHFDXVH HDFK VWXGHQW SUHVHQWV D GLIIHUHQW SHUVRQDOLW\ DQG OHYHO RI H[SHUWLVH DVVLJQPHQWV DUH SUHVHQWHGDFFRUGLQJWRWKHLUVWUHQJWKVZKLFKFDQEHYHU\

GLIILFXOW +RZHYHU WKH KRSH LV WKDW WKLV UHSHWLWLRQ ZLOO OHDG WR D SURFHVV RI FXOWLYDWLQJ D WUXVWLQJ UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ WKH VWXGHQWV DQG WKH LQVWUXFWRU DQG KHOS WKHP RYHUFRPH SUREOHPV WKH\ PLJKW H[SHULHQFH DV VWXGHQWV EHIRUHJUDGXDWLQJ

)LJXUH VKRZV DQ H[DPSOH RI D PHGLFDO VXSSRUW V\VWHP IRU 2' FUHDWHG E\ D VWXGHQW 7LPH VHULHV GDWD PHDVXUHG ZLWK QRQLQYDVLYH FRQWLQXRXV VSK\JPRPDQRPHWHUV DQG KHDUW UDWH PHDVXULQJ LQVWUXPHQWV DUH FOHDQVHG DQG YDULRXV VWDWLVWLFV HJ PHDQYDULDQFHNXUWRVLVDQGVNHZQHVVDUHSUHVHQWHGDV DUHVXOW%DVHGRQWKHVHUHVXOWVEORRGSUHVVXUHDQGKHDUW UDWH KLVWRJUDPV FDQ DOVR EH FUHDWHG VR GRFWRUV FDQ YLVXDOO\ FDSWXUH LQIRUPDWLRQ IURP PHDVXUHPHQWV WKDW ZHUHSUHYLRXVO\RQO\QXPHULFDO

)LJXUH $QLQWHUDFWLYH2'PHGLFDOVXSSRUWV\VWHP FUHDWHGE\VWXGHQWV

11

(12)

&RQFOXVLRQV

7KLVUHSRUWEULHIO\GHVFULEHVRXUDSSURDFKWRPHGLFDOGDWD DQDO\VLVRXUFROODERUDWLRQZLWKVSHFLDOLVWSK\VLFLDQVWZR SUDFWLFDOH[DPSOHVRIRXUDFWLYLWLHVDQGWKHWHDFKLQJDQG UHVHDUFK JXLGDQFH RI HQJLQHHULQJ VWXGHQWV FRQFHUQLQJ WKHVH VWXGLHV DQG DFWLYLWLHV ,W LV GLIILFXOW WR YLVXDOO\

UHSUHVHQW RU TXDQWLI\ WKH H[SHULHQFH RI D VSHFLDOLVW 0RUHRYHUDVHQJLQHHUVZHXQGHUVWDQGWKDWPHGLFDODQG PHGLFDO HQJLQHHULQJ PHWKRGV XVHIXO IRU GDWD DQDO\VLV FRQWLQXHWRDGYDQFHGDLO\7KHUHIRUHZHZLOOFRQWLQXHWR VWXG\DQGIROORZXSRQWKHVHPHWKRGVDQGZRUNFORVHO\

ZLWKGRFWRUVWRKHOSLPSURYHWKHKHDOWKFDUHLQ-DSDQDQG DURXQG WKH ZRUOG )XUWKHUPRUH ZH ZLOO FRQWLQXH WR HGXFDWHHQJLQHHULQJVWXGHQWVDQGVXSSRUWWKHEURDGHQLQJ RI WKHLU SHUVSHFWLYHV DQG IOH[LELOLW\ RI WKHLU FULWLFDO WKLQNLQJVNLOOVWRVXSSRUWWKHLUIXWXUHUROHVLQWKHJOREDO DUHQD

$FNQRZOHGJHPHQWV

7KLV ZRUN ZDV VXSSRUWHG E\ -636 .$.(1+, *UDQW 1XPEHU.

:H DUH JUDWHIXO WR 0' 1RULR .$=80$ .$=80$

.2'202 &OLQLF 6DLWDPD -DSDQ 0' <$68+,52 ,6+.$:$ ,6+,.$:$ &OLQLF 6DLWDPD -DSDQ DQG 3URI6+27DGDVKL+LURVKLPD,QVWLWXWHRI7HFKQRORJ\

+LURVKLPD-DSDQIRUWKHLUHIIRUWVLQWKLVUHVHDUFK

5HIHUHQFHV

$,$UWLILFLDO,QWHOOLJHQFH6SHFLDOL]HG0HGLDIURP KWWSVOHGJHDLPHGLFDOFRPSDULVRQ

1LSSRQ-LPXNL&RIURP

KWWSVFDUQDVQMFFRMSFROXPQFULVLVLQFUHDVLQJ HOGHUO\SRSXODWLRQ

1HW2QHIURP

KWWSVZZZQHWRQHFRMSNQRZOHGJHFHQWHUQHWRQH EORJ

1LNNHL;7(&+IURP

KWWSV[WHFKQLNNHLFRPDWFOQ[WPDJV\V

&RSH % .DODQW]LV 0 6HDUVPLWK '

$UWLILFLDOLQWHOOLJHQFHIRUHGXFDWLRQ.QRZOHGJHDQGLWV DVVHVVPHQWLQ$,HQDEOHGOHDUQLQJHFRORJLHV-RXUQDO (GXFDWLRQDO 3KLORVRSK\ DQG 7KHRU\ 'RL KWWSVGRLRUJ 9RO1RSS

:,5('$,GLDJQRVLVULVNVH[DFHUEDWLQJ PHGLFDOSUREOHPVIURP

KWWSVZLUHGMSPHPEHUVKLSDLPDNHV EDGPHGLFLQHHYHQZRUVH

-DSDQHVH&DUGLRYDVFXODU6RFLHW\*XLGHOLQHVIRU 'LDJQRVLV DQG 7UHDWPHQW RI 6OHHS DQG 5HVSLUDWRU\

'LVRUGHUVLQ&DUGLRYDVFXODU'LVHDVHV

&ROGHZH\'IURP

KWWSVMSWHFKFUXQFKFRP JRRJOHPHGLFDOUHVHDUFKHUVKXPEOHGZKHQDL VFUHHQLQJWRROIDOOVVKRUWLQUHDOOLIHWHVWLQJ

2H.7KHIXWXUHXVHRI$,LQPHGLFLQHDQGLWV FKDOOHQJHV-SQ-'UXJ,QIRUP

'LDJQRVLV DQG 7UHDWPHQW RI&DUGLRYDVFXODU 'LVHDVHV 5HSRUWRIWKH-RLQW5HVHDUFK*URXSSS

6DWR . 0HWKRG RI WUHDWLQJ VOHHS DSQHD PXOWLGLVFLSOLQDU\ WUHDWPHQW RI VOHHSGLVRUGHUHG EUHDWKLQJ&KXJDL,JDNX6\DSS 7DQDND+$ERRNRQRUWKRVWDWLFG\VUHJXODWLRQ

DGLVHDVHRIFKLOGUHQZKRFDQWJHWXSLQWKHPRUQLQJ .RGDQ6\DSS

-DSDQHVH6RFLHW\RI3HGLDWULF3V\FKRVRPDWLF0HGLFLQH *XLGHOLQHV RI WKH 6RFLHW\ RI 3HGLDWULF 3V\FKRVRPDWLF 0HGLFLQH )LYH JXLGHOLQHV IRU GDLO\

SUDFWLFH1DQNR'RSS

)LQDSUHV0HGLFDO6\VWHPVIURP)LQRPHWHU0,', KWWSZZZILQDSUHVFRP3URGXFWV)LQRPHWHU0,',

(13)

7RPRKLUR.L\RWDNL

^D

7DLVHL0L\DVDND

^D

+LNRQRVXNH$L]X

^D

DQG<RVKLQRUL)XMLVDZD

^D

D

1DWLRQDO,QVWLWXWHRI7HFKQRORJ\1DJDQR&ROOHJH 'HSWRI(OHFWRURQLFVDQG&RPSXWHU6FLHQFH1DJDQR-DSDQ

IXML[#QDJDQRQFWDFMS

$EVWUDFW

,Q2FWREHUDODUJH W\SKRRQ+$*,%,6KLW -DSDQ DQG FDXVHG KHDY\ GDPDJH WR RXU FLW\ GXH WR KHDY\ UDLQV 'XH WR WKH IORRGLQJ RI WKH ULYHU WKH UHVLGHQWVQHDUWKHULYHUZHUHHYDFXDWHG+D]DUGPDSV VKRZHG WKH GHSWK RI LQXQGDWLRQ E\ IORRGV LQ ILYH GLIIHUHQW FRORUV +RZHYHU WKH YLVXDOO\ LPSDLUHG SHRSOHFDQQRWXVHWKHVHPDSVDQGWKHUHDUHFXUUHQWO\

QRKD]DUGPDSVIRUWKHYLVXDOO\LPSDLUHG$OVRLWLV GLIILFXOW WR XVH QRUPDO KD]DUG PDS GDWD IRU WKH YLVXDOO\LPSDLUHG

7KHUH LV D PRGLILHG SRLQW PDS ZKLFK XVHV ILYH GLIIHUHQWSDWWHUQVRISRLQWPDSVDFFRUGLQJWRWKHFRORU LQIRUPDWLRQ RI WKH ILYH OHYHOV RI LQXQGDWLRQ DUHDV +RZHYHU WKHUHZDVDSUREOHPLQWKDWLWZDVGLIILFXOW WRXQGHUVWDQGWKHGLIIHUHQFHVLQWKHSDWWHUQVDQGWKH LQIRUPDWLRQ ZDV QRW UHDGDEOH ,Q UHVSRQVH WR D UHTXHVWIURPDYLVXDOO\LPSDLUHGSHUVRQZKRZDQWHG DVROXWLRQWRWKLVSUREOHPZHDUHGHYHORSLQJDIORRG KD]DUGPDSIRUWKHYLVXDOO\ LPSDLUHGVRWKDWWKH\FDQ JUDVS WKH LQXQGDWLRQ DUHD HYHQ WKRXJK WKH\ FDQQRW VHH

:HSURSRVHDPHWKRGRIUHSUHVHQWLQJWKHIORRGHG DUHDE\FXWWLQJPDWHULDOVXFKDVDQDFU\OLFVKHHWLQWKH GHSWKGLUHFWLRQLQVWHDGRIXVLQJDSRLQWPDSSDWWHUQ :HWKLQNWKDWWKLVZLOODOORZXVWRLQWXLWLYHO\NQRZWKH LQXQGDWLRQOHYHOZLWKRXUILQJHUWLSV:HKDYHIRXQG WKDW DGGLQJ RUGLQDU\ PDS GHWDLOV EXLOGLQJV URDGV HWFWRWKHLQXQGDWLRQDUHDGHWDLOVGHSWKGLUHFWLRQLV WRRPXFKLQIRUPDWLRQDQGLVGLIILFXOWWRFRPSUHKHQG VR ZH KDYH VHSDUDWHG WKH PDS SDUWLFXODUV IURP WKH LQXQGDWLRQ DUHD GHWDLOV DQG WKH WZR PDSV FDQ EH FRPSDUHG

7KHIORRGHGDUHDGDWDLVFXW LQWKHGHSWKGLUHFWLRQ WR VROYH WKH SUREOHP RI SRLQW PDSV EXW WKH PDS LQIRUPDWLRQ GRHV QRW KDYH D XQLILHG PDUN FRUUHVSRQGLQJ WR WKH PDS V\PEROV WKDW LQGLFDWH GHWDLOV VXFK DV EXLOGLQJV URDGV DQG ODQGPDUNV ,Q WKH IXWXUH ZH ZLOO SURSRVH PDUNV FRUUHVSRQGLQJ WR PDSV\PEROVWKDWFDQEHLGHQWLILHGE\WRXFKLQJZLWK DILQJHUWLS,QDGGLWLRQZHDLPWRDGRSWWKHVHV\PEROV LQERWKRXUSURSRVHGPDSVDQGWKHVWDQGDUGKD]DUG PDSVIRUWKHYLVXDOO\LPSDLUHGLQ-DSDQ

.H\ZRUGVYLVXDOO\LPSDLUHGSHRSOHKD]DUGPDS ,QWURGXFWLRQ

2Q 2FWREHU KHDY\ UDLQV IURP 7\SKRRQ 1R+$*,%,6WKDWODQGHGLQ-DSDQFDXVHG H[WHQVLYH GDPDJH WR 1DJDQR FLW\ 7KH KHDY\ UDLQV IRUFHG PDQ\

DUHDVWREHHYDFXDWHGGXHWRWKHWKUHDWRIULYHUIORRGLQJ 0DQ\UHVLGHQWVOLYLQJQHDUWKHULYHUHYDFXDWHGWRQHDUE\

HYDFXDWLRQVKHOWHUVEDVHGRQDKD]DUGPDSSXEOLVKHGE\

WKHORFDOJRYHUQPHQW +RZHYHULWZDVYHU\GLIILFXOWIRU WKH YLVXDOO\ LPSDLUHG SHRSOH WR HYDFXDWH EHFDXVH WKH\

FRXOG QRW UHDG WKH FRPPRQO\ XVHG KD]DUG PDSV 7KHUHIRUH D KD]DUG PDS VSHFLILFDOO\ IRU WKH YLVXDOO\

LPSDLUHGLVQHHGHG %UDLOOHWUDQVODWLRQYROXQWHHUVIRUWKH YLVXDOO\ LPSDLUHG SHRSOH WULHG WR FUHDWH D KD]DUG PDS ZLWKSRLQWPDSVDVVKRZQLQ)LJXUH

)LJXUH+D]DUG0DSZLWK3RLQW0DSV

7KH SRLQW PDS VKRZV D SLFWXUH DQG D GLDJUDP UHSUHVHQWHGE\SDWWHUQVRIGRWVWKDWDUHIHOW ZLWKILQJHUWLSV DQGLWXVHGWRKHOSYLVXDOO\LPSDLUHGSHRSOHXQGHUVWDQG WKH PDS E\ WRXFKLQJ LW ,Q WKH KD]DUG PDS ZLWK SRLQW PDSVUDLOURDGWUDFNVRUURDGVDQGVRRQ DUHUHSUHVHQWHG E\ D VHULHV RI SRLQWV DQG WKH LQXQGDWLRQ OHYHO LV UHSUHVHQWHG E\ FKDQJLQJ WKH GHQVLW\ RU SDWWHUQ RI WKH SRLQWV DQG RWKHU EXLOGLQJV DQG DUHD QDPHV DUH

13

(14)

UHSUHVHQWHGLQ %UDLOOH 6LQFHWKHSRLQWPDSLVDIDPLOLDU H[SUHVVLRQIRUYLVXDOO\LPSDLUHGSHRSOHZHWKRXJKWWKH KD]DUGPDSZLWKSRLQWPDSVZDVDYHU\JRRGLGHD

+RZHYHUWKHKD]DUGPDSZLWKSRLQWPDSVLVGLIILFXOW IRUYLVXDOO\LPSDLUHGSHRSOHWRXQGHUVWDQGHYHQLIWKH\

WRXFKLWEHFDXVHWKHUHDUHWRRPDQ\SDWWHUQVWRUHSUHVHQW 6R YLVXDOO\ LPSDLUHG SHRSOH DVNHG XV WR VROYH WKLV SUREOHP 7KHQ ZH SURSRVHG WR UHSODFH WKH SRLQW PDS ZLWKDKD]DUGPDSLQZKLFKIODWSODWHVDUHFXW DFFRUGLQJ WR LQXQGDWLRQ OHYHOV ,Q WKLV PDS WKH KLJKHU WKH LQXQGDWLRQOHYHOWKHGHHSHUWKHIODWSODWHLVFXW DQGWKH PRUHVWHSVWKDWDUHDGGHGWRUHSUHVHQWLQXQGDWLRQOHYHOV :HWKRXJKWWKDWWKLVPHWKRGFRXOGFRQYH\WKHLQXQGDWLRQ OHYHOPRUHLQWXLWLYHO\E\WRXFKWKDQWKH KD]DUGPDSZLWK SRLQWPDSVPHWKRG

,QWKLVSDSHUWKHPHWKRGRIPDNLQJ WKHKD]DUGPDSLV GHVFULEHGDQGWKHH[SODQDWLRQRIWKHFRQVWUXFWHG KD]DUG PDSLVJLYHQ )LQDOO\ ZH GHVFULEHWKHHYDOXDWLRQRIWKH HIIHFWLYHQHVVRIWKHKD]DUGPDSVZHPDGH IRUWKHYLVXDOO\

LPSDLUHGSHRSOH

+RZWR0DNHD+D]DUG0DS

7KHSURFHGXUHIRUPDNLQJ DKD]DUGPDSLVDVIROORZV HGLWWKHRULJLQDOPDSLPDJHGDWD

FRQYHUWWRJUD\VFDOHLPDJH FRQYHUWWRSRLQWVJURXSGDWD PHVKLQJ

RXWSXWWRILOHIRU FXWWLQJ VKDUSHQ PDWHULDOV

,QWKLVVHFWLRQWKHVHSURFHGXUHVDUHH[SODLQHGLQGHWDLO 7KHLPDJHGDWDRIWKHRULJLQDOPDSXVHGLQWKLVVWXG\

LVWKHDUHDDURXQG³6DQVDL6WDWLRQ´RQWKH1DJDQR&LW\

'LVDVWHU 3UHYHQWLRQ 0DS RQ WKH RIILFLDO ZHEVLWH RI 1DJDQR&LW\,PDJHGDWDRIWKHRULJLQDOPDS LVVKRZQLQ )LJXUH

)LJXUH2ULJLQDO+D]DUG0DS

,QWKHKD]DUGPDSVKRZQLQ)LJXUHWKHLQXQGDWLRQ DUHDV RQ WKH JHQHUDO PDS DUH SDLQWHG ZLWK FRORUV FRUUHVSRQGLQJWRWKHLQXQGDWLRQOHYHO 7KLVKD]DUGPDS FRQWDLQV VR PXFK LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW EXLOGLQJV RU URDGV DQGRWKHUIHDWXUHV WKDWYLVXDOO\LPSDLUHGSHRSOH FDQQRW XQGHUVWDQGHYHQLIWKH\WRXFK WKHPDSWKDWKDVEHHQFXW DV LW LV 7KHUHIRUH LW LV QHFHVVDU\ IRU XVHUV WR HGLW WKH RULJLQDO LPDJH GDWD WR UHWDLQ RQO\ WKH QHFHVVDU\

LQIRUPDWLRQ )LJXUH DQG DUH WKH HGLWHG YHUVLRQV EDVHGRQ)LJXUH

)LJXUH,PDJH'DWDRI,QXQGDWLRQ/HYHO

)LJXUH,PDJH'DWDRI5RDG%XLOGLQJHWF

(15)

)LJXUH,PDJH'DWDRI 5LYHU5DLOURDGHWF

)LJXUHVKRZVRQO\WKHLQXQGDWLRQOHYHOLQIRUPDWLRQ )LJXUHVKRZVURDGVEXLOGLQJVDVWDWLRQDQGDSDUWRI WKHUDLOURDGWUDFNVDQG)LJXUHVKRZVDULYHUDQGDSDUW RIWKHUDLOURDGWUDFNV)LJXUHLVWKHVRXUFHGDWDIRUWKH KD]DUGPDSRILQXQGDWLRQOHYHODQG)LJXUHV DQGDUH WKH VRXUFH GDWD IRU WKH KD]DUG PDS RI JHRJUDSKLF LQIRUPDWLRQ

$IWHUWKHRULJLQDOLPDJHGDWDKDVEHHQHGLWHGZHILUVW FRQYHUW WKH LPDJH WR D JUD\VFDOH LPDJH +HUH ZH PDNHDRQHWRRQHFRUUHVSRQGHQFHEHWZHHQ5*%YDOXHV DQGJUD\VFDOHYDOXHV )RUH[DPSOHZKHQFRQYHUWLQJWKH LPDJH GDWD RI WKH LQXQGDWLRQ OHYHO LQ )LJXUH WR JUD\VFDOH WKH FRORU RI WKH RULJLQDO LPDJH DQG WKH JUD\VFDOH YDOXH KDYH D FRUUHVSRQGHQFH UHODWLRQVKLS DV VKRZQLQ7DEOH

7DEOH &RUUHVSRQGHQFH EHWZHHQ &RORU DQG *UD\VFDOH 9DOXHV

,QXQGDWLRQ

/HYHO )XOO &RORU

9DOXH 'HSWKV

>PP@ *UD\VFDOH

&RORU9DOXH

)))

(((%

'($)

)'(&

$%

1DWXUDOO\ZHZLOOQRWFXWDUHDVWKDWGR QRWIORRG )LJXUHVKRZVWKHFRORULPDJHLQ)LJXUHFRQYHUWHG WRDJUD\VFDOH LPDJH XVLQJ7DEOH

)LJXUH,PDJH'DWDRI,QXQGDWLRQ/HYHOZLWKJUD\VFDOH 7KHFXWWLQJGHSWKVLQ7DEOHZHUHFDOFXODWHGEDVHG RQ)HFKQHUVODZ

7KH QH[W VWHS LV WR FRQYHUW WKH JUD\VFDOH LPDJH LQ )LJXUHLQWRWKUHHGLPHQVLRQDOSRLQWVJURXS GDWD 7KH SRVLWLRQRIHDFK SL[HOLQWKH JUD\VFDOHLPDJHLVGHILQHG DVWKH[DQG\FRRUGLQDWHVDQGWKHFRORULQIRUPDWLRQRI WKHJUD\OHYHOV LVGHILQHGDVWKH]FRRUGLQDWH

7KH WKUHHGLPHQVLRQDO SRLQWV JURXS GDWD KDV QR VXUIDFHVRLWFDQQRWEHFXW 7KHUHIRUHLWLVQHFHVVDU\WR FUHDWHDVXUIDFHEDVHGRQWKHSRLQWJURXS GDWDZKLFKLV FDOOHG ³PHVKLQJ´ $V IRU PHVKLQJ VRIWZDUH ZH XVHG 0HVK/DE 7KH UHVXOWV RI PHVKLQJ ZLWK 0HVK/DE DUH RXWSXW DV D ILOH IRU D FXWWLQJ PDFKLQH DQG LQSXW WR WKH FXWWLQJPDFKLQHWRPDNH DKD]DUGPDS

+D]DUG0DSVZH&UHDWHG

,QWKLVVWXG\ZHKDYHUHSHDWHGO\PDGHHYDOXDWHG DQGLPSURYHGWKHKD]DUGPDSV 7KHUHIRUHWKHUHKDYH EHHQSURWRW\SHVVRIDUDQGLQVWHDGRILQWURGXFLQJDOO RI WKHP ZH ZLOO LQWURGXFH WKH RQHV ZLWK VLJQLILFDQW FKDQJHVDQGWKHSURWRW\SHV WKDWZHUH XVHGLQWKHPHHWLQJ IRUWKHYLVXDOO\LPSDLUHGSHRSOH

)LJXUHVKRZVWKHILUVWKD]DUGPDSWKDWZDVFXW

15

(16)

$XJXVW7XUNX)LQODQG )LJXUH)LUVW 3URWRW\SHRI+D]DUG0DS

7KLVLVDQXQHGLWHGFXWWLQJRIWKHLPDJHGDWDRIWKHFRORU KD]DUGPDSVKRZQLQ)LJXUH 7KHUHDUHQRLQXQGDWLRQ OHYHOV DQG DOO JHRJUDSKLF LQIRUPDWLRQ LV LQFOXGHG 7KH VL]HLVPP VTXDUH DQGWKHWKLFNQHVVLVPP

)LJXUHVKRZVWKHVHFRQGSURWRW\SH

)LJXUH6HFRQG3URWRW\SHRI+D]DUG0DS

8QOLNHWKHILUVWSURWRW\SHRQO\WKHDGGLWLRQRIVWHSV DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH LQXQGDWLRQ OHYHO DQG QHFHVVDU\

JHRJUDSKLFLQIRUPDWLRQKDGEHHQ UHWDLQHG 7KHILYHVWHSV DUHLPSOHPHQWHGEDVHGRQ)HFKQHUVODZ 7KHPDWHULDOLV FKHPLFDO ZRRG WKH VL]H LV [ PP DQG WKH WKLFNQHVVLVPP

)LJXUHV DQG VKRZ WKH KD]DUG PDS RI WKH WKLUG SURWRW\SH )URP WKH WKLUG SURWRW\SH WKH PDSV DUH VHSDUDWHG LQWRWZRFDWHJRULHV2QHRIWKHPLVDPDSZLWK JHRJUDSKLFLQIRUPDWLRQRQO\DQGWKHRWKHURQHLVDPDS ZLWKLQXQGDWLRQOHYHOVRQO\%\WRXFKLQJDQGFRPSDULQJ WKH GLIIHUHQW PDSV RI WKH VDPH DUHD WKH XVHU FDQ XQGHUVWDQGWKHLQIRUPDWLRQRIWKHLQXQGDWLRQDUHD )URP WKLVSURWRW\SHZHXVHGDFU\OLFSODWHVDVWKHPDWHULDO 7KH DGYDQWDJHRIWKLVPDWHULDOLVWKDWLWLV WUDQVSDUHQWVRZKHQ

LWLVSODFHGRQWKHPDSWKHFRORULQIRUPDWLRQFDQEHWDNHQ LQ

)LJXUH7KLUG3URWRW\SHRI0DSDURXQG³6DQVDL6WDWLRQ´

)LJXUH,QXQGDWLRQ/HYHO0DSRI6DPHDUHDWR)LJXUH 7KHPDSRIWKHDUHDDURXQG³6DQVDL6WDWLRQ´LQ)LJXUH KDVEHHQFXWGRZQWROHDYHWKHPDLQURDGVEXLOGLQJV VWDWLRQ UDLOURDG WUDFNV ULYHU DQG SRQG 5RDGV DUH UHSUHVHQWHG E\ FRQYH[ OLQHV ULYHUV DUH UHSUHVHQWHG E\

FRQFDYH OLQHV DQG UDLOURDG WUDFNV DUH UHSUHVHQWHG E\

DOWHUQDWHO\ FRQFDYH DQG FRQYH[ OLQHV 7KH PDS RI LQXQGDWLRQ OHYHOV LQ )LJXUH KDV WKH IROORZLQJ WZR IHDWXUHV

'LIIHUHQFHLQVWHSVSHUIORRGLQJOHYHO 3DWWHUQIRUHDFKIORRGLQJOHYHO

,Q RUGHU WR PDNH LW HDVLHU WR QRWLFH FKDQJHV LQ WKH LQXQGDWLRQOHYHOHDFKLQXQGDWLRQOHYHOLVPDUNHGZLWKD VWHSDQGLQWKLVSURWRW\SHGDWDWKHGHHSHUWKHVWHSWKH KLJKHU WKH LQXQGDWLRQ OHYHO )HFKQHUV ODZ ZDV XVHG WR PDNHWKHFKDQJHVLQWKHVWHSVPRUHSHUFHSWLEOH

:HPDGHLWSRVVLEOHWRJUDVSWKHLQXQGDWLRQ OHYHORI WKHSODFHXVHUVDUHWRXFKLQJE\PDNLQJDGLIIHUHQFHLQWKH WDFWLOH VHQVDWLRQ DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH LQXQGDWLRQ OHYHO WKURXJK WKH SDWWHUQ RI HDFK LQXQGDWLRQ OHYHO ,Q WKLV

(17)

SURWRW\SHGDWDDYHUWLFDOVWULSHSDWWHUQLVDGRSWHGDQGWKH QDUURZHUWKHGLVWDQFHEHWZHHQWKHVWULSHVWKHKLJKHUWKH LQXQGDWLRQOHYHODQGWKLVSDWWHUQDOVRUHSUHVHQWVWKHQRUWK DQGVRXWK

(YDOXDWLRQ

:HKDGYLVXDOO\LPSDLUHGSHRSOHDFWXDOO\WRXFKWKH SURWRW\SHKD]DUGPDSV)LJXUHWKDWZHKDGPDGHDQG UHFHLYHG D ORW RI IHHGEDFN ,Q WKH ILUVW DQG VHFRQG SURWRW\SHVPDQ\SHRSOHFRPPHQWHGWKDWWKHUHZDVWRR PXFKLQIRUPDWLRQRQWKHPDS 6RPHSHRSOHWKRXJKWLW ZRXOG EH EHWWHU WR KDYH D SDWWHUQ IRU HDFK LQXQGDWLRQ OHYHOVRZHDGGHGDSDWWHUQLQWKHWKLUGSURWRW\SH

)LJXUH$YLVXDOO\LPSDLUHGSHUVRQWRXFKLQJWKHPDSV

,Q WKH WKLUG SURWRW\SH E\ VHSDUDWLQJ WKH PDS ZLWK JHRJUDSKLF LQIRUPDWLRQ DQG WKH PDS ZLWK LQXQGDWLRQ OHYHOVZHZHUHDEOHWRUHGXFHWKHDPRXQWRILQIRUPDWLRQ LQ HDFK PDS %\ WRXFKLQJ DQG FRPSDULQJ WKHVH PDSV YLVXDOO\ LPSDLUHG SHRSOH ZLOO EH DEOH WR UHFRJQL]H WKH LQXQGDWLRQOHYHOLQWKHLUOLYLQJDUHDDQGNQRZKRZWRJHW WRWKHQHDUHVWHYDFXDWLRQVKHOWHU

&RQFOXVLRQV

,Q UHVSRQVH WR D UHTXHVW IURP YLVXDOO\ LPSDLUHG SHRSOHWKLVVWXG\SURSRVHGDWKUHHGLPHQVLRQDOKD]DUG PDSWKDWH[SUHVVHVFKDQJHVLQLQXQGDWLRQOHYHOZLWKVWHSV LQVWHDG RI D SRLQW PDS DQG WKH PDS ZDV UHSHDWHGO\

PDGHHYDOXDWHGDQGLPSURYHG$VDUHVXOWLWZDV IRXQG WKDW LW LV HIIHFWLYH WR H[SUHVV WKH FKDQJH RI LQXQGDWLRQOHYHODVDVWHSZKLFKLVWKHPDLQIHDWXUHRI WKLVVWXG\7KHDPRXQWRIFKDQJHLQWKHVWHSZDVGHFLGHG E\ XVLQJ )HFKQHUV ODZ ,W ZDV DOVR GHFLGHG WR PDNH KD]DUG PDSV VHSDUDWHO\ IRU LQXQGDWLRQ OHYHOV DQG JHRJUDSKLF LQIRUPDWLRQ ,Q WKH KD]DUG PDS RI WKH LQXQGDWLRQOHYHOLWZDVGHFLGHGWRH[SUHVVWKHLQXQGDWLRQ OHYHOE\DGGLQJDYHUWLFDOVWULSHSDWWHUQDQGFKDQJLQJWKH LQWHUYDO LQ DGGLWLRQ WR WKH VWHSV )RU WKH JHRJUDSKLF LQIRUPDWLRQ PDSV WKH VSHFLILFDWLRQ LV WR DGG PDMRU EXLOGLQJVURDGVDQGRWKHUJHRJUDSKLFLQIRUPDWLRQWKDW WKHXVHUGHHPVQHFHVVDU\

$V D IXWXUH LVVXH WKH JHRJUDSKLF LQIRUPDWLRQ PDSV QHHGWREHLPSURYHGLQWKHZD\WKH\UHSUHVHQWEXLOGLQJV

&XUUHQWO\ ZH DUH PDNLQJ VHYHUDO SHUFHSWLEOH PDUNV WR

PDNH D RQHWRRQH PDSSLQJ EHWZHHQ EXLOGLQJV DQG PDUNV OLNH )LJXUH 7KH JRDO LV WR PDNH LW FRPPRQ WKURXJKRXWRXUFRXQWU\

)LJXUH6RPHPDUNV

:H ZRXOG OLNH WR H[SUHVV RXU JUDWLWXGH WR WKH PHPEHUVRIWKH.LWD1DJDQR$UHD8'6WXG\*URXSIRU WKHLUPDQ\FRPPHQWVRQWKLVUHVHDUFK

5HIHUHQFHV

1DJDQR &LW\ 1DJDQR &LW\ 'LVDVWHU 3UHYHQWLRQ 0DS

5HWULHYHG IURP

KWWSVZZZFLW\QDJDQRQDJDQRMSXSORDGHGDWWDFKPHQW SGI

6HLLFKLUR 1$0%$ 3V\FKRSK\VLFV DQG WRQH TXDOLW\

5HWULYHG IURP

KWWSVZZZMVWDJHMVWJRMSDUWLFOHWMDBBDUWLF DUFKDUMD

7HWVX\D:DWDQDEH+LURWVXJX.DJD0DNRWR.RED\DVKL .D]XQRUL 0LQDWDQL 6XUYH\V RQ 7DFWLOH *UDSKLF

&RQYHUVLRQ 6HUYLFH IRU WKH %OLQG 5HWULYHG IURP KWWSVZZZMVWDJHMVWJRMSDUWLFOHKLVBBDUWL FOHFKDUHQ

17

(18)

'(9(/230(172):($5$%/(%5$,//(5($'(5

$NLKD<DQDJLVDZD

^D

DQG6KRLFKL,WR

^D

D

1DWLRQDO,QVWLWXWHRI7HFKQRORJ\1DJDQR&ROOHJH1DJDQR-DSDQ

#JQDJDQRQFWDFMS

$EVWUDFW

%UDLOOH LV WKH PRVW XQLYHUVDO WDFWLOH ODQJXDJH IRU YLVXDOO\ LPSDLUHG SHRSOH ,W LV LQIHUUHG WKDW DERXW RIYLVXDOO\LPSDLUHGSHRSOHLQ-DSDQFDQQRWUHDG

%UDLOOH,IWKH\FDQHDVLO\UHDG%UDLOOHWH[WZLWKVRPH GHYLFHVWKH\ZLOOLPSURYHWKHLUTXDOLW\RIOLIH:HDUH GHYHORSLQJ D QHZ ZHDUDEOH GHYLFH ZKLFK HQDEOHV YLVXDOO\ LPSDLUHG SHRSOH WR UHDG %UDLOOH ZLWK WKHLU ILQJHU 8VHUV RI WKLV GHYLFH DWWDFK D SUHVVXUH VHQVRU RQWRWKHLUILQJHUWLSV8VHUVWUDFHWKH%UDLOOHWH[WZLWK WKH VHQVRU WKHQ WKH\ FDQ KHDU WKH YRLFH ZKLFK WUDQVODWHWH[WVIURP%UDLOOHLQWR-DSDQHVH7KLVGHYLFH DOVRLPSOHPHQWVVSHOOFRUUHFWLRQPHFKDQLVPZKLFKLV VSHFLDOL]HG IRU %UDLOOH ,W FRUUHFWV ZURQJ VSHOOLQJ RI

%UDLOOHWH[WVZKLFKRULJLQDWHVIURPODFNRUH[FHVVRI

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

.H\ZRUGV%UDLOOH YLVXDOO\ LPSDLUHG SHRSOH SUHVVXUH VHQVRUZHDUDEOHGHYLFHVSHOOFRUUHFWRU

,QWURGXFWLRQ

%UDLOOH LV WKH PRVW XQLYHUVDO WDFWLOH ODQJXDJH IRU YLVXDOO\ LPSDLUHG SHRSOH ,W ZDV LQYHQWHG E\ D )UHQFK /RXLV %UDLOOH LQ DQG SUHYDLOHG DURXQG WKH ZRUOG 7KLV WDFWLOH V\VWHP LV XVHIXO LQ WHUPV RI UHFHLYLQJ LQIRUPDWLRQHJ%UDLOOHJXLGHSODWHDWWKHVWDWLRQDVZHOO DVUHDGLQJERRNVDQGZULWLQJWH[W7KLVDOORZVWKHPWRJR RXWVLGHRQWKHLURZQ

,Q-DSDQWKHQXPEHURIYLVXDOO\LPSDLUHGSHRSOHLV DSSUR[LPDWHO\ DQG LW LV HVWLPDWHG WKDW DERXW RIWKHPDUH%UDLOOHXVHUV7KH\PXVWOHDUQ%UDLOOH JUDPPDU D FRPSOH[ V\VWHP RI VSHFLDO FKDUDFWHUV DQG

OHWWHU FRPELQDWLRQV DQG WUDLQ WKHPVHOYHV WR UHDG PDQ\

VPDOO GRWV RI LWV OHWWHUV /HDUQLQJ %UDLOOH LV VDLG WR EH GLIILFXOWWRDFKLHYHDIWHUWKHDJHRIZKLFKPHDQVWKDW SHRSOH ZKR ORVH WKHLU VLJKW ODWHU LQ WKHLU OLIH ILQG GLIILFXOW\LQWKHLUOHDUQLQJRILW

7KH SXUSRVH RI WKLV VWXG\ LV WR GHYHORS D QHZ ZHDUDEOH GHYLFH WKDW VXSSRUWV YLVXDOO\ LPSDLUHG SHRSOH ZKR QHHG %UDLOOH DQG KDYH WURXEOH LQ LWV OHDUQLQJ 7KH GHYLFHQDPHG³ZHDUDEOH%UDLOOHUHDGHU´LVHTXLSSHGZLWK DYHU\VPDOOVL]HSUHVVXUHVHQVRUDPLFURFRPSXWHUZLWK DUHFKDUJHDEOHEDWWHU\DQGD%OXHWRRWKHDUSKRQH8VHUV WUDFH%UDLOOHWH[WZLWKWKHSUHVVXUHVHQVRUDWWDFKHGRQWR WKHLU LQGH[ ILQJHUV 7KH PLFURFRPSXWHU RI WKH V\VWHP FRQYHUWVSUHVVXUHGLVWULEXWLRQGDWDLQWR%UDLOOHWH[WVWKHQ XVHUV FDQ KHDU -DSDQHVHWUDQVODWHG WH[W ZLWK WKH

%OXHWRRWKHDUSKRQH

6\VWHP2YHUYLHZDQG7\SLFDO8VH

7KHSLFWXUHRIWKHZKROHV\VWHPLVVKRZQLQ)LJXUH

)LJXUH6\VWHP2YHUYLHZ

$SUHVVXUHVHQVRUWKHOHIWLQ)LJXUHLVFRQQHFWHG WRDPRELOHFRPSXWHUYLD86%,WGRHVQRWQHHGLWVRZQ EDWWHU\EHFDXVHLWZRUNVZLWK86%EXVSRZHUVXSSO\

IURPWKHPRELOHFRPSXWHU:HXVH5DVSEHUU\3L PRGHO%53LDVDPRELOHFRPSXWHUWKHULJKWWRSLQ )LJXUH$LQFKWRXFKFRQWURO/&'VFUHHQLV GLUHFWO\FRQQHFWHGRQWR53L53LDQG/&'LVGULYHQ ZLWKSRZHUVXSSO\IURPDUHFKDUJHDEOHPRELOHEDWWHU\

(19)

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

7\SLFDOXVHRIWKLVV\VWHPLVDVIROORZV:HDVVXPH WKDWXVHUVRIWKHV\VWHPDWWDFKWKHSUHVVXUHVHQVRURQWR WKHLUILQJHUWLSVSXWWKHHDUSKRQHRQWKHLUHDUVDQGSXW WKHPRELOHFRPSXWHUDQGWKHEDWWHU\LQWRDSRFNHW8VHUV WUDFH %UDLOOH WH[W ZLWK WKHLU LQGH[ ILQJHUV WKHQ WKH SUHVVXUHVHQVRUGHWHFWVH[LVWHQFHRIGRWV RI%UDLOOH WH[WV DVDSUHVVXUHGLVWULEXWLRQ7KHPRELOHFRPSXWHUDQDO\VHV DQ DUUDQJHPHQW RI WKH GRWV IURP SUHVVXUH GLVWULEXWLRQ GDWDDQGWUDQVODWHVWKHPLQWRDWH[WRIVSRNHQODQJXDJH

&XUUHQW YHUVLRQ RI WKH V\VWHP FDQ WUDQVODWH %UDLOOH RI -DSDQHVH VW\OH JUDPPDU LQWR -DSDQHVH 7UDQVODWHG WH[WV DUHUHDGRXWE\DEXLOWLQVSHHFKV\QWKHVLVV\VWHP8VHUV FDQ KHDU WKH %UDLOOH WH[WV DV D YRLFH ZLWK %OXHWRRWK HDUSKRQH

)LJXUH VKRZV D IORZ RI GDWD DQG SURFHVVLQJ 7KH GDVKHG OLQH IUDPH LQ WKH ILJXUH PHDQV WKH RSHUDWLRQV ZKLFKDUH SURFHVVHGE\WKH PRELOHFRPSXWHUDQGLWVEXLOW LQV\VWHPVRIWZDUH

)LJXUH)ORZRIGDWDDQGSURFHVVLQJ

3UHVVXUH6HQVRU DQG'HWHFWLQJ%UDLOOH

3UHVVXUHVHQVRULVDNH\GHYLFHRIRXUV\VWHP ,W GHWHFWVDQDUUDQJHPHQWRI%UDLOOHGRWVDVDSUHVVXUH GLVWULEXWLRQGDWD :HXVH<3863$ SUHVVXUHVHQVRU ERDUGE\,QDED5XEEHU&ROWG ZKLFKLVVKRZQLQ )LJXUH

)LJXUH3UHVVXUHVHQVRUDQGLWVFLUFXLWERDUG

7KH SUHVVXUH VHQVRU RI WKLV SURGXFW KDV E\

VHQVRU FHOO ZLWKLQ FP VTXDUH FRQGXFWLYH UXEEHU WLS DUURZHGLQ)LJXUHZHSODFHGDFRLQLQWKHULJKWRIWKH WLSWRFRPSDUHWKHVL]H7KLVSUHVVXUHVHQVRUWLSLVVPDOO EXWWLJKWO\ERQGHGZLWKDFPVTXDUHFLUFXLWERDUG7KLV IDFWPDNHVRXUGHYLFHXQZHDUDEOH,QRUGHUWRDWWDFKWKH VHQVRU WLS RQWR WKH ILQJHUWLS RI D XVHU LW VKRXOG EH VHSDUDWHGIURPWKHFLUFXLWERDUG LQWKHIXWXUHZRUN

7KH VLGH YLHZ RI RQH %UDLOOH GRW LV GRPH IRUP DV VKRZQLQ)LJXUH7KHGLDPHWHURIRQH%UDLOOHGRWLH YDULDEOHGLQ)LJXUHLVDERXWPP7KHKHLJKWRI RQH

%UDLOOHGRWKLQ)LJXUHLVDERXWPP6LQFHRQO\WKH DSH[ RI %UDLOOH GRW FDQ FRQWDFW D VHQVRU FHOO WKH UHVROXWLRQRIWKHSUHVVXUHVHQVRUPXVWEHYHU\KLJK7KH VL]HRIHDFKVHQVRUFHOORI<3863$LVPPVTXDUH DQG HDFK RI WKH FHOO FDQ GLVWLQJXLVK WKH VWUHQJWK RI SUHVVXUH LQ VWHSV 7KLV VL]H LV HQRXJK WR GHWHFW LVRODWHG%UDLOOHGRWVDVSUHVVXUHGLVWULEXWLRQ

)LJXUH6LGHYLHZRIRQH%UDLOOHGRW

$ VHW RI SUHVVXUH GLVWULEXWLRQ GDWD REWDLQHG E\ WKH SUHVVXUHVHQVRUZLOOVHQWLQWRDPRELOHFRPSXWHU$VHWRI 3UHVVXUHGLVWULEXWLRQGDWDIRURQH%UDLOOHSKUDVHFRQVLVWV

19

(20)

RI WR IUDPHV 6\VWHP VRIWZDUH RQ WKH PRELOH FRPSXWHU UHFRQVWUXFWV DQ DUUDQJHPHQW RI %UDLOOH GRWV IURP D SUHVVXUH GDWD VHW DQG VHSDUDWHV WKHVH GRWV LQWR LVRODWHG%UDLOOHOHWWHUV

6SHOO&RUUHFWRUIRU%UDLOOH

$VH[SODLQHGEHIRUHDVHWRI3UHVVXUHGLVWULEXWLRQ GDWDIRURQH%UDLOOHSKUDVHFRQVLVWVRIWRIUDPHV (DFKIUDPHPD\FRQWDLQHUURUGDWDVXFKDVDODFNRI

%UDLOOHGRWRUWKHJKRVWRIGRWZKLFKDSSHDUV

DFFLGHQWDOO\8VHUVPD\JHWZURQJ%UDLOOHWH[WVLIZH FRQYHUWWKHVHHUURUFRQWDLQLQJSUHVVXUHGLVWULEXWLRQGDWD LQWR%UDLOOHPHFKDQLFDOO\$VDUHVXOWXVHUVRIRXU V\VWHPZLOOJHWPHDQLQJOHVVWUDQVODWHGVHQWHQFHV:H VKRZDQH[DPSOHLQ)LJXUH7KHOHIWLQ)LJXUHVKRZV DZRUGGRJLQ%UDLOOH,IRQHGRWLQWKHVHFRQGOHWWHURI WKLVZRUGLVORVWZKLOHXVHUVRIRXUV\VWHPWUDFHV WKLV

%UDLOOHGRWVWKHV\VWHPZLOOWUDQVODWHLWDVGNJ

)LJXUH$ODFNRI%UDLOOHGRW

:HKDYHLPSOHPHQWHGDVSHOOFRUUHFWLRQV\VWHP ZKLFKLVVSHFLDOL]HGIRU%UDLOOHWRFRUUHFWWKHVHUHDG HUURUV2XUVSHOOFRUUHFWRUVHDUFKHVWKHZRUGIRUZKLFK WKHDUUDQJHPHQWRIWKH%UDLOOHGRWVLVWKHFORVHVWWR GNJDQGILQGVRXWGRJDVLWV VROXWLRQ

,QDGGLWLRQWRWKHFDVHRIUHDGHUURUVZHPXVW FRQVLGHUDQLQYHUVHO\WUDFHG%UDLOOH/HWXVFRQVLGHUD

%UDLOOHWH[WZKLFKLVSULQWHGRQWKHOLGRIURXQGVKDSH ERWWOHV9LVXDOO\LPSDLUHGSHRSOHGRQWNQRZZKLFKLV WKHFRUUHFWGLUHFWLRQWRWUDFHEHFDXVHWKH\FDQQRWVHH ZKLFKLVWKHXSZDUGGLUHFWLRQRIOHWWHUV)LJXUHVKRZV DQH[DPSOHRI%UDLOOHLQDFRUUHFWGLUHFWLRQDQGWKHVDPH URWDWHGLQGHJUHHV7KHOHIWLQ)LJXUHPHDQVD ZRUGRIKLQW,IXVHUV WUDFH WKLV%UDLOOHLQDUHYHUVHG GLUHFWLRQWKH\ZLOOJHWDPHDQLQJOHVVZRUGWLDV VKRZQLQWKHULJKWLQ)LJXUH2XUVSHOOFRUUHFWRU JHQHUDWHVWKHURWDWHGGRWDUUDQJHPHQWLQWHUQDOO\DQG VHDUFKHVIURPWKHGLFWLRQDU\WKHZRUGVFRUUHVSRQGLQJWR WKHLQSXWWHGGRWDUUDQJHPHQW DVZHOODVWKHURWDWHGGRW DUUDQJHPHQW$VDUHVXOWWKHV\VWHPILQGVWKHZRUG

³KLQW´DQGGHWHFWV WKDWWKHUHLVQRZRUGWL,W UHFRJQL]HVWLDV WKH UHYHUVHO\WUDFHGZRUGRIWKH LQSXWWHGGRWDUUDQJHPHQWIRUKLQWDQGFRUUHFWVLW 7KH VSHOOGLFWLRQDU\RIWKHV\VWHPLQFOXGHV -DSDQHVHZRUGVPRVWRIZKLFKDUH QRXQV

)LJXUH5RWDWHG%UDLOOHWH[W

%UDLOOHWR-DSDQHVH7UDQVODWLRQ(QJLQH

:HKDYHLPSOHPHQWHGDKLJKSUHFLVLRQ%UDLOOHWR -DSDQHVHWUDQVODWLRQHQJLQHIRUWKHZHDUDEOH%UDLOOH UHDGHU ,WUHFRJQL]HVDOPRVWDOOJUDPPDUVRI-DSDQHVH

%UDLOOHV\VWHPDQGLWFDQ WUDQVODWHJHQHULF%UDLOOHWH[WV LQWR-DSDQHVH

7DEOHVKRZVWKHSK\VLFDOGLPHQVLRQVRI%UDLOOHLQ VRPHFRXQWULHVLIYDOXHWDNHVDUDQJHZHVKRZLWV PHGLDQ7KHXQLWVLQWKHWDEOHDUH PLOOLPHWHU9DULDEOHV DESDQGTDUH FRUUHVSRQGLQJWRWKHVDPHV\PEROLQ )LJXUH)RUWXQDWHO\VLQFHWKHSK\VLFDOGLPHQVLRQVRI

%UDLOOHDUHDOPRVWWKHVDPHEHWZHHQPDQ\FRXQWULHV HJ7KH$FFHVVLEOH'HVLJQ)RXQGDWLRQRI-DSDQ 8.$VVRFLDWLRQIRU$FFHVVLEOH)RUPDWV 1DWLRQDO/LEUDU\6HUYLFHIRUWKH%OLQGDQG3K\VLFDOO\

+DQGLFDSSHGRIWKH/LEUDU\RI&RQJUHVV

$XVWUDOLDQ%UDLOOH$XWKRULW\LWLVSRVVLEOHWR VZLWFKWRWKHRWKHUODQJXDJHYHUVLRQRIZHDUDEOH%UDLOOH UHDGHUVLPSO\UHSODFLQJWKHWUDQVODWLRQHQJLQH:HDUH ZRUNLQJRQ%UDLOOHWR8(%WUDQVODWLRQHQJLQH8QLILHG (QJOLVK%UDLOOHRU8(%LVDFRPPRQO\XVHG%UDLOOH V\VWHPLQ(QJOLVKVSRNHQFRXQWULHV

7DEOH3K\VLFDOGLPHQVLRQVRI%UDLOOHLQHDFKFRXQWU\

D E S T

-DSDQ

8.

86&DQDGD

$XVWUDOLD

)LJXUH3K\VLFDOGLPHQVLRQVRI%UDLOOH 7HVW RIWKH6\VWHP

:HVKRZWKHUHVXOWVRIDUHDGLQJWHVWRI%UDLOOHZLWK RXUGHYLFH:HFDQQRWWUDFH%UDLOOHWH[WZLWKWKLVVHQVRU VLQFH WKH SUHVVXUH VHQVRU WLS LV WLJKWO\ ERQGHG ZLWK LWV FLUFXLWERDUGDVVKRZQLQ)LJXUH7KHUHIRUHZHPDGH

%UDLOOH SODWHV WR LQSXW %UDLOOH LQWR WKH VHQVRU $Q ([DPSOHRI%UDLOOHSODWHVLV VKRZQLQ)LJXUH7KHWRS LQ WKH ILJXUH LV D %UDLOOH SODWH ZKLFK PHDQV 6WDLUV LQ

K LQ W W L

(21)

-DSDQHVHDQGLWVFRUUHVSRQGLQJ%UDLOOHGRWV7KHERWWRP LV%RRNDQGLWV%UDLOOHGRWVLQ(QJOLVK%UDLOOHJUDPPDU

$VLPSOHZRUGDQGFRUUHVSRQGLQJ%UDLOOHGRWVDUHSULQWHG RQDVWLFNHU:HSXWLWRQPPE\PPDFU\OLFSODWH :HSODFHGWKHPRQWRWKHVHQVRUDQGVORZO\VOLGHVWKHP LQ D KRUL]RQWDO GLUHFWLRQ 7KLV RSHUDWLRQ PLPLFV WKH WUDFLQJ%UDLOOHZLWKDSUHVVXUHVHQVRUDWWDFKHGRQWRXVHUV LQGH[ILQJHU

)LJXUH%UDLOOHSODWHV

:HKDYHVFDQQHG%UDLOOHSODWHVZLWKRXUV\VWHP 7KHV\VWHPFRXOGUHDGRI%UDLOOHSODWHVFRUUHFWO\

7UDQVODWHG UHVXOWV ZHUH DOVR FRUUHFW 7KH V\VWHP FRXOG UHDGRI%UDLOOHSODWHVZLWKHUURUVZLWKLQGRWV(YHQ LQWKLVFDVHXVHUVFRXOGKHDUFRUUHFWYRLFHVLQFHWKHEXLOW LQVSHOOFRUUHFWLRQV\VWHPFRUUHFWHGWKHVHHUURUV

$V IRU RWKHU QLQH FDVHV RXU V\VWHP FRXOG QRW UHFRQVWUXFWDQDUUDQJHPHQWRI%UDLOOHGRWVFRUUHFWO\,WLV GLIILFXOWWRVOLGHWKH%UDLOOHSODWHKRUL]RQWDOO\ULJKWRYHU WKHVHQVRUWLSGXHWRWKH%UDLOOHSODWHFRYHULQJWKHVHQVRU WLS7KLVPD\EHVROYHGLIZHVHSDUDWHWKHVHQVRUDQGLWV FLUFXLWERDUGDQGDWWDFKWKHVHQVRURQWRWKHILQJHUWLS

:H DOVR PHDVXUHG EDWWHU\ GXUDWLRQ WLPH RI WKLV V\VWHP :H VWDUWHG IURP IXOO\ FKDUJHG P$K PRELOH EDWWHU\ DQG PHDVXUHG LWV GXUDWLRQ WLPH XQWLO LWV SRZHULVJRLQJGRZQ:HWXUQHGRQDOOIXQFWLRQDOLW\RI 53L LH /&' %OXHWRRWK DQG :L)L DQG SOD\HG 03 PRYLH UHSHDWHGO\ 1R RSHUDWLRQV ZHUH GRQH E\LWV XVHU ZKLOH WKH WHVW :H PHDVXUHG WLPHV DQG WKH V\VWHP ZRUNHGPLQXWHVRQDYHUDJH

6XPPDU\DQG)XWXUH:RUNV

:H H[SODLQHG WKH VWDWXV RI RXU ZHDUDEOH %UDLOOH UHDGHULQWKLVSDSHU&XUUHQWYHUVLRQRIWKLVGHYLFHFDQ UHDGDERXWRIWKH%UDLOOHWH[WFRUUHFWO\,WVHHPVWKDW WKHVSHOOFRUUHFWLRQV\VWHPZRUNVZHOO7KHVHQVRURIWKLV GHYLFHKRZHYHULVWRRODUJHWREHDWWDFKHGRQWRXVHUV ILQJHUWLS:HPXVWVHSDUDWHWKHSUHVVXUHVHQVRUIURPLWV FLUFXLWERDUGWREHDWWDFKHGRQWRWKHILQJHUWLS

7KH RSHUDWLRQ RI WKH FXUUHQW V\VWHP UHTXLUHV WRXFK FRQWURORI/&'SDQHO)RUYLVXDOO\LPSDLUHGSHRSOHLWLV LPSRVVLEOHWRRSHUDWHRXUV\VWHP:HQHHGWRDGGVRPH SK\VLFDOVZLWFKHVIRURSHUDWLRQRIRXUV\VWHP

.HHSLQJ WKHVH SUREOHPV LQ PLQG ZH ZLOO FRQVLGHU PRGLI\LQJ WKH ZKROH KDUGZDUH VHW RI WKH V\VWHP WR EHFRPHPRUHVXLWDEOHWRZHDU

2Q WKH VRIWZDUH VLGH %UDLOOH WR QRQ-DSDQHVH ODQJXDJH WUDQVODWLRQ HQJLQH LV DOVR FRQVLGHUHG :H DUH GHYHORSLQJ 8(% HQJLQH DQG D VSHOO FRUUHFWLRQ V\VWHP HTXLSSHG ZLWK 8(% :H ZLOO LQFUHDVH WKH NLQGV RI ODQJXDJHVDSSOLHGWR8(%

:HZRXOGOLNHWRWKDQN<RVKLQRUL)XMLVDZDIRUXVHIXO GLVFXVVLRQV 7KLV ZRUN ZDV VXSSRUWHG E\ -636 .$.(1+,*UDQW1XPEHU-3.

5HIHUHQFHV

$XVWUDOLDQ %UDLOOH $XWKRULW\ 3K\VLFDO 6SHFLILFDWLRQV IRU %UDLOOH 5HWULHYHG IURP KWWSVEUDLOOHDXVWUDOLDRUJDERXWEUDLOOHSK\VLFDO VSHFLILFDWLRQVIRUEUDLOOH

1DWLRQDO /LEUDU\ 6HUYLFH IRU WKH %OLQG DQG 3K\VLFDOO\

+DQGLFDSSHG RI WKH /LEUDU\ RI &RQJUHVV 6SHFLILFDWLRQ %UDLOOH %RRN DQG 3DPSKOHWV

6HFWLRQ 5HWULHYHG IURP

KWWSVZZZORFJRYQOVZS

FRQWHQWXSORDGV6SHF2FWREHUILQDOB SGI

7KH$FFHVVLEOH'HVLJQ)RXQGDWLRQRI-DSDQ-,6 7$FFHVVLEOHGHVLJQ$SSOLFDWLRQRIEUDLOOH RQ VLJQDJH HTXLSPHQW DQG DSSOLDQFHV 5HWULHYHG IURP KWWSVZHEGHVNMVDRUMSERRNV:0LQGH["EXQV

\RBLG -,67$

8.$VVRFLDWLRQIRU$FFHVVLEOH)RUPDWV6WDQGDUG GLPHQVLRQV IRU WKH 8. %UDLOOH &HOO 5HWULHYHG IURP KWWSVZZZXNDDIRUJZS

FRQWHQWXSORDGV%UDLOOH6WDQGDUG 'LPHQVLRQVSGI

21

(22)

**(9$/8$7,212)35(3Q*2**

⁷⁰

%8))(5)25'1$(;75$&7,21,185,1(

6$03/(

.31JDL

^D

DQG&.:DQ

^D

D

'HSDUWPHQWRI+HDOWKDQG/LIH6FLHQFHV+RQJ.RQJ,QVWLWXWHRI9RFDWLRQDO(GXFDWLRQ6KD7LQ +RQJ.RQJ

FNZDQ#YWFHGXKN

$EVWUDFW

9DULRXV KXPDQ VDPSOHV DUH XVHG IRU '1$

DQDO\VLV 3UHSQ*R KDV ORQJ EHHQ XVHG IRU WKH H[WUDFWLRQRI'1$LQEXFFDOVZDEVDQGEORRGVDPSOHV ,W LV D FRQYHQLHQW DQG UHOLDEOH PHWKRG E\ XVLQJ DQ H[WUDFWLRQ EXIIHU IRU GLUHFW 3&5 DPSOLILFDWLRQ ZLWKRXW '1$ TXDOLILFDWLRQ 7KLV VWXG\ DLPV DW HYDOXDWLQJ 3UHSQ*R IRU WKH H[WUDFWLRQ RI '1$ LQ XULQHVDPSOH ZLWKFROOHFWLQJXULQHFRQVLGHUHG WREH DGYDQWDJHRXV GXH WR LWV QRQLQYDVLYH VDPSOLQJ PHWKRG ,Q WKLV VWXG\ XULQH VDPSOHV ZLWK GLIIHUHQW YROXPH//DQG/ZHUHPL[HGZLWK

/ 3UHSQ*R %XIIHU 6DPSOHV ZHUH WKHQ DPSOLILHGGLUHFWO\XVLQJWKH9HUL)LOHU⁷⁰([SUHVV3&5 DPSOLILFDWLRQ.LW$SSOLHG%LRV\VWHPV⁷⁰(DFK3&5 UHDFWLRQ FRPSULVHG / PDVWHU PL[ DQG /

WHPSODWH'1$&DSLOODU\HOHFWURSKRUHVLVZDVFDUULHG RXWRQWKH6HTVWXGLR*HQHWLFDQDO\]HUDQGDOOHOHVZHUH GHWHUPLQHGXVLQJWKH*HQH0DSSHU,';YVRIWZDUH

$SSOLHG%LRV\VWHPV⁷⁰$WRWDORIIRXUXULQHVDPSOHV ZHUHFROOHFWHGIURPWZRPDOHVDQGWZRIHPDOHVZLWK LQIRUPHG FRQVHQW 8ULQH VDPSOH RI / DFKLHYHG VLJQLILFDQWO\VWURQJHUVLJQDOLHKLJKHUSHDNKHLJKW RI UHODWLYH IOXRUHVFHQFH XQLWV 5)8V WKDQ WKRVH RI

/DQG/VDPSOHV0RUHRYHUWKHHIILFDF\RI WZRH[WUDFWLRQPHWKRGVURRPWHPSHUDWXUHDQGKHDW SURWRFROVIURPWKHVDPHVDPSOHZDVDOVRLQYHVWLJDWHG 7KH UHVXOWV VKRZHG WKDW WKH DYHUDJH SHDN KHLJKWV IURP URRP WHPSHUDWXUH SURWRFRO ZHUH VLJQLILFDQWO\

KLJKHUWKDQLQWKHKHDWSURWRFRO,WWRRNOHVVWKDQK IRU '1$ H[WUDFWLRQ IURP WKH XULQH VDPSOHV $SDUW IURP EXFFDO VZDEV DQG EORRG VDPSOHV WKLV VWXG\

VKRZHGWKDWWKH3UHSQ*R%XIIHUFDQH[WUDFW'1$

IURPXULQHVDPSOHVGLUHFWO\,WLVDQHIILFLHQWPHWKRG IRUREWDLQLQJ'1$SURILOHVIURPXULQHVDPSOHVZKLFK JUHDWO\VKRUWHQHGWKHGXUDWLRQIRU'1$TXDOLILFDWLRQ DQGUHGXFHGWKHWXUQDURXQGWLPH

.H\ZRUGV'1$H[WUDFWLRQXULQHVDPSOHV3UHSQ*R

,QWURGXFWLRQ

7KH QRQLQYDVLYH EXFFDO VZDEV PHWKRG KDV EHHQ FRQVLGHUHGDVDFRQYHQLHQWDQGHIILFLHQWDOWHUQDWLYHWRWKH FRQYHQWLRQDOLQYDVLYH'1$VDPSOLQJRIEORRGVDPSOHV +DQVHOOH HW DO 7KH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI WKH QHZ DSSURDFK LQ '1$ DQDO\VLV KRZHYHU PLJKW VWLOO KDV VKRUWFRPLQJVVXFKDVWKHUHODWLYHO\ORQJH[WUDFWLRQWLPH DSSUR[LPDWHO\ WR KRXUV ,W DOVR LQYROYHG PXOWLSOH VDPSOHWUDQVIHUEHWZHHQFRQWDLQHUWXEHVZKLFKUHVXOWVLQ KLJKHUULVNRIFRQWDPLQDWLRQ

3UHSQ*R⁷⁰ EXIIHU KDV VKRZQ SURPLVLQJ UHVXOWV LQ UHGXFLQJ WKH H[WUDFWLRQ WLPH DQG ORZHU WKH ULVN RI FRQWDPLQDWLRQ3UHYLRXVVWXGLHVGHPRQVWUDWHGVXFFHVVIXO H[WUDFWLRQ RI '1$ IURP EXFFDO VZDEV DQG EORRG VDPSOHVUHVSHFWLYHO\ *RPHVHWDO,QWKLVVWXG\

WKHIHDVLELOLW\RIXVLQJWKH3UHSQ*R⁷⁰WRH[WUDFW'1$

IURPXULQHVDPSOHVZDVHYDOXDWHG7KHSHUIRUPDQFHRI WZR H[WUDFWLRQ SURWRFROV URRP WHPSHUDWXUH DQG KHDW SURWRFROVZDVDOVRLQYHVWLJDWHG

0DWHULDOVDQG0HWKRGV

6DPSOHFROOHFWLRQDQG'1$H[WUDFWLRQ

$WRWDORIIRXUXULQHVDPSOHVZHUHFROOHFWHGIURPWZR PDOHV DQG WZR IHPDOHV ZLWK LQIRUPHG FRQVHQW 8ULQH VDPSOHV ZLWK GLIIHUHQW YROXPH / / DQG

/ZHUHPL[HGZLWK/3UHSQ*R%XIIHU

3&5DPSOLILFDWLRQ

6DPSOHV ZHUH DPSOLILHG XVLQJ WKH 9HUL)LOHU⁷⁰ ([SUHVV3&5DPSOLILFDWLRQ.LW$SSOLHG%LRV\VWHPV⁷⁰ ,WLVDG\HVKRUWWDQGHPUHSHDW675PXOWLSOH[DVVD\

WKDWDPSOLILHVDXWRVRPDO675ORFL(DFK3&5UHDFWLRQ FRPSULVHGRI/PDVWHUPL[DQG/WHPSODWH'1$

7KHFRPSRQHQWVRIWKH3&5PL[WXUHVDUHVKRZQLQ7DEOH 7KHSURJUDPLQFOXGHGDQLQLWLDOLQFXEDWLRQVWHSDW ^R&IRUPLQXWHVDQGDGHQDWXUHVWHSDW^R&IRU VHFRQGV^R&IRUVHFRQGVIROORZHGE\^R&IRU VHFRQGV DQG ^R& IRU PLQXWHV 7KH UHDFWLRQ ZDV

(23)

SHUIRUPHGXVLQJWKH9HULWL⁷⁰7KHUPDO&\FOHUV$SSOLHG

%LRV\VWHPV)RVWHU&LW\&$ZLWKF\FOHV

7DEOH3&5DVVD\0L[&RPSRQHQW

&RPSRQHQW 9ROXPH6DPSOH

'1$WHPSODWH /

3ULPHV6HW /

0DVWHU0L[ /

(OHFWURSKRUHVLVDQGDQDO\VLV

&DSLOODU\ HOHFWURSKRUHVLV ZDV FDUULHG RXW RQ WKH 6HTVWXGLR $SSOLHG %LRV\VWHPV⁷⁰ DQG DOOHOHV ZHUH GHWHUPLQHG XVLQJ WKH *HQH0DSSHU ,'; Y VRIWZDUH

$SSOLHG %LRV\VWHPV⁷⁰ 7KH FRPSRQHQWV IRU JHQHWLF DQDO\VHUDUH VKRZQLQ7DEOH $OOGDWD ZHUH DQDO\]HG XVLQJWKH6366VWDWLVWLFDOSDFNDJHYHUVLRQ2QH ZD\ $129$ UHVXOWV VXJJHVWHG WKH VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQWKHPHDQVRIGLIIHUHQWVDPSOHV

7DEOH&RPSRQHQWIRU&DSLOODU\HOHFWURSKRUHVLV

&RPSRQHQW 9ROXPH6DPSOH

3&5SURGXFW /

/,=6L]H6WDQGDUG /

+L'LIRUPDPLGH /

5HVXOWVDQG'LVFXVVLRQ

%ORRG VDPSOHV KDYH EHHQ WUDGLWLRQDOO\ XVHG WR SURGXFH '1$ SURILOHV 7KH LQYDVLYH VDPSOH FROOHFWLRQ PHWKRGKDVEHHQZLGHO\UHSODFHGE\QRQLQYDVLYHEXFFDO VZDEV8ULQHFRXOGEHDQRWKHUSRWHQWLDOFDQGLGDWHRIQRQ LQYDVLYHVDPSOH%XWWKHUHDUHVWLOOFRQFHUQVRQWKHWLPH FRQVXPLQJ H[WUDFWLRQ VWHS 9DULRXV H[WUDFWLRQ PHWKRGV WRRNDSSUR[LPDWHO\VHYHUDOKRXUWRH[WUDFW'1$IURPWKH VDPSOHVDQGLQYROYHGVHYHUDOWXEHWUDQVIHUV'HYHORSLQJ QHZ PHWKRG WR VSHHG XS WKH H[WUDFWLRQ SURFHVV ZLWK VLPSOHSURFHGXUHFRXOGUHGXFHWKHULVNRIFRQWDPLQDWLRQ DQGHQKDQFHWKHSUHFLVLRQRIWKHDQDO\VLV

7KHUHVXOWVRIWKLVVWXG\VKRZHGWKDWWKH3UHSQ*R DSSURDFK FDQ HIIHFWLYHO\ H[WUDFW '1$ IURP WKH XULQH VDPSOH)LJXUHVKRZHGWKHJRRGTXDOLW\'1$SURILOHV IURPWKH/XULQHVDPSOHV*RPHVHWDODQG ,\DYRRHWDOREWDLQHGVLPLODUUHVXOWV

7KH VLJQDO SHDN KHLJKWV LH UHODWLYH IOXRUHVFHQFH XQLWV5)8VRIH[WUDFWLQJ'1$IURPYDULRXVYROXPHRI XULQHVDPSOHVDUHVKRZQLQ)LJXUH7KHH[WUDFWLRQKDV EHHQSHUIRUPHGXQGHUURRPWHPSHUDWXUH7KHVLJQDOSHDN KHLJKWVRIWKH/XULQHVDPSOHUHPDLQHGKLJKHUWKDQ WKDWRIWKH/DQG/VDPSOHV7KHVLJQLILFDQWO\

ZHDNHUVLJQDOIRUWKH/DQG/VDPSOHVPD\EH GXHWRWKHSUHVHQFHRIPRUH3&5LQKLELWRU

)LJXUH7KHUHODWLYHIOXRUHVFHQFHXQLWV5)8VRIXULQH VDPSOHV

)LJXUH7KHUHODWLYHIOXRUHVFHQFHXQLWV5)8VRIXULQH VDPSOHV ZLWK GLIIHUHQW XULQH YROXPHV XQGHU URRP WHPSHUDWXUHH[WUDFWLRQ

7DEOH 7XUQDURXQG WLPH 7$7 RI XULQH VDPSOHV E\

XVLQJ3UHSQ*R%XIIHU

7LPH

5RRP WHPSHUDWXUH 3URWRFRO

'1$H[WUDFWLRQ PLQV

$PSOLILFDWLRQ PLQV 6HSDUDWLRQDQG

'HWHFWLRQ

PLQV

7RWDO7$7WLPH PLQV

+HDW

3URWRFRO '1$H[WUDFWLRQ PLQ

$PSOLILFDWLRQ PLQ 6HSDUDWLRQDQG

'HWHFWLRQ PLQ

7RWDO7$7WLPH PLQV

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

23

(24)

'1$ DV DQ LQWHUQDO FRQWURO WR GHWHFW WKH SUHVHQFH RI LQKLELWRUV

&RQFOXVLRQV

7KHUHVXOWVRIWKLVVWXG\VKRZHGWKDWWKH3UHSQ*R

%XIIHUFDQH[WUDFW'1$IURPXULQHVDPSOHVGLUHFWO\,WLV DQHIILFLHQWDQGQRQLQYDVLYHPHWKRGIRUREWDLQLQJ'1$

SURILOHVZKLFKJUHDWO\VKRUWHQHGWKHGXUDWLRQIRU'1$

TXDOLILFDWLRQDQGUHGXFHGWKHWXUQDURXQGWLPH7KH3UHS Q*R DSSURDFK KDV D SRWHQWLDO WR PLQLPL]H WKH ULVN RI FURVVFRQWDPLQDWLRQ DQG WKXV HQKDQFH WKH SUHFLVLRQ RI WKHDQDO\VLV

7KHZRUNGHVFULEHGLQWKLVSDSHUZDVIXOO\VXSSRUWHG E\ WKH 'HSDUWPHQW RI +HDOWK DQG /LIH 6FLHQFHV +RQJ .RQJ,QVWLWXWHRI9RFDWLRQDO(GXFDWLRQ6KD7LQ+RQJ .RQJ

5HIHUHQFHV

*RPHV &0DUWtQH]*yPH]-'tH]-XiUH]/'tD]

6iQFKH]63DORPR'tH]6$UUR\R3DUGR(&DQR /ySH] 0 )HUQiQGH]6HUUDQR - 3UHSQ

*R⁷⁰ $ QHZ DQG IDVW H[WUDFWLRQ PHWKRG IRU IRUHQVLF EORRGVDPSOHV)RUHQVLF6FLHQFH,QWHUQDWLRQDO*HQHWLFV 6XSSOHPHQW6HULHVH±H

+DQVHOOH 7 2WWH 0 6FKQLEEH 7 6P\WKH ( .ULHJ6FKQHLGHU) ,VRODWLRQRI JHQRPLF '1$

IURP EXFFDO VZDEV IRU IRUHQVLF DQDO\VLV XVLQJ IXOO\

DXWRPDWHG VLOLFDPHPEUDQH SXULILFDWLRQ WHFKQRORJ\

/HJDO0HGLFLQH6±6

,\DYRR6.QLJKWV60DYURPPDWLV0 +DL]HO7 ,PSOHPHQWDWLRQRI3UHSQ*R⁷⁰%XIIHUIRU'1$

H[WUDFWLRQ IURP EXFFDO VZDEV )RUHQVLF 6FLHQFH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO *HQHWLFV 6XSSOHPHQW 6HULHV ±

9HUL)LOHU⁷⁰([SUHVV3&5$PSOLILFDWLRQ.LW8VHU*XLGH 7KHUPR)LVKHU6FLHQWLILF

(25)

'HYHORSPHQWRIFRPPXQLFDWLRQWRROVIRUSHRSOHZLWKVSHHFKGLIILFXOWLHV

'DLFKL0DWVX]DZD

^D

<RVKLQRUL)XMLVDZD

^D

D

1DWLRQDO,QVWLWXWHRI7HFKQRORJ\1DJDQR&ROOHJH'HSDUWPHQWRI(OHFWURQLFVDQG

&RPSXWHU6FLHQFH1DJDQR-DSDQ

IXML[#QDJDQRQFWDFMS

$EVWUDFW

:H DUH FXUUHQWO\ UHVHDUFKLQJ D UHTXHVW IURP D VSHFLDOQHHGVVFKRROWRGHYHORSDGHYLFHWKDWFDQKHOS FKLOGUHQ FRPPXQLFDWH HIIHFWLYHO\ 7KHVH QHHGV DUH UHODWHGWRFRPPXQLFDWLRQVXFKDV,ZDQWWRKHOSWKH FKLOGUHQ FRPPXQLFDWH WKHLU WKRXJKWV DQG IHHOLQJV EHWWHUDQG,ZDQWWRKHOSWKHFKLOGUHQFRPPXQLFDWH ZLWK RWKHUV EHWWHU´ 7KHVH FKLOGUHQ DUH WURXEOHG E\

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

ZLOOEHLPSURYHG)RUWKLVUHDVRQZHDUHSODQQLQJWR VDPSOH WKH YRLFHV RI SHRSOH ZLWK SURQXQFLDWLRQ GLIILFXOWLHV H[DPLQH WKH SKRQHPHV DQG GHYHORS VSHHFKUHFRJQLWLRQVRIWZDUHRSWLPL]HGIRUWKHP

.H\ZRUGV VSHHFK UHFRJQLWLRQ -XOLXV VSHHFK GLIILFXOWLHVILQJHUVSHOOLQJVLJQODQJXDJH

,QWURGXFWLRQ

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

25

Symposium on Advances in Technology Education Conference proceedings

Juha Kontio, Meiju Keinänen, Tarja Åberg & Elina Asukas (eds.)

ISATE – International